Covid . . Are Americans totally stoopid??

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Yehren

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Actually, it's a good idea to check sources and double-check the stuff you would like to be true. If you learned to do that, it would work a lot better for you.

So you think you can provoke me?

It's very good advice, and meant to help you. My only ulterior motive (other than to help you do better at finding facts) is that the more people who research facts before posting, the more that reason will be found herein. (Yehren reflects) Well, I suppose in the back of my mind, I suppose if you're better informed, you'll tend to agree with me, but realistically, that's not how people actually form opinions.
 

Yehren

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There was a long hiatus, then they resumed. Globally again.

Sounds like a testable claim. What years were the "hiatus?" All we need to do then, is check for contrails during that time. What do you have?
 

Heart2Soul

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Actually, it's a good idea to check sources and double-check the stuff you would like to be true. If you learned to do that, it would work a lot better for you.



It's very good advice, and meant to help you. My only ulterior motive (other than to help you do better at finding facts) is that the more people who research facts before posting, the more that reason will be found herein. (Yehren reflects) Well, I suppose in the back of my mind, I suppose if you're better informed, you'll tend to agree with me, but realistically, that's not how people actually form opinions.
So the topic is researching articles before posting....you just opened a can of worms...I am going to start with yours...haha.
 

farouk

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Every time I hear or read a comment that says "MOST AMERICANS" I am concerned for the person making or reporting such bogus information.....reminds me of that commercial when he asked the girl where she got her info....she said on the internet, if it's on the internet it must be true!
And it really is telling as to where people get their information from when stating things as factual when it is opinionated journalism or biased reporting.
@Heart2Soul Reminds me of the Elvis Presley fan club which said something like "64 million Americans can't be wrong..."
 
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Yehren

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So the topic is researching articles before posting....you just opened a can of worms...I am going to start with yours...haha.

Great idea. Meantime, tell us about that "hiatus" in contrails you think happened. In what years did that happen?

You see, the conditions necessary for contrails are always seen somewhere on Earth, and so they are always forming:

A contrail will form behind a jet if, as exhaust gases cool and mix with surrounding air, the humidity is high enough and the temperature low enough for liquid water to condense. The air needs to be supersaturated and the temperature generally below -40°F, something that typically occurs only in the upper troposphere, the atmospheric layer several miles up where airliners cruise. Under those conditions, water vapor from the jet's exhaust and secondarily from the atmosphere condenses into water droplets. Within a few tens of feet behind the aircraft, these droplets freeze into the snow-white particles that bring the contrail to life.


How long a newly formed condensation trail sticks around depends on the ambient humidity. If humidity is low, contrails will rapidly dissipate, looking like a comet's tail. The ice particles sublimate—meaning go straight from ice to vapor—and you're back to blue sky. If humidity is high, however, contrails can persist—and those are the ones that trouble climatologists.
The Contrail Effect

And it's been going on for a long, long time...


B-17 contrails, WWII:
iu


Notice that they have to be high enough for the effect to work. The lower bombers don't form the contrails, although they are giving off the same water vapor from fuel combustion.

 

Heart2Soul

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Well, let's take a look...

View attachment 10174
No, they are strongly up. But if it tracks the way things have so far, they should start declining in a week or so. How do I know that? The number of new infections is starting to trend down, and historically, the deaths have lagged a few weeks from new infections. How does Trump's performance here compare to other nations? Spain had a harder time than most. Here's what they show:

View attachment 10175
We really, really messed up, because there was no one at the top capable of dealing with this disaster.
Using the information from the CDC...(Center for Disease Control) who updates their reports weekly....this is the most accurate and reliable source to go to for updates about the virus...
Updated July 31, 2020
Download Weekly Summary pdf icon[15 Pages, 1 MB]

Key Updates for Week 30, ending July 25, 2020
Nationally, levels of influenza-like illness (ILI) are below baseline but higher than typically seen at this time of year. Indicators that track ILI and COVID-19-like illness (CLI) showed decreases nationally from week 29 to week 30, with decreasing or stable levels in nearly all regions of the country. Nationally, the percentage of laboratory tests positive for SARS-CoV-2 remained stable from week 29 to week 30 but increased in six of ten HHS regions. Weekly hospitalization rates and mortality attributed to COVID-19 declined during week 30 but may change as more data for admissions and deaths occurring during the most recent weeks are received. Mortality attributed to COVID-19 remains above the epidemic threshold.

Virus
Public Health, Commercial and Clinical Laboratories
Nationally, the overall percentage of respiratory specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 was 8.7% for both weeks 29 and 30; however, increases were seen in six regions. National percentages of specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 by type of laboratory are listed as follows:

  • Public health laboratories – increased from 7.5% during week 29 to 8.3% during week 30;
  • Clinical laboratories – increased from 6.4% during week 29 to 7.3% during week 30;
  • Commercial laboratories – decreased from 9.2% during week 29 to 8.9% during week 30.
Outpatient and Emergency Department Visits
Outpatient Influenza-Like Illness Network (ILINet) and National Syndromic Surveillance Program (NSSP)
Two surveillance networks are being used to track outpatient or emergency department (ED) visits for illness with symptoms compatible with COVID-19.

  • Nationally, ILI activity remains below baseline for the fifteenth week but is higher than typically seen at this time of year.
  • During week 30, the percentage of visits for ILI, but not CLI, increased in Region 2 (NY/NJ/Puerto Rico) compared to week 29; the percentages of visits for ILI and CLI decreased or were stable in all other regions.
  • Recent changes in health care seeking behavior, including increasing use of telemedicine, recommendations to limit emergency department (ED) visits to severe illnesses, and increased social distancing, are likely affecting data reported from both networks, making it difficult to draw conclusions at this time. Tracking these systems moving forward will give additional insight into illness related to COVID-19.
Severe Disease
Hospitalizations
Cumulative COVID-19-associated hospitalization rates since March 1, 2020, are updated weekly. The overall cumulative COVID-19 hospitalization rate is 130.1 per 100,000, with the highest rates in people aged 65 years and older (360.2 per 100,000) and 50-64 years (196.3 per 100,000).

Mortality
Based on death certificate data, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC) increased from week 26 – week 28 (June 27 – July 11) for the first time since mid-April. The percentage for week 30 is 8.6% and currently lower than the percentage during week 29 (12.0%); however, the percentage remains above the epidemic threshold. Percentages for recent weeks will likely increase as more death certificates are processed.

All data are preliminary and may change as more reports are received.

A description of the surveillance systems summarized in COVIDView, including methodology and detailed descriptions of each data component, is available on the surveillance methods page.

continued on next page
 

Heart2Soul

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Key Points

  • The percentage of specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 increased in six of ten HHS regions, but the percentages of visits for ILI and CLI decreased or remained stable in nine of ten regions. The percentage of visits for ILI increased in Region 2 (NY/NJ/Puerto Rico) compared to last week.
  • Using combined data from the three laboratory types, the national percentage of respiratory specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 with a molecular assay remained stable from week 29 to week 30 at 8.7%.
    • The highest percentages of specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 were seen in Regions 4 (South East, 13.6%), 6 (South Central, 16.5%) and 9 (South West/Coast, 8.9%); however, the percentages are decreasing in Regions 4 (South East) and 9 (South West/Coast) following peaks seen in weeks 28 and 27, respectively.
    • Increases in the percentage of specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 were reported in six of ten HHS surveillance regions: Regions 2 (NY/NJ/Puerto Rico), 5 (Midwest), 6 (South Central), 7 (Central), 8 (Mountain) and 10 (Pacific Northwest).
  • The percentage of outpatient and ED visits for ILI are below baseline nationally and in all regions of the country; however, ILI activity is above what is typical for this time of year. The percentage of visits to EDs for CLI decreased nationally for the second consecutive week, and compared to the previous week, decreased or remained stable in all ten HHS regions.
    • Systems monitoring ILI and CLI may be influenced by recent changes in health care seeking behavior, including increasing use of telemedicine, recommendations to limit emergency department (ED) visits to severe illnesses, and increased social distancing.
  • The overall cumulative COVID-19-associated hospitalization rate was 130.1 per 100,000; rates were highest in people 65 years of age and older (360.2 per 100,000) followed by people 50-64 years (196.3 per 100,000). Cumulative hospitalization rates will increase as the pandemic continues.
    • From week 25 – week 28 (weeks ending June 20 – July 11), overall weekly hospitalization rates increased for three consecutive weeks.
    • Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native persons had an age-adjusted hospitalization rate approximately 5.3 times that of non-Hispanic White persons. Rates among non-Hispanic Black persons and Hispanic or Latino persons were both approximately 4.7 times the rate among non-Hispanic White persons.
  • Based on death certificate data, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC) increased from week 26 – week 28 (weeks ending June 27 – July 11) after declining for 11 weeks since mid-April. The percentage of deaths due to PIC for week 30 is 8.6%, lower than the percentage during week 29 (12.0%), but above the epidemic threshold. These percentages will likely increase as more death certificates are processed.
  • All surveillance systems aim to provide the most complete data available. Estimates from previous weeks are subject to change as data are updated with the most complete data available.



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View Data Table

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View Data Table



* Commercial laboratories began testing for SARS-CoV-2 in early March, but the number and geographic distribution of reporting commercial laboratories became stable enough to calculate a weekly percentage of specimens testing positive as of March 29, 2020.
View Data Table
Additional virologic surveillance information: Surveillance Methods

continued next page
 
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Heart2Soul

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* Age-group specific percentages should not be compared to the national baseline.

On a regional levelexternal icon, the percentage of outpatient visits for ILI ranged from 0.5% to 1.8% during week 30. All ten regions are below their region-specific baselines, and in nine of ten regions, the percentage of visits for ILI was lower or stable in week 30 compared to week 29. In Region 2 (NY/NJ/Puerto Rico), the percentage of visits for ILI was slightly higher in week 30 compared to week 29.

Note: In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, new data sources will be incorporated into ILINet as we move into summer weeks when lower levels of influenza and other respiratory virus circulation are typical. Starting in week 21, increases in the number of patient visits will be seen as new sites are enrolled and the percentage of visits for ILI may change in comparison to previous weeks. While all regions remain below baseline levels for ILI, these system changes should be considered when drawing conclusions from these data. Any changes in ILI due to changes in respiratory virus circulation will be highlighted here.

Overall Percentage of Visits for ILI | Age Group ILI Data
ILI Activity Levels
Data collected in ILINet are used to produce a measure of ILI activity for all 50 states, Puerto Rico, the District of Columbia and New York City. The mean reported percentage of visits due to ILI for the current week is compared to the mean reported during non-influenza weeks, and the activity levels correspond to the number of standard deviations below, at or above the mean.

The number of jurisdictions at each activity level during week 30, and changes compared to the previous week are summarized in the table below and shown in the following maps.

ILI Activity Levels
Activity Level Number of Jurisdictions
Week 30
(Week ending
July 25, 2020) Compared to Previous Week
Very High 0 No change
High 0 No change
Moderate 1 -1
Low 1 -2
Minimal 49 +1
Insufficient Data 3 +2

*Data collected in ILINet may disproportionally represent certain populations within a state and may not accurately depict the full picture of influenza activity for the whole state. Differences in the data presented here by CDC and independently by some state health departments likely represent differing levels of data completeness with data presented by the state likely being the more complete.




National Syndromic Surveillance Program (NSSP): Emergency Department (ED) Visits
NSSP is a collaboration among CDC, federal partners, local and state health departments and academic and private sector partners to collect, analyze and share electronic patient encounter data received from multiple health care settings. To track trends of potential COVID-19 visits, visits for COVID-19-like illness (CLI) (fever and cough or shortness of breath or difficulty breathing or presence of a coronavirus diagnosis code) and ILI to a subset of emergency departments in 47 states are being monitored.

Nationwide during week 30, 3.1% of emergency department visits captured in NSSP were due to CLI and 0.9% were due to ILI. Compared to week 29, this week there was a decrease in both percentages of visits for CLI and ILI. This was the second consecutive week the percentages of visits for CLI and ILI decreased since week 28.

During week 30, the percentages of visits for CLI and ILI decreased or remained steady in all ten HHS regions. Compared to week 29, eight of ten HHS regionsexternal icon (Regions 1 [New England], 4 [South East], 5 [Midwest], 6 [South Central], 7 [Central], 8 [Mountain], 9 [South West/Coast] and 10 [Pacific Northwest]) saw a decrease in the percentage of visits for CLI, and five of ten HHS regions (Regions 4 [South East], 6 [South Central], 7 [Central], 9 [South West/ Coast] and 10 [Pacific Northwest]) saw a decrease in the percentage of visits for ILI.


 

Heart2Soul

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Additional information about medically attended outpatient and emergency department visits for ILI and CLI: Surveillance Methods
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Hospitalization Rates
Age Group
Cumulative Rate per 100,000 Population
Overall 130.1
0-4 years 12.3
5-17 years 6.4
18-49 years 85.5
18-29 years 51.6
30-39 years
40-49 years 130.6
50-64 years 196.3
65+ years 360.2
65-74 years 266.4
75-84 years 427.4
85+ years 670.5



From June 20 (MMWR week 25) – July 11 (MMWR week 28), overall weekly hospitalization rates increased for three consecutive weeks. Data for the weeks ending July 18 and July 25 (MMWR weeks 29 and 30) currently show a decline; however, those data are likely to change as more data for admissions occurring during those weeks are received.

lab-confirmed-hospitalizations-weekly.gif

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Among the 42,403 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19-associated hospitalized cases, 39,983 (94.3%) had information on race and ethnicity, while collection of race and ethnicity was still pending for 2,420 (5.7%) cases. When examining overall age-adjusted rates by race/ethnicity, non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native persons had an age-adjusted hospitalization rate approximately 5.3 times that of non-Hispanic White persons. Rates among non-Hispanic Black persons and Hispanic or Latino persons were both approximately 4.7 times the rate among non-Hispanic White persons.



When examining age-stratified crude hospitalization rates by race and ethnicity, compared with non-Hispanic white persons in the same age group, crude hospitalization rates were 7.8 times higher among Hispanic or Latino persons aged 0-17 years; 9.8 times higher among non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native persons aged 18-49 years; 7.2 times higher among non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native persons aged 50-64 years; and 3.8 times higher among non-Hispanic Black persons aged ≥ 65 years.

Hospitalization rates per 100,000 population
by age and race and ethnicity — COVID-NET,
March 1, 2020–July 25, 2020
Age Category

Non-Hispanic
American Indian or Alaska Native

Non-Hispanic Black

Hispanic or Latino

Non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islander

Non-Hispanic White


Rate1 Rate Ratio2 Rate1 Rate Ratio2 Rate1 Rate Ratio2 Rate1 Rate Ratio2 Rate1 Rate Ratio2
0-17y 7.8 3.7 10.5 5.0 16.4 7.8 4.0 1.9 2.1 1.0
18-49y 221.4 9.8 133.7 5.9 208.5 9.2 38.9 1.7 22.6 1.0
50-64y 539.7 7.2 407.3 5.5 451.5 6.1 117.9 1.6 74.5 1.0
65+y 630.9 2.9 830.7 3.8 573.6 2.6 219.3 1.0 219.2 1.0
Overall rate3 (age-adjusted) 298.6 5.3 265.1 4.7 266.6 4.7 72.8 1.3 56.5 1.0

1 COVID-19-associated hospitalization rates by race/ethnicity are calculated using hospitalized COVID-NET cases with known race and ethnicity for the numerator and NCHS bridged-race population estimates for the denominator.
2 For each age category, rate ratios are the ratios between crude hospitalization rates within each racial/ethnic group and the crude hospitalization rate among non-Hispanic white persons in the same age category.
3 Overall rates are adjusted to account for differences in age distributions within race/ethnicity strata in the COVID-NET catchment area; the age strata used for the adjustment include 0-17, 18-49, 50-64, and 65+ years.

Non-Hispanic Black persons and non-Hispanic White persons represented the highest proportions of hospitalized cases reported to COVID-NET, followed by Hispanic or Latino, non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islander and non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native persons. However, some racial and ethnic groups are disproportionately represented among hospitalized cases as compared with the overall population of the catchment area. Prevalence ratios showed a similar pattern to that of the age-adjusted hospitalization rates: non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native persons have the highest prevalence ratio, followed by non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic or Latino persons.

Comparison of proportions of COVID-19-Associated Hospitalizations, by race and ethnicity — COVID-NET, March 1–July 25, 2020
Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native
Non-Hispanic Black Hispanic or Latino Non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islander Non-Hispanic White
Proportion of hospitalized COVID-NET cases1
1.5% 32.9% 23.2% 4.8% 31.5%
Proportion of population in COVID-NET catchment 0.7% 17.9% 14.1% 8.9% 58.5%
Prevalence ratios2 2.1 1.8 1.6 0.5 0.5

1 Persons of multiple races (0.2%) or unknown race and ethnicity (5.9%) are not represented in the table but are included as part of the denominator.
2 Prevalence ratio is calculated as the ratio of the proportion of hospitalized COVID-NET cases over the proportion of population in COVID-NET catchment area.

Among 10,687 hospitalized adults with information on underlying medical conditions, 90.8% had at least one reported underlying medical condition. The most commonly reported were hypertension, obesity, chronic metabolic disease and cardiovascular disease. Among 222 hospitalized children with information on underlying conditions, 52.3% had at least one reported underlying medical condition. The most commonly reported were obesity, neurologic conditions and asthma.

lab-confirmed-hospitalizations-underlying.gif

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Additional data on demographics, signs and symptoms at admission, underlying conditions, interventions, outcomes and discharge diagnoses, stratified by age, sex and race and ethnicity, are available.

Additional hospitalization surveillance information: Surveillance Methods | Additional rate data | Additional demographic and clinical data





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*Data during recent weeks are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes.

View Data Table
Additional NCHS mortality surveillance information: Surveillance Methods | Provisional Death Counts for COVID-19
 
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Yehren

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Your data conflates flu, COVID-19, and other infections. For some reason, CDC stopped listing COVID-19 by itself. And new death data is about a month out of date (apprently July 11). So not very useful in determining the number of daily deaths. Fortunately, such data is available from a number of other sources, such as hospitals, state agencies and the like. Some agencies are updating deaths on a daily basis:
upload_2020-8-6_11-28-0.png
 
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Heart2Soul

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Great idea. Meantime, tell us about that "hiatus" in contrails you think happened. In what years did that happen?

You see, the conditions necessary for contrails are always seen somewhere on Earth, and so they are always forming:

A contrail will form behind a jet if, as exhaust gases cool and mix with surrounding air, the humidity is high enough and the temperature low enough for liquid water to condense. The air needs to be supersaturated and the temperature generally below -40°F, something that typically occurs only in the upper troposphere, the atmospheric layer several miles up where airliners cruise. Under those conditions, water vapor from the jet's exhaust and secondarily from the atmosphere condenses into water droplets. Within a few tens of feet behind the aircraft, these droplets freeze into the snow-white particles that bring the contrail to life.


How long a newly formed condensation trail sticks around depends on the ambient humidity. If humidity is low, contrails will rapidly dissipate, looking like a comet's tail. The ice particles sublimate—meaning go straight from ice to vapor—and you're back to blue sky. If humidity is high, however, contrails can persist—and those are the ones that trouble climatologists.
The Contrail Effect

And it's been going on for a long, long time...


B-17 contrails, WWII:
iu


Notice that they have to be high enough for the effect to work. The lower bombers don't form the contrails, although they are giving off the same water vapor from fuel combustion.
You are off topic...start a thread.
 

Yehren

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I notice though, that the CDC hospitalization data tracks pretty close to the "new case" data:

upload_2020-8-6_11-30-24.png
It's why I'm projecting that new deaths will stop rising in a week or so; that's how they've been lagging new cases.
 

Heart2Soul

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Your data conflates flu, COVID-19, and other infections. And new death data is about a month out of date (apprently July 11). So not very useful in determining the number of daily deaths. Fortunately, such data is available from a number of other sources, such as hospitals, state agencies and the like. Some agencies are updating deaths on a daily basis:
View attachment 10179
July 25th...at the very beginning it states when this report was generated
OOOPS...July 31st
 

farouk

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Great idea. Meantime, tell us about that "hiatus" in contrails you think happened. In what years did that happen?

You see, the conditions necessary for contrails are always seen somewhere on Earth, and so they are always forming:

A contrail will form behind a jet if, as exhaust gases cool and mix with surrounding air, the humidity is high enough and the temperature low enough for liquid water to condense. The air needs to be supersaturated and the temperature generally below -40°F, something that typically occurs only in the upper troposphere, the atmospheric layer several miles up where airliners cruise. Under those conditions, water vapor from the jet's exhaust and secondarily from the atmosphere condenses into water droplets. Within a few tens of feet behind the aircraft, these droplets freeze into the snow-white particles that bring the contrail to life.


How long a newly formed condensation trail sticks around depends on the ambient humidity. If humidity is low, contrails will rapidly dissipate, looking like a comet's tail. The ice particles sublimate—meaning go straight from ice to vapor—and you're back to blue sky. If humidity is high, however, contrails can persist—and those are the ones that trouble climatologists.
The Contrail Effect

And it's been going on for a long, long time...


B-17 contrails, WWII:
iu


Notice that they have to be high enough for the effect to work. The lower bombers don't form the contrails, although they are giving off the same water vapor from fuel combustion.
@Yehren I like the photo! I seem to have lost the thread of the discussion, though...
 
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Yehren

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July 25th...at the very beginning it states when this report was generated
OOOPS...July 31st

But the period covered is to July 11. And the fact that it doesn't include new death data for COVID-19, means we have to collect that from elsewhere. Fortunately, a lot of different agencies do keep that data, some of which are not under Trump's control.
 

Yehren

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Are you ADHD? You brought up hiatus....not me.

Actually, you brought up contrails. Are you ADHD? Marks brought up the supposed "hiatus." Again, if you don't want to talk about it, it's a good idea not to bring it up.