$$$$ CRASH ??

Ok, so you've no doubt heard the hollering about the dollar crashing in the fall of 2015. Even Mr. Putin seems to have bought that line. That was before his own currency, the ruble, took a 50% dive. I've sifted through a handful of the gruesome financial predictions for our future and put them into four categories.

1. Religious prophecies (you know the type, generally justified by eschatological references)
2. Pseudo-religious predictions (also called the lunatic fringe)
3. Legitimate respected financial advisors with nothing to sell
4. The Federal Reserve and its media puppets

With few exceptions numbers 1 - 3 all agree that a crash of some sort is imminent. That's a little creepy if you ask me.

Only the Federal Reserve (which claims, BTW that gold and silver isn't money), and its puppet voice in the US media offer differing opinions. They tell us everything is coming up roses. This is downright scary, since all their statements rely upon trends and developments that are unreal, or nearly ready for deployment into the economy. That stuff reads like Hitler's promises of Victory weapons that would defeat Germany's enemies. Too little and too late for Adolph. Is the Federal Reserve confidence based on the same sort of mumbo-jumbo?

Hey, when the lunatic fringe sounds more reasonable than the chief private financial organization in the world, the Federal Reserve, its time to wonder if a major shift in our future is about to happen.

What say you, readers? If you've got some tasty documentation how about sharing?

Do I detect doubt about predictions of financial disaster?

Most all of those predictions are based upon the hyper inflation of the dollar at home and abroad. While nations such as India and China are building their economy based upon manufacturing, America leads the west by basing its economy on debt. Meanwhile an alarming trend has appeared.

Japan followed the United States into its version of quantitative easing - they began to print more money than they actually had. Not long after that, members of the EU began to do the same thing, mostly because they were so deeply in debt there was no way to get out of it except to print inflated money. Several weeks ago, Sweden joined the parade with its own policy.

Meanwhile, the true manufacturing nations like the BRIC group are gathering gold as fast as they can. The average Indian family, for example, holds $50,000 in gold (not the cheap gold painted jewelry you'll find at Walmart or Penney's either - they have the 24kt stuff).

It is an historic fact that no nation or group of nations can sustain their economy with debt and inflated currency. It has never happened.

Every single financial indicator points to severe trouble because western governments and banks refuse to halt the inflationary policy.

The exception, of course, is the Federal Reserve and its media puppets who tell everyone that we're living in a bull market. Bull, indeed.

The cra$h is coming. It is as inevitable as the rising sun. When it happens the entire western system will fall with it. An old proverb says, 'the bigger they are the harder they fall' and today's western economy is huge.

The odd thing, though, is that despite predictions by some there doesn't seem to be any alternate currency waiting in the stage wings. Some believe the Yuan will assume the role of global reserve currency, but the Chinese themselves seem to be reticent about it.

The only thing that appears to be a viable currency is gold and silver.

The problem is predicting when it will happen. There are some legitimate indicators, such as the stock market volatility index the actual trade value of international currency, and the price of gold and silver bullion trades. All one can do is watch.

and that's me, hollering from the choir loft...

the stranger said:

A kinda off the wall question but with there being such a interlocking global market now, if the States took a big crash would it not, an effect, be a world wide crash? If so, i guess it gives reason for other countries and us to all flatter ourselves into inflation or anything else that may work for now. Very true a major depression has been predicted for many years now but so far all dates have been wrong. Is earlier stated, sure, it is going to happen sometime. Just like death and taxes. I dont know. Economics is too many equations and variants for me to understand.

Click to expand...

The interconnected global economy is what bothers me. A few months ago Sweden announced it would begin the same sort of 'qualitative easing' program instituted by the US in the beginning of the twenty first century. Japan and Europe quickly followed. As of this writing all western economies are pursuing inflationary policies to one degree or another. Historically this sort of thing cannot go on very long before the financial bubble pops.

Earlier it was stated that because commodity prices (i.e.: oil, gold/silver & grain) are stable or declining a financial crisis is not possible. Should the reader be reminded that no bull or bear market ever continues indefinitely? My initial post suggested that much. The question is of pursuit of indicators. Prior to the crash of '29 the stock market began extremely wild vacillations. It was held in check by private exceptions for a while, but those efforts did not succeed more than a few weeks.

Another questions might be to ask what indicators ought to be watched.......

and that's me, hollering from the choir loft...

River Jordan said:

Keep in mind, the control of currency is not limited to only putting currency into circulation. The managers also have ways to remove it should inflation become a problem. That's the benefit of having a fiat currency...you have total control over it.

Click to expand...

This is only partly true. While the elite bankers do indeed have the ability to pump fiat paper into the system as well as remove it, the process of inflating money has become addictive. As I write, every western nation has adopted the policy. There are a few odd things that I've noticed, however.

While the US debt to GNP ratio is a favorite point of argument for those who predict an economic collapse, it is not generally acknowledged that Japan leads the world in debt. US debt amounts to approximately 100% of GNP (a little more, actually but who's counting at this point). Japanese debt is over 240%. In addition, Japan not China is now the leading holder of US Treasury bonds. A hiccup in the Japanese economy could spell disaster for every nation that trades with them. Lo and behold, as I write POTUS Obama is hosting the Japanese Prime Minister in Washington. His purpose is to goad the Sons of Nippon into increasing their military spending. Such a load might be the factor that brings down the Japanese financial house of cards.

A good indicator of the low level of international trade is the BDI, Baltic Dry Index. Check it out. The BDI has consistently predicted financial bubble bursts in the past including 2008. Dry goods and raw materials are transported world wide by ocean shipping. The level of shipping activity is published each day in the revised BDI index. Since January of 2015 it has been low and flatlined. Ships are being scrapped at an enormous rate. Most of this toxic work is being handled by India and that industry is booming for them. Ships can't simply be parked until the next load is ready. Shipping companies like Maersk cannot afford to do so. Consequently they scrap the extra carriers. Unfortunately it takes about two years to build new ones, should the economy reverse itself. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that the global economy has bottomed out drastically and WILL NOT recover for at least three to four years at minimum possibly more.

Since the death of Saudi King Abdullah, the price of oil has increased slowly. From the middle of April 2015 to the end of the month it has risen nearly sixty cents per gallon on the international market. The price of gold bullion has traded higher among national banks as well. Oddly, private investment prices remain low. It's as though private individuals can't see the trends (or refuse to do so).

Something wicked is coming, financially speaking.

God help us.

and that's me, hollering from the choir loft...

2 big financial events the fall of 2015........

1.) SDR/XDR currency basket
Used for international trading the currency basket has four member currencies; the USD, the UK pound, the Japanese Yen and the Euro. Equivalent values are assigned according to relative GNP of the member nations. Member status is reviewed every five years in October. The last review was in 2010. This time around the Chinese Yuan/Renminbi is expected to be added to the basket. If it is admitted, the Yuan will have accomplished a major step toward replacing the USD as global reserve currency. The down side for America may be shortages and expensive goods if and when available.

2.) Federal Reserve review of the prime interest rate
Much debate and no little jitters have been expressed by every financial pundit and leader available. Despite warnings against it, the Fed will most likely raise the interest rate. Nobody really knows what will happen if they do. The debate rages on both sides of speculation. Nothing good is expected.

x) The X-Factor indicator of economic trends is the BDI-Y or Baltic Dry Index. This number is calculated daily by shipping companies throughout the globe, not just the ones that serve the Baltic area. As you are aware, nearly all goods and commodities are shipped via sea transport. The number of ships and what ship owners charge for transport varies. Shipping companies such as the Maersk Group tend to keep their carriers (dry bulk only - no oilers considered in this index) slightly below demand so as to be able to charge a profitable amount for transport. When the global economy burns hot, more ships will be built to accommodate the demand for transport. When the global economy cools, ships are retired. A shipping company cannot afford to 'park' too many ships, so they are sold for scrap. The index, therefore, is considered to be an accurate reflection of future economic trends. AS OF JANUARY 2015 THE INDEX HAS LITERALLY GONE FLAT! It has been the lowest in recorded history. This trend can also be verified by a google search of the boom in ship scrapping. India in particular has a booming ship scrapping business. The reader should also be aware that it takes two to three years to build a ship, so the absolute earliest turn-around for the global economy is 2.5 to 3.5 years on average (assuming a miracle happened and everything went up tomorrow morning).

Almost every indicator available suggests that a massive financial change in the wind is expected, yet many people go about their business adamantly refusing to believe any of the advice until its too late. The sad part is that fools rule and the wise will be expected to clean up their mess when things go sour.

and that's me, hollering from the choir loft...

HammerStone said:

A few observations:

1) How come "globalist" bankers only seem to live in the US? The term global would imply otherwise. There is a good bit of money in China, Russia, Dubai and elsewhere; the aristocracy is alive and well. Many of them having competing interests. Yes, they do pull bigger strings than me or you, but I fail to understand how the government can be so masterful in shadow dealings that it hides, yet it has trouble running pretty much anything else with a reasonable level of competency?

2) Isn't betting on currency collapse kinda like betting on death and taxes? It will happen, eventually.

3) In all fairness, I heard the monetary collapse conspiracy theories back into the Bush Sr. years. It's kinda like the Millerites of Economics. "We'll try again next year."

4) We are still in the stage that pom said, if the US goes boom economically, everyone else goes boom too.

Click to expand...

Your points are good as far as they go. Unfortunately the error is in looking at and considering American points of view only. The American version of globalism isn't the same as that of the rest of the world and Pax Americana died when we invaded Iraq in 2003.

"On 16 September 1985, when the Commerce Department announced that the United States had become a debtor nation, the American Empire died."
-Gore Vidal

While Mr. Vidal pointed out the first real indicator that American financial leaders had taken a wrong turn, the demise of American influence began at least two decades before that declaration.

Some believe mistakenly that everything will continue as it always has - ignoring all indicators of current events and financial realities. Human nature is like that - almost always ignoring warnings until the disaster arrives - and then its too late. The economy of the Roman Empire required hundreds of years to reach collapse, while the white hot action in finance and trade today tells us it could happen at any time. In the summer of 1929 warnings of an imminent financial disaster were in the wind, but despite efforts to change or delay it the stock market crashed and the American economy very nearly went bust as well. People ignored the warnings and many suffered for it.

Consider the Baltic Dry Index (BDIY), an indicator recognized widely as an accurate barometer of future financial activity. It has been flat lined since January 2015. It reflects the amount of dry bulk trans-oceanic shipping carriers available at any given time and has been dropping like a stone for several years. Ship owners are scrapping their fleets because fewer and fewer dry bulk goods are being transported. India, for example, has a booming industry in the ship scrapping business. Google it !!!

How do goods get from one country to another? By sea. If sea transport is falling off it means that the world economy, not just the American version, is cooling off. Since it takes two to three years to build a new ship, the situation cannot turn around for at least three more years at minimum. The outlook for the world is not good ESPECIALLY when one considers that goods and commodities are being paid for with currency that is worth less and less each day.

Consider also that in the fall of 2015 two or perhaps three major financial changes will take place. In October the IMF will decide whether it will admit China to the SDR/XDR currency basket. Until now only the USD, UK pound, Euro and Yen have been part of the basket the value of which determines the cost of goods traded globally. China has been petitioning heavily for admission with the goal of replacing the dollar with the Renminbi/Yuan as global reserve currency. If admitted, and most pundits believe this will happen, the Renminbi may become THE reserve currency instead of the dollar. What happens then is anybody's guess, but it certainly won't benefit America.

The second big event will be the Federal Reserve decision to raise the Prime Interest rate from its current dead level. If that happens many predict an immediate inflationary trend of possibly grandiose proportions. Its rather like setting a match to a dry tree.

"Never suspect a conspiracy when stupidity is an adequate explanation."
- Fred Reed

Dear Hammerstone: It isn't conspiracies we are looking at here in terms of financial activity. It's stupidity and irresponsibility and greed.

and that's me, hollering from the choir loft...