Iran’s Nuclear leap

[Christina]

UN nuclear watchdog says Iran has begun enriching uranium on a far larger scale after solving most technological problems – NY TimesMay 15, 2007, 12:40 PM (GMT+02:00)DEBKAfile reports: Iran’s nuclear leap catches the Bush administration preparing to start pulling US troops out of Iraq and embarking on an ultra-sensitive dialogue with Iran. Washington says the talks with Tehran will be confined to the Iraq crisis. However, they are bound to range over other issues, such as Persian Gulf security, Lebanon and the Palestinians. In advance of the IAEA report to the UN Security Council next Monday, May 21, a short-notice inspection found Iranian engineers to be using roughly 1,300 centrifuges and producing enough fuel suitable for nuclear reactors. Iranian scientists appear to have surmounted the technological roadblocks preventing their bringing the P2 centrifuges up to speed. To attain bomb-grade material, the product Iran has achieved so far would have to undergo further enrichment, but the energy agency’s director Mohammed ElBaradei said: “We believe they pretty much have the knowledge about how to enrich. From now on, it is simply a question of perfecting that knowledge.” “One diplomat in Vienna said Iran could have 3,000 centrifuges operating by June – enough to make material for one bomb every year - and add another 5,000 by the end of the year. Even with bomb-grade material, Iran is not thought to have the technology to produce a weapon small enough to fit atop a missile or for delivery by air.DEBKAfile’s US and Iranian sources expect the US-Iran talks to evolve into a discussion on the sharing-out of influence in Iraq and possibly other parts of the region. Such wide-ranging bargaining is bound to impact instantly on all its member-nations.Iran has been quick to mark out territory. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad paid a state visit to Abu Dhabi Sunday, May 14. US vice president Dick Cheney’s trip to the sheikdom two days earlier was kept low-key. The Iranian president’s was accompanied by pomp and fanfare. He strutted and swaggered as he addressed an audience of 80,000 at the big UAE football stadium, threatening “severe retaliation” if the US attacked his country over its nuclear program. His posture bespoke Tehran’s sense that its aggressive tactics had prevailed and forced the United States into retreat. There was no sign that Ahmadenijad was impressed by the presence of the USS Stennis carrier strike group close to Abu Dhabi’s shores, or by Cheney’s declaration Friday aboard the vessel that the US would “stand with others to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear weapons and dominating this region.” Neither were Iran’s neighbors. It is common knowledge that Washington has stepped back from its demand that Iran cease enriching uranium, as reported previously by DEBKAfile.Our sources add: As Iran’s nuclear weapons capability draws ever closer, the four-day national command war game Israel launched Monday, May 14 for top national policy-makers and commanders would appear to be aptly timed. However, prime minister Ehud Olmert, the key player with the biggest certified knowledge deficit in full-scale conflict management, has been otherwise engaged. He spent day one of the exercise touring northern Israel and strewing promises of funding for better shelters for the umpteenth time. Local civic leaders greeted the fresh round of pledges with extreme skepticism. Later he worked with his lawyers on a bid to bring the state controller to book for criticizing him. Tuesday, Olmert traveled to Jordan to attend a gathering of 44 Nobel Peace Laureates at Petra. He continued to Aqaba for a private meeting with Jordan’s King Abdullah at his summer villa. A few hours earlier, the US vice president was due to fly out of Jordan, the last stop of his Middle East tour. He did not stay to meet the prime minister.