newlife said:
A meeting of Eurozone finance ministers failed to resolve the current Greek crisis. We love to use euphemisms like recession to describe the economic catastrophe facing countries like Greece and Spain. These countires are experiencing true depression, ie, untold years of stagnation and official unemployment above 20 percent. We like to lecture them from the distance of our comfortable lives about the need to tighten belts and stoically make hard choices because this is the price that must be paid for sins of past profligacy. Policies of austerity produce declining GDP, unemployment, shattered lives, extended malaise and suffering. Countries with troubled economies should think twice about joining the Eurozone as a similar form of discipline may await them in the future.
I don't believe that "
policies of austerity produce declining GDP, unemployment, shattered lives, extended malaise and suffering." Austerity is the
result of declining GDP, not the cause of it. Debt and irresponsible financial policy is the cause of it.
Beginning in the 1980's the US and its international banking partners began a spending spree that continues to this day. Americans buried themselves in debt at that time and in September of 1985 the US Commerce department announced that for the first time in history America had become a debtor nation. Nobody knew exactly what that meant at the time. Most still do not understand the full ramifications of international debt. We only know its bad because we see what it's done to the Greeks.
Governments, like citizens, got into the debt craze too. Today we hear constant warnings about it and see it on TV in nations of lesser advantage.
The EU was supposed to function like the US. In America, states suffering in various degrees of financial difficulty rely upon the Federal government for assistance with richer states providing the money to 'bail them out'. The financial and political system in Europe was meant to operate in the same way, but because the EU is less formal than that of the US - problems result. The EU problem is internal. The global problem is different.
Since the 1950's, much has been said and written about American national debt. In the 1950's, predictions about the negative balance of trade suggested hard times were coming. By the early 1970's, the dollar had become so weak in the international balance of trade that President Nixon was forced to remove gold as a basis of value for it. His next move was to devalue the dollar and overnight it was worth fifty cents on the international market. Since the dollar was the global reserve currency, other nations could do nothing about it. National debt of those who traded with America or in dollars grew exponentially. By the end of the decade, debt was the new currency and the entire world used it with great abandon.
Today the American debt is approximately 100% of our GDP. Folks who monitor this number think its bad, but few watch the debt levels of other nations. Greek debt hovers around 170%. It could be slightly more or less as of this writing. Fluctuation now is so rapid as to be difficult to keep up with the numbers. That of Japan approaches 240% or thereabouts. (It was 270 the last time I checked, but it changes so much I prefer a more conservative figure..... 240 is conservative?)
Two weeks ago the Chinese stock market crashed and lost approximately 3 trillion dollars in value. Fortunately the Chinese stock market is not -yet- traded internationally. Standard procedures required by the US SEC do not apply to the Chinese system. Margin calls at the Shanghai exchange were epidemic. Margin calls were the main reason for the severity of the US 1929 crash as well as the Chinese July 2015 crash. Markets will crash from time to time, but margin calls are like adding nuclear fire to the panic.
The Chinese market system may change this fall. Two big changes are potentially on the financial table. In the fall of 2015 the Federal Reserve may raise the prime interest rate. Many pundits predict a severely negative impact on the American financial system because of it. FDR tried something similar in 1933 to raise the country out of the depression, but it had such a severe impact that recovery was delayed another seven to eight years. Some believe raising the prime interest rate this fall will have a financially depressing effect. In October the IMF will meet to consider admitting the Chinese Renminbi/Yuan to the SDR/XDR currency basket. Currently only the USD, UK pound, Japanese Yen and the Euro participate, but the Chinese want to ease the Renminbi into a status of global reserve currency REPLACING the dollar. Experts believe the admission will be approved.
When America loses control of the global reserve currency we can expect severe economic consequences. The predicted massive inflation of the dollar will arrive, but we will also experience severe SHORTAGES in goods. No amount of inflated money will solve the problem. America produces nothing today except debt and McDonald's cheese burgers (and recent financial reports say that the burger chain is in trouble too). We import almost everything we use on a daily basis. Consider that the BDIY (Baltic Dry Index) average (1) has been flat lined since January 2015 and you can see the world, not just America, is in trouble.
The financial winds are blowing evil times and austerity will only be part of the disaster.
and that's me, hollering from the choir loft.....
(1) The BDIY average is an indicator of international dry bulk shipping - not oilers. It is a reflection of the number of ships available to transport goods across the ocean. For several years the demand for dry bulk shipping has fallen to the extent that ship scrapping has become a booming industry. Maersk, NYK and Hapag-Lloyd are among many carriers that are selling off their inventory of containers as well as ships. India is the leading nation in this business, but not the only one involved in it. You can't just 'park' a ship until its needed. Such a practice is uneconomical and even governments do not 'park' their old warships any more. Unneeded ships are scrapped - a process that is extremely toxic. Google it or watch any of the number of documentaries on it. People who do this work die young.
It takes two to three years to build a new ship. Therefore, even if the global economy were to turn around immediately it would take two to three years for the flow of goods across the ocean to satisfy demand. Therefore, the BDIY index is considered to be a very good indicator of future global economic trends. If this is to be believed the BDIY index forecasts a gloomy future indeed.