Chapter Sixteen(II) The Communism Behind Environmentalism
Table of Contents
2. The Myth of Consensus on Climate Change (continued)
c. Scientists Disagree Regarding ‘Consensus’
d. Why Environmentalist Scientists Push Catastrophe Scenarios
3. Environmentalism: Another Form of Communism
a. Political Infiltration: Building a World Government
b. Blaming Capitalism
c. Media Suppression of Opposing Voices
d. ‘Civil’ Groups Manipulated for Street Revolution
e. A New Religion of Anti-Humanism
Conclusion: To Escape Environmental Crisis, Honor the Divine and Restore Tradition
References
2. The Myth of ‘Consensus’ on Climate Change (continued)
c. Scientists Disagree Regarding ‘Consensus’
As mentioned earlier, scientists have different views on whether human activity is the main factor affecting climate change, as well as how climate change will play out in the future. There are many reasons for this wide range of opinions. First, climate change is a very broad and complex subject, involving many fields, such as astronomy, meteorology, ecology, photochemistry, spectroscopy, oceanography, and more. Climate involves many interacting subsystems, such as the earth’s atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and lithosphere. There are many physical, chemical, and biological processes that are still far from being well-understood.
Looking at geological history, the earth has never stopped undergoing climate change, including frequent episodes of global warming. More than 3,000 years ago, during China’s Shang Dynasty, the Central Plain (part of the North China Plain) was once a subtropical landscape. People hunted elephants, as recorded multiple times in the oracle bone script of the period. The average annual temperature is estimated to have been around 2 degrees Celsius higher than it is now. In the Tang Dynasty (626–907), there was another period of warming. Citrus could be grown in the imperial palace of Chang’an in today’s northwestern China. [1] In the West, Europeans undertook the construction of exquisite cathedrals during a time of medieval warming lasting from about 950 to 1250. [2]
According to geological records, the northern hemisphere experienced a rapid warming up about 11,270 years ago, when the average temperature rose rapidly by about 4 C within a few years. Another famous warming occurred near the end of the Younger Dryas period about 11,550 years ago, when the temperature soared by about 10 C for decades. [3] The causes of these climate changes are still the subject of debate among scientists.
Naturally, if we are unable to explain the reasons for climate change in the past, then we are also hard-pressed to explain the causes of climate change in modern times. Historical causes for climate changes in the past may still be at work. Many scientists believe that we should treat the issue with humility and be willing to admit the limits of our knowledge.
Distinguished scientist Dr. Freeman Dyson, a member of United States National Academy of Sciences and a Fellow of the Royal Society, believes that modern science does not understand climate change:
The most questionable of these beliefs is the notion that the science of climate change is settled and understood. The biggest of all climate changes have been the ice ages, which have covered half of North America and Europe with kilometer-thick sheets of ice. Ice ages happened repeatedly in the past, and we are about due for another one to start. A new ice age would be a disaster far greater than anything we have to fear from climate warming. There are many theories of ice ages, but no real understanding. So long as we do not understand ice ages, we do not understand climate change. [4]
Due to the complexity of climate issues, it is impossible to conduct experiments and verify theories under controlled laboratory conditions. Scientists doing climatology research now rely on digital climate models.
The key evidence provided by the IPCC report to conclude that humans are the leading cause of global warming comes from climate-change simulations. Speculation about how much the temperature will increase at the end of the twenty-first century is also the result of such simulations. The catastrophic consequences predicted to result from climate change are also based on speculation using the computerized models.
But these models come with their own limitations, and many scientists have reservations about their reliability. Professor Judith Curry believes that natural factors not accounted for in climate-change modeling play a major role. [5] In an article published in the Bulletin of American Meteorology Society, she wrote that the IPCC had largely ignored the uncertainty of model calculations. [6]
Either because of a lack of understanding of the key processes in climate change, or for want of computing power, some of the facts cannot be represented realistically in climate models. Researchers adopt parameterization, which simplifies the model by using incomplete data for processes such the formation of clouds (including their interaction with water vapor), precipitation processes, interactions between clouds and solar radiation, and chemical and physical processes of the aerosols (the liquid or solid small particles in the atmosphere), and the like. [7] All of this introduces significant uncertainty to the model.
Water vapor is the most abundant and important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, but because it varies greatly by period and location, the corresponding uncertainty is also large. [8] At different altitudes, the greenhouse effect of water vapor varies, and the satellite measurement error of vertical distribution of water vapor can be up to 15 or 40 percent. [9]
Clouds at lower altitudes have a strong cooling effect caused by reflecting sunlight, and semi-transparent cirrus clouds at higher altitudes have a warming effect. Some aerosols, such as volcanic aerosols, block sunlight and induce cooling, while others, such as soot particles, absorb radiation and create warming. Meanwhile, aerosols are likely to seed clouds, causing indirect cooling. The spatial and geographical distribution of aerosols and clouds and the optical properties also vary greatly across the planet. Other factors also affect changes in the albedo (solar reflectivity of the earth), such as the growth and death of terrestrial vegetation.
Either due to lack of sufficient observational data or to insufficient understanding by scientists at present, these important processes lead to a large degree of freedom (that is, arbitrariness) in the parameterization of climate models, which greatly increases their uncertainty. These uncertainties fuel much of the skepticism surrounding the validity of the models. For example, greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide give the earth a direct radiative forcing of about 2.5 watts per square meter, [10] while the earth receives about 1,366 watts [11] of radiant solar energy per square meter. The two one-thousandths in albedo change caused by the uncertainty in modeling cloud or aerosol activity is enough to exceed the claimed role of greenhouse gases.
Harvard University scientist Willie Soon and others believe that climate models are not suitable for speculation about future climate change. [12] Princeton physicist Freeman Dyson called the parameterization in the model a “fudge factor” because these parameters can be artificially adjusted. He thinks we can learn from the model, but we can’t use it to predict: “So then you have a formula. … But if you are using it for a different climate, when you have twice as much carbon dioxide, there is no guarantee that that’s right. There is no way to test it.” [13] Dr. Dyson also criticized the IPCC for largely ignoring the role of the sun in the climate system. He believes that the sun, not man, is the main determinant of climate change.
Starting in 2002, Israeli scientist Nir J. Shaviv wrote a series of papers arguing that based on the correlation between the extent of cloud cover observed by satellites and the amount of cosmic radiation, the earth’s ice ages were related to cosmic rays. He concluded that the latter has led to climate change. At the same time, he said that changes in solar radiation played the same (if not a greater) role as human activities in the rise of average global temperatures in the twentieth century. He believes that man-made greenhouse gases play a smaller role in global warming than is generally believed. [14]
There are some internal changes in the climate itself that are yet to be fully understood and thus defy correct representation in the digital climate models. The existing climate models cannot describe the El Niño phenomenon correctly, let alone predict it. [15] Since the highest temperatures in the Holocene between 7,000 years and 9,000 years ago, the global temperature has dropped by 0.5 C to 1 C, but the calculations of the model show that it has increased by 0.5 to 1 degree in the past 11,000 years. The fact that carbon dioxide content has been rising in the past 6,000 to 7,000 years shows that the model is only sensitive to the warming effects of greenhouse gases. [16 ] In general, among the various factors affecting change in the climate system, the models can only reflect the effects of warming caused by greenhouse gas, while the cooling caused by other factors is not accurately reflected.[Read more in PDF]
