Graphed stats for Australia including the published figures for 4-9-20

Attached are two graphs which present a picture of what is happening within Australia and Victoria based on official government reported data.






At some point, we have to accept the reported data from the respective Governments in Australia.

When comparing the first wave with the second wave, the likelihood that the 14 day detection tally will get below a tally of 200 cases over any 14 day period is not likely to happen for a further two to three weeks. The success of reaching that goal is very dependant on the compliance of the population of Australians as a whole with the regulated covid safe practices for the various state jurisdiction within Australia.

As for the recession that is sweeping Australia at the moment, that has been very dependant on the good stewardship of the respective three yearly governing parties in power to not go deeply into debt in the years prior to this year. My understanding is that both political parties have practice political expediency, i.e. corruption, to remain in power by heavily borrowing money to bank role their promises. But that is another story which will become lost in the rhetoric of point scoring by the respective parties in question.

Shalom

Figures for 12-09-2020 for those who are interested.





From the above, it would seem to me that the relaxation of the lock down is still another 3 to 4 weeks out as a best guess.

Graphed figures for 19-09-2020 for those who are interested to see the changes happening.

Data up to and including reported data on the 26-09-2020 or those interested in seeing the changes that are occurring: -





It would seem that in the Victorian situation the level 4 restriction can be eased except in the regions where there are still hot spots. The 14 day reported daily averages for Victoria is still above 25 recorded cases over this period and the restrictions within the hot spot areas may not be able to be lifted for another 14 or so days. However the maintaining of the borders around these areas to stop the flow of the virus across these borders will be a lot more difficult to police.

@Rita,

The second charts in my posts above is showing whether there is any controls being exerted by the people to reduce the number of reported Covid19 cases on a daily basis. The indication of controls being effective is if the rate of change in the 14 day totals is oscillating around zero and the size of the oscillations is decaying towards zero. While people ignore the control measures the number of daily recorded cases will increase rapidly and the rate of change in the 14 day totals will be positive and as the first graphs in the posts above indicate while this number difference number is high the graph of the moving 14 day totals will be rising. When the people discover that their ignoring of the health directives is causing a rise in the 14 day tally, it can take two or three weeks before the change in their now acceptance of the health directives begin to be reflected in either graph in the post above and we begin to see negative numbers in the daily moving 14 day totals and the control measures begin to work towards reducing the size of the daily moving 14 day total downwards towards zero.

As this line approaches zero an exponential decay in the daily moving 14 day total can be observed.

Health experts have suggested that a moving 14 day total under 50 for Australia would be an acceptable risk level as long as it is maintained below 50 leading into and during the time that an effective vaccine becomes available.

Health experts have also suggested that a fairly high number of tested people for the Covid19 virus have shown that they have been able to build up antibodies as a means of defence against the covid19 virus and that this number could be significantly high. Where people have not been able to build up antibodies against the covid19 virus, that they have succumbed to the virus and as such they have tested positive to the virus.

While ever people are doing what is best for the whole society the virus will not take a strong hold in the people within our respective societies.

On the other hand, where people are not acting in the best interests for the whole society, the virus will take hold and many more people will die before a vaccine can be developed.

The sad thing is that there are people who do not have a heart for the people around them and as such they are only looking after their own selfish irrational needs.

Just read this on NineMSN news

Melbourne's 9pm curfew will finally be lifted tomorrow night after the state recorded just 16 new cases and far fewer in past weeks than expected.

Premier Daniel Andrews announced major changes to the roadmap out of lockdown at his daily press conference on Sunday.


How fast the state reopens will be determined by how many cases there are, instead of dates set ahead of time - as progress is faster than expected.

'It means that getting back to the things we love - seeing more of the people we love - not only is achievable, it's in our hands,' Mr Andrews said.

However, Mr Andrews also enormously increased the fine for breaking coronavirus gathering limits to $5,000 - well up from $1,600.

Data up to and including reported data on the 03-10-2020 for those interested in seeing the changes that are occurring: -





The second chart is showing that the control measures are working and it seems that within a week or so the rate of change in the 14 day totals will begin to oscillate around zero and a flat base line of total 14 days of recorded virus infections will stabilise some where hopefully, around 30-50 recorded infection over the moving 14 day period. After the first wave of infections, the moving 14 day tally hovered around 200, Australia wide. Victoria after the first wave, did record a 14 day moving total of recorded infection on two days was under 70 based on my figures with a daily change in the 14 day tally of just under 5.

This will tell, is the Victorian people willing to continue complying with the covid19 safe interaction practices. I think that all in Australia are looking expectantly for that outcome.

Data up to and including reported data on the 10-10-2020 for those interested in seeing the changes that are occurring: -

Please note that the previous two graphs have been condensed into on graph and the Moving 14 day reported cases for Australia misuse the Victorian data has been added to the graph.



What should be noted is that the two states that have the majority of the reported Covid19 cases is NSW and VIC.

On the available data it would seem that the majority of reported cases are being reported from the larger cities of Sydney and Melbourne in NSW and VIC respectfully.

The Figures for the rest of Australia, i.e. QLD, TAS, SA, WA, NT and ACT, are fairly minor as far as the Covid 19 pandemic is concerned in Australia as a whole. This trend is probably also observable in other countries.

Data up to and including reported data on the 17-10-2020 for those interested in seeing the changes that are occurring: -



The above graph is showing the control measures are working in all the states with the occasional outbreak in each of the states.

Below are the reported daily cases for Australia



It is hoped that NSW can also reduce the "super cells" from developing also.

Data up to and including reported data on the 24-10-2020 for those interested in seeing the changes that are occurring: -

Data up to and including reported data on the 31-10-2020 for those interested in seeing the changes that are occurring: -





All errors and omissions accepted in the above data

Data up to and including reported data on the 07-11-2020 for those interested in seeing the changes that are occurring: -





All errors and omissions accepted in the above data

Data up to and including reported data on the 14-11-2020 for those interested in seeing the changes that are occurring: -





My observation is that the Covid19 effected cases presently being recorded in Australia have been found among the returning Australian citizens which means that the local transmission of the Covid19 virus for all practical reasons is zero at this present time. What this means is that the control measures by all of the respective states are presently being observed by their respective citizens. If this compliance with the respective state directives for the control of the Covid19 pandemic means that Australia is now effectively covid19 virus free at the moment.

Shalom