Traders and Investors

JohnDB · Jun 21, 2021

FHII said:
I got burned! I figured the market would continue to slide and sold a good portion before the bell. I didn't sell all of any stock I like, but cut them down significantly. Problem is... I picked the wrong ones!

About 15% of my portfolio is in NDVA. Over the last month they've been killing it, and I made good money. They flirted with $780 but have quickly fallen to $722. Its a tech stock, and I'm not big on them at this time, but man! It seduced me and I did good for a while! This particular stock goes through some wild swings, so it probably will come back soon. But still... I got greedy.

I have a theory about one stock in that it bounces between a high of $72 and a low of $58. Its Big Lots, by the way, and I've seen it happen 3 times this year already. Ultra low PE by the way... It got down below $64 and I'm waiting with a little bit of cash for it to drop some more (which currently, it isn't).

I am wondering if I got the nerves needed to this... I think I need to be more patient.

Here's my opinion. (I have no advice because I'm not a professional)
NVIDIA will continue up for a week or two. Then tank horribly just before or after the stock split.

Retailers are going to do a bit better as people get comfortable with getting out.
But the reduced inventories and lack of options due to supply chain interruptions it's going to kill them ultimately.

And so...

Watch for earnings and LOW forward P/E ratios... you want rising earnings and low P/E ratios... something outside of construction industry.

Growth stocks like NVDA are only going to be good for a while longer and then the Value stocks and utility stocks are going to outperform growth stocks.

Josho · Jun 22, 2021

JohnDB said:
Just give it a moment...it's looking much better today...it's going to bounce.

Stock prices that fall too far... bounce up.

Economies are going back to normal. They won't be exactly the same as pre-pandemic but they are coming back. European travel is resuming. (A huge start back to normalcy)

They aren't coming back as fast as the market keeps pricing them...but they are coming back. That super hot runup in the winter and executive leadership change is really messing with the markets... China's autocratic leadership is also not helping either. It's been the battle of the credit lines and the publicity.

So...watch for it this morning... premarket is way up. The dollar is really high this morning. (So commodities and commodity related stocks are cheap) and money is pouring into growth stocks instead of defensive value stocks today and likely will for a bit.

This is a good thing...but get ready to jump out back into value and commodities when the pullback comes.

I got out of the copper, before it fell some more last week, currently in the tungsten, it may be good to try some other sectors later though.

Have you tried the real estate sector?

JohnDB · Jun 24, 2021

Josho said:
I got out of the copper, before it fell some more last week, currently in the tungsten, it may be good to try some other sectors later though.

Have you tried the real estate sector?

Only certain REITs are being successful...most are falling in price.
Industrial metals are all about growth...they are needed for industrial purposes...just like copper.
Gold is the non industrial metal.

Growth stocks have a very limited success time left before we see the limits of the end of quarantine economies...

(World economy shrunk) so we will see a bit of a recession in the future. Value stocks and utilities will be popular this fall when it's realized. Some commodities too.

Josho · Jun 24, 2021

JohnDB said:
Only certain REITs are being successful...most are falling in price.
Industrial metals are all about growth...they are needed for industrial purposes...just like copper.
Gold is the non industrial metal.

Growth stocks have a very limited success time left before we see the limits of the end of quarantine economies...

(World economy shrunk) so we will see a bit of a recession in the future. Value stocks and utilities will be popular this fall when it's realized. Some commodities too.

What about seafood stocks? I mean I like my seafood.

And also prices can vary heaps for seafood throughout the year.

JohnDB · Jun 25, 2021

Josho said:
What about seafood stocks? I mean I like my seafood.

And also prices can vary heaps for seafood throughout the year.

Those aren't really traded as far as I know...I've never seen a seafood futures ETN.... LoL.... friends and fish....both are bad after three days in your house.

Looks like coffee futures are on their way back up. This time is mostly because of shipping concerns. Containers and ships. Vietnam coffee, African coffee, and South America coffee all are having issues getting shipped about. And if you can't get it to market it doesn't exist. (Meaning shortages)

Also housing construction is still stalled out. Same reason...ships and shipping containers for the various things like flooring, tiles and bricks, stone from quarries, and other parts that make homes nice. If you can't complete a house... you can't sell it.

I'm hoping that the foreclosures that will eventually come will loosen supply. As well as shipping to resume more towards normal. Cocoa is cheap and getting cheaper... chocolate itself is scarce and expensive. 50% up in price for what is available because of shipping concerns.

That's the story in every market at the moment.

Josho · Jun 25, 2021

JohnDB said:
Those aren't really traded as far as I know...I've never seen a seafood futures ETN.... LoL.... friends and fish....both are bad after three days in your house.

Looks like coffee futures are on their way back up. This time is mostly because of shipping concerns. Containers and ships. Vietnam coffee, African coffee, and South America coffee all are having issues getting shipped about. And if you can't get it to market it doesn't exist. (Meaning shortages)

Also housing construction is still stalled out. Same reason...ships and shipping containers for the various things like flooring, tiles and bricks, stone from quarries, and other parts that make homes nice. If you can't complete a house... you can't sell it.

I'm hoping that the foreclosures that will eventually come will loosen supply. As well as shipping to resume more towards normal. Cocoa is cheap and getting cheaper... chocolate itself is scarce and expensive. 50% up in price for what is available because of shipping concerns.

That's the story in every market at the moment.

I did find a company that specializes in Oysters on the market.

Angel Seafood Holdings, they are based in Coffin Bay, South Australia, Coffin Bay is very well known for Oysters in Australia, currently 13c per share, looking like they are at an equal 6 month low in price at the moment..

JohnDB · Jun 25, 2021

Josho said:
I did find a company that specializes in Oysters on the market.

Angel Seafood Holdings, they are based in Coffin Bay, South Australia, Coffin Bay is very well known for Oysters in Australia, currently 13c per share, looking like they are at an equal 6 month low in price at the moment..

That would be what we call a swing trade or a seasonal stock. Meaning that at certain times of the year the price goes up and at other times of the year (months without an "r" in them) it goes down.

That's a fairly popular trade to do. Just check the revenue forecasts and cash flows for profits. Might be a really good idea.

FHII · Jun 25, 2021

JohnDB said:
friends and fish....both are bad after three days in your house.

LOL!!!! I will have to remember that one... And it reminds me that I have left over tilapia in my fridge!

Josho · Jul 30, 2021

@FHII

Do you use any trading indicators?

If so, what's your favourite to use?

I have finally found the time to do more research, and think I will give using an RSI (Relative Strength Index) a shot for the next trade.

FHII · Jul 31, 2021

Josho said:
@FHII

Do you use any trading indicators?

If so, what's your favourite to use?

I have finally found the time to do more research, and think I will give using an RSI (Relative Strength Index) a shot for the next trade.

Right now I look at P/E and forward P/E and not too much else. But I realize that such is not enough. Nvda has an ultra high PE (92) and an ultra low forward PE (12 or so). Yet they are still doing ok, though not as great as the past 3 months. Interesting company, but I have heard they are somehow tied to cryptocurrency which makes me nervous.

ASO was supposed to be a breakout and looks good as PE goes. Everyone is high on them... But I'm still wating...

Then there is Big Lots... I work for the company and their PE looks great, and knowing what they do, I know why... They doubled since the pandemic but now they are a victim of it. Supply lines, brother! Its tough to keep the shelves and furniture inventory stocked! So at the beginning of the pandemic they had the inventory, other stores were forced to close and Americans got a lot of free money from the govt (esp. Amongst Big Lot shoppers who tended to be on the lower end of the social class in a financial sense).

That being said( and no great secret) I won't say too much more because I work for the company.

In any sense... I am new. I am learning and dont really understand every number I see on the charts and tables. I also look at the volume to know the general interest. After all, if the volume is low, investors don't really care and it probably won't move one way or another, but especially upward.

Then you got Wendy's. I messed with them a bit. They got caught up in that fiasco and I wish my trading platform would've allowed on the spot trades. But it looks like a decently run company and when McDonalds is at 240 and Burger King at 68, you wonder why Wendys is at 23. The food really isn't that different. Name recognition between McD and Wendys is worlds apart, but not so much between Wendys and Burger King.

Ww dys announced they opened up a restruant in England. In restruant! Yay! Progress! They are branching out into new markets! Well, ine restruant in one European country ain't going to cut it. Call me when you plan to open about a 1000 throughout Europe and then maybe we will see you sneek up on Burger King.

So... I will research RSI and try to understand it. But... In my infant level knowledge, I am looking at the state of man kind. Whats going on in the world.

Josho · Aug 2, 2021

FHII said:
Right now I look at P/E and forward P/E and not too much else. But I realize that such is not enough. Nvda has an ultra high PE (92) and an ultra low forward PE (12 or so). Yet they are still doing ok, though not as great as the past 3 months. Interesting company, but I have heard they are somehow tied to cryptocurrency which makes me nervous.

ASO was supposed to be a breakout and looks good as PE goes. Everyone is high on them... But I'm still wating...

Then there is Big Lots... I work for the company and their PE looks great, and knowing what they do, I know why... They doubled since the pandemic but now they are a victim of it. Supply lines, brother! Its tough to keep the shelves and furniture inventory stocked! So at the beginning of the pandemic they had the inventory, other stores were forced to close and Americans got a lot of free money from the govt (esp. Amongst Big Lot shoppers who tended to be on the lower end of the social class in a financial sense).

That being said( and no great secret) I won't say too much more because I work for the company.

In any sense... I am new. I am learning and dont really understand every number I see on the charts and tables. I also look at the volume to know the general interest. After all, if the volume is low, investors don't really care and it probably won't move one way or another, but especially upward.

Then you got Wendy's. I messed with them a bit. They got caught up in that fiasco and I wish my trading platform would've allowed on the spot trades. But it looks like a decently run company and when McDonalds is at 240 and Burger King at 68, you wonder why Wendys is at 23. The food really isn't that different. Name recognition between McD and Wendys is worlds apart, but not so much between Wendys and Burger King.

Ww dys announced they opened up a restruant in England. In restruant! Yay! Progress! They are branching out into new markets! Well, ine restruant in one European country ain't going to cut it. Call me when you plan to open about a 1000 throughout Europe and then maybe we will see you sneek up on Burger King.

So... I will research RSI and try to understand it. But... In my infant level knowledge, I am looking at the state of man kind. Whats going on in the world.

What about Carl Jr's are they listed?

I probably should look more at the volumes, there's not much movement for me at the moment haha. But how annoying is it, when another company in the same sector rises by 15% while yours keeps still? Lolz

It's interesting to see what's going on with Aussie Lithium stocks, they are a contrast to American Lithium stocks, most Aussie Lithium stocks have been rising high and trending upwards recently, even though some fell a bit today, American Lithium stocks haven't been doing the same from my observations, I see Lithium America is trending downwards, which is the complete opposite to most Aussie Lithium stocks.

FHII · Aug 8, 2021

Josho said:
What about Carl Jr's are they listed?

I probably should look more at the volumes, there's not much movement for me at the moment haha. But how annoying is it, when another company in the same sector rises by 15% while yours keeps still? Lolz

It's interesting to see what's going on with Aussie Lithium stocks, they are a contrast to American Lithium stocks, most Aussie Lithium stocks have been rising high and trending upwards recently, even though some fell a bit today, American Lithium stocks haven't been doing the same from my observations, I see Lithium America is trending downwards, which is the complete opposite to most Aussie Lithium stocks.

Just looked into Carls Jr. They are owned by Hardees and hardees is a CKE stock which seems like its dead. I think they were bought out a decade ago.

Not much into the Lithium market, but yes... That is interesting about the differing trends between the Aussie and US market.

I forgot another thing I tend to watch: the Futures and extended prices. It doesn't keep me from investing in something I am interested in, but it does alter my timing. For example, the Dow Jones closed Friday +144. Monday, however its going to open -73. Dollar General closed Friday up 35 cents and will open Monday another 35 cents higher.

I think this has to do with after hours trading. Like I said,it doesn't affect who I invest in, but may cause me to hold or pull the trigger on a trade. Right now, I have a little spending power as I sold most of my ASO stock (not all). Tomorrow morning I will look at the numbers again. Frankly I have a hunch Monday and Tuesday may be rough. I will just keep an eye on it. I suppose day traders use this heavily!

Now, a rant: I am into fitness as it was a profession of mine for 2 decades, and I see a lot of "get fit quick" schemes. Makes me sick! Getting fit is painful in that yes you have to diet and yes you have to exercise. There are no magic potions, exercises or plans. A knowledgable trainer can make it easier, but you still gotta work!

I am starting to think investing is the same. You gotta be smart, but it takes money to make money. Yet I am inundated on facebook with Motley Fools and "5 new stocks that will be better than Amazon!"

And I only have to pay $100 for the report! Smh....

Josho · Aug 9, 2021

FHII said:
Now, a rant: I am into fitness as it was a profession of mine for 2 decades, and I see a lot of "get fit quick" schemes. Makes me sick! Getting fit is painful in that yes you have to diet and yes you have to exercise. There are no magic potions, exercises or plans. A knowledgable trainer can make it easier, but you still gotta work!

I am starting to think investing is the same. You gotta be smart, but it takes money to make money. Yet I am inundated on facebook with Motley Fools and "5 new stocks that will be better than Amazon!"

And I only have to pay $100 for the report! Smh....

Lolz Motley Fools... I get them articles all the time too. When Motley Fools posts the news, that stock is most likely going to get a massive correction the next day. Investing usually requires you to be ahead of the market. Not that I am ahead.

I just jumped into the Lithium stocks a bit late, last Friday and Today, those stocks are breaking the rules of correction though, most of them keep going up and up and up, and I later found out, it's thanks to Reddit's ASXbets driving a massive gamestop style bull run, which is like WallStreetBets, and yeah also the massive demand for Lithium has some effect too.

I managed the catch one of the stocks "Ardiden" before the golden cross though, when a short term trading average crosses over the long term, short term trading average has just hit the long term line today.

Another I paid too much for, but am going to hold, Orocobre is probably the biggest Lithium miner in Australia and another major company is merging with them, when the merge is done, I am expecting it to rise more.

Also paid a bit much for another Lithium stock, but it's still well below others in price, Sayona mining at 11c vs some other Lithium stocks which are 36c all the way up to $13.50+ (Vulcan Energy which is $13.54 now on the ASX, was only 56c this time last year and around $9 a few weeks ago, crazy) they did strike up a deal with Renault though, for their electric vehicles.

So I am expecting there's a lot more rise to be gained from the cheaper Lithium stocks, since traders are going crazy at the moment and also the demand is high.

I watched another Lithium stock "Lithium Energy" rise from 35c to 75c in one month, and it still has been going up. And the thing is, they are very new, they have only been listed on the ASX about just under 6 months ago, not sure how long the rocket can last though.

I think my portfolio is finally settled now though, going to change to the long term game.

Josho · Aug 9, 2021

FHII said:
Just looked into Carls Jr. They are owned by Hardees and hardees is a CKE stock which seems like its dead. I think they were bought out a decade ago.

Not much into the Lithium market, but yes... That is interesting about the differing trends between the Aussie and US market.

I forgot another thing I tend to watch: the Futures and extended prices. It doesn't keep me from investing in something I am interested in, but it does alter my timing. For example, the Dow Jones closed Friday +144. Monday, however its going to open -73. Dollar General closed Friday up 35 cents and will open Monday another 35 cents higher.

I think this has to do with after hours trading. Like I said,it doesn't affect who I invest in, but may cause me to hold or pull the trigger on a trade. Right now, I have a little spending power as I sold most of my ASO stock (not all). Tomorrow morning I will look at the numbers again. Frankly I have a hunch Monday and Tuesday may be rough. I will just keep an eye on it. I suppose day traders use this heavily!

Ah futures, I have been keeping an eye on what overseas markets have been doing when the Aussie stock market is closed, as that usually has some effect on what happens the next day.

I did read somewhere that Mondays are the best days to buy and Fridays the best day to sell.

Josho · Aug 9, 2021

@FHII I did also see some Abalone stocks I was interested in, but not going to buy at the moment though, because if China does a trading ban on Aussie Abalone, ouch!

FHII · Aug 20, 2021

Josho said:
Ah futures, I have been keeping an eye on what overseas markets have been doing when the Aussie stock market is closed, as that usually has some effect on what happens the next day.

I did read somewhere that Mondays are the best days to buy and Fridays the best day to sell.

Having been in the market for 6 months, I hate to answer that and make myself look foolish! However, in that short time span that looks to be the truth in a general sense. Why buy on Friday when numbers are green when you know Sunday night and Monday morning before trading they will be red? And vice versa? I really wish I was a 10 year vet of following the market because I want to know if its always been so volatile, or is this the norm?

My goodness: it couldn't be that easy! Buy Tuesday, Sell Friday, repeat!

Josho · Aug 21, 2021

FHII said:
Having been in the market for 6 months, I hate to answer that and make myself look foolish! However, in that short time span that looks to be the truth in a general sense. Why buy on Friday when numbers are green when you know Sunday night and Monday morning before trading they will be red? And vice versa? I really wish I was a 10 year vet of following the market because I want to know if its always been so volatile, or is this the norm?

My goodness: it couldn't be that easy! Buy Tuesday, Sell Friday, repeat!

Lolz I have been in about it for the same time as you, 6 months, I still make plenty of rookie mistakes, and can say volatile is the norm right now on the Aussie stock market...

Yes I admit I bought into the Lithium hype, now I am losing on every single Lithium stock, and got rid of some, a 8 month bull run really turned south last week, and has really hurt the late buyers like me. Should have stuck to the rule not to buy into the hype no matter how long the bull run is, oh well, hopefully it's just a pullback and rebounds soon.....

I have learnt trading on the stocks does not seem like the right thing for me at the moment, so I am definitely switching to mid-term to long term investing...

And yes I broke that rule by buying on Friday the 13th and could have got it for quite a bit cheaper.....

Now I am hoping I can average down, and watch it rise during this coming week fingers crossed!

I am quitting short term trading though for at least a while and may switch to dollar cost average investing over 1-3 maybe even 5 years, I can definitely see why about 80% fail and lose money short term trading lolz.. And now I know why people take courses for it......... It's a real skill, even a professional job for some and takes plenty of time and experience and lots of research, and even after learning, it's still just about impossible to predict the patterns 100% of the time, but increases the chances of being a successful trader, it certainly is not the same as buying and selling physical items, as that's more predictable, usually with little research you know what will profit and what not, stock markets are a lot more unpredictable and volatile.

However though Lithium should go back up in the long term, the demand is there, it's just a bit of a silly season at the moment, with many stuck in lockdown in Australia, I just gotta be more careful and invest on the facts.

For switching my portfolio to mid to long term investing, I am keeping what I think will do well based of production results or good drill tests or good financial results (though good financial results are not always possible for small cap stocks, as a lot of new small cap companies are trying to prove themselves and raise money on the stock market.) I am also planning to add in a hedge into my portfolio, something that should be a safe investment and should increase in value every year or most years.

Josho · Aug 21, 2021

Josho said:
Lolz I have been in about it for the same time as you, 6 months, I still make plenty of rookie mistakes, and can say volatile is the norm right now on the Aussie stock market...

Yes I admit I bought into the Lithium hype, now I am losing on every single Lithium stock, and got rid of some, a 8 month bull run really turned south last week, and has really hurt the late buyers like me. Should have stuck to the rule not to buy into the hype no matter how long the bull run is, oh well, hopefully it's just a pullback and rebounds soon.....

I have learnt trading on the stocks does not seem like the right thing for me at the moment, so I am definitely switching to mid-term to long term investing...

And yes I broke that rule by buying on Friday the 13th and could have got it for quite a bit cheaper..... Now I am hoping I can average down, and watch it rise during this coming week fingers crossed!

I am quitting short term trading though for at least a while and may switch to dollar cost average investing over 1-3 maybe even 5 years, I can definitely see why about 80% fail and lose money short term trading lolz.. And now I know why people take courses for it......... It's a real skill, even a professional job for some and takes plenty of time and experience and lots of research, and even after learning, it's still just about impossible to predict the patterns 100% of the time, but increases the chances of being a successful trader, it certainly is not the same as buying and selling physical items, as that's more predictable, usually with little research you know what will profit and what not, stock markets are a lot more unpredictable and volatile.

However though Lithium should go back up in the long term, the demand is there, it's just a bit of a silly season at the moment, with many stuck in lockdown in Australia, I just gotta be more careful and invest on the facts.

For switching my portfolio to mid to long term investing, I am keeping what I think will do well based of production results or good drill tests or good financial results (though good financial results are not always possible for small cap stocks, as a lot of new small cap companies are trying to prove themselves and raise money on the stock market.) I am also planning to add in a hedge into my portfolio, something that should be a safe investment and should increase in value every year or most years.

Now may not even be a good time to invest in stocks to be honest, I am getting the feeling another stock market crash may happen for Australia... And maybe other countries, I may even temporarily pull out and buy the bottom, I will see what happens Monday.

There's many factors at play at the moment though. The Delta variant is increasing, lockdowns have been extended for a chunk of the Aussie population, tougher restrictions are coming in, the Taliban overseas causing trouble and then there's China "Chinese Communist Party mouthpiece is now threatening an economic “domino effect” resulting from its efforts to slash Australia’s iron ore exports and steel supplies."

China chokes Australia’s cash cow

mailmandan · Aug 25, 2021

Nasdaq tops 15,000 for first time, S&P 500 sets new record

Nasdaq tops 15,000 for first time, S&P 500 sets new record

How long is this going to last under Biden? I keep hearing some people at work saying "hurry up and crash so I can get back in it." People who have jumped out of the stock market for a little while don't want to get back in when it's this high. Nowhere to go but back down they say. For someone getting close to retirement is 30% in the S&P 500 a safe place to remain?

FHII · Aug 25, 2021

Josho said:
Now may not even be a good time to invest in stocks to be honest, I am getting the feeling another stock market crash may happen for Australia... And maybe other countries, I may even temporarily pull out and buy the bottom, I will see what happens Monday.

There's many factors at play at the moment though. The Delta variant is increasing, lockdowns have been extended for a chunk of the Aussie population, tougher restrictions are coming in, the Taliban overseas causing trouble and then there's China "Chinese Communist Party mouthpiece is now threatening an economic “domino effect” resulting from its efforts to slash Australia’s iron ore exports and steel supplies."

China chokes Australia’s cash cow

Well last monday would've been a terrific time to invest in the US markets... And right after we talked about how terrible Mondays are to trade!

There is alot of things going on right now and I am amazed the markets are at all time highs with it all. I can do nothing but watch and learn. I got a few bucks ready to invest but I am waiting for things to settle. Since Monday my returns have gone from 1.9% to 4.9%. Happy about that, but it'll drop down soon and hopefully rebound again like it did last week.

NVDA went from 207 to 190 then closed at 222 today. My newest venture is Dicks sporting goods (great history of slowly and steadily rising) went from 105 friday morning to closing at 129 today. Most of my other stocks did well, but not as well as these two. Even the ones that were losers were just marginal.

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