Graphed stats for Australia including the published figures for 4-9-20

[Jay Ross]

Attached are two graphs which present a picture of what is happening within Australia and Victoria based on official government reported data.






At some point, we have to accept the reported data from the respective Governments in Australia.

When comparing the first wave with the second wave, the likelihood that the 14 day detection tally will get below a tally of 200 cases over any 14 day period is not likely to happen for a further two to three weeks. The success of reaching that goal is very dependant on the compliance of the population of Australians as a whole with the regulated covid safe practices for the various state jurisdiction within Australia.

As for the recession that is sweeping Australia at the moment, that has been very dependant on the good stewardship of the respective three yearly governing parties in power to not go deeply into debt in the years prior to this year. My understanding is that both political parties have practice political expediency, i.e. corruption, to remain in power by heavily borrowing money to bank role their promises. But that is another story which will become lost in the rhetoric of point scoring by the respective parties in question.

Shalom

 

[Jay Ross]

Figures for 12-09-2020 for those who are interested.





From the above, it would seem to me that the relaxation of the lock down is still another 3 to 4 weeks out as a best guess.

 

[Jay Ross]

Graphed figures for 19-09-2020 for those who are interested to see the changes happening.

 

[Jay Ross]

Data up to and including reported data on the 26-09-2020 or those interested in seeing the changes that are occurring: -





It would seem that in the Victorian situation the level 4 restriction can be eased except in the regions where there are still hot spots. The 14 day reported daily averages for Victoria is still above 25 recorded cases over this period and the restrictions within the hot spot areas may not be able to be lifted for another 14 or so days. However the maintaining of the borders around these areas to stop the flow of the virus across these borders will be a lot more difficult to police.

 

[Rita]

We are in our second wave at the moment, with cases rising as it did with the first wave. They have locked down individual cities where cases are high, and brought in restrictions elsewhere. Whether we go into another complete lockdown will be determined in about three weeks, although they are endeavouring to keep schools, shops and businesses open as much as possible. We are heading into our flu season and it’s starting to get colder, which doesn’t help !
They have made progress with the vaccine over here in Oxford, now In phase four , which means giving the virus to volunteers and trialling the vaccine.
Rita

 

[Jay Ross]

@Rita,

The second charts in my posts above is showing whether there is any controls being exerted by the people to reduce the number of reported Covid19 cases on a daily basis. The indication of controls being effective is if the rate of change in the 14 day totals is oscillating around zero and the size of the oscillations is decaying towards zero. While people ignore the control measures the number of daily recorded cases will increase rapidly and the rate of change in the 14 day totals will be positive and as the first graphs in the posts above indicate while this number difference number is high the graph of the moving 14 day totals will be rising. When the people discover that their ignoring of the health directives is causing a rise in the 14 day tally, it can take two or three weeks before the change in their now acceptance of the health directives begin to be reflected in either graph in the post above and we begin to see negative numbers in the daily moving 14 day totals and the control measures begin to work towards reducing the size of the daily moving 14 day total downwards towards zero.

As this line approaches zero an exponential decay in the daily moving 14 day total can be observed.

Health experts have suggested that a moving 14 day total under 50 for Australia would be an acceptable risk level as long as it is maintained below 50 leading into and during the time that an effective vaccine becomes available.

Health experts have also suggested that a fairly high number of tested people for the Covid19 virus have shown that they have been able to build up antibodies as a means of defence against the covid19 virus and that this number could be significantly high. Where people have not been able to build up antibodies against the covid19 virus, that they have succumbed to the virus and as such they have tested positive to the virus.

While ever people are doing what is best for the whole society the virus will not take a strong hold in the people within our respective societies.

On the other hand, where people are not acting in the best interests for the whole society, the virus will take hold and many more people will die before a vaccine can be developed.

The sad thing is that there are people who do not have a heart for the people around them and as such they are only looking after their own selfish irrational needs.

 

[Jay Ross]

Just read this on NineMSN news

Melbourne's 9pm curfew will finally be lifted tomorrow night after the state recorded just 16 new cases and far fewer in past weeks than expected.

Premier Daniel Andrews announced major changes to the roadmap out of lockdown at his daily press conference on Sunday.


How fast the state reopens will be determined by how many cases there are, instead of dates set ahead of time - as progress is faster than expected.

'It means that getting back to the things we love - seeing more of the people we love - not only is achievable, it's in our hands,' Mr Andrews said.

However, Mr Andrews also enormously increased the fine for breaking coronavirus gathering limits to $5,000 - well up from $1,600.

 

[Josho]

It's good in a way, that Dan Andrews is still holding some tough restrictions, I can see that he wants to get it to a point where they can do their best to prevent a Third Wave from happening, this will depend on the Victorian people too when restrictions are further relaxed.

 

[Josho]

It's good in a way, that Dan Andrews is still holding some tough restrictions, I can see that he wants to get it to a point where they can do their best to prevent a Third Wave from happening, this will depend on the Victorian people too when restrictions are further relaxed.

All these restrictions should be no surprise to all Australians, Australia has always had some of the toughest border control laws in the world, even pre-pandemic, Australia has been very strict on bio security for years.

 

[69chapels]

(its a form of "assisted suicide", taking the risk of coronavirus, watching people die .......... and for very foolish reasons, mostly parties or big gatherings ............... a "fine/money" is probably not the best answer ............ "mandatory community service or imprisonment" .............. remove "income" from the equation, this is mass suicide, not the dichotomy, of "classism")

(secondarily, maybe time to give something back, like, every three weeks you get paid for half a week, less hours or a day off. society is a bottom feeder, feeding off the need to make people suffer for pleasure, to make their lives very grueling, and to haggle the poor, and the disenfranchised)

(I have big expectation for coronavirus, this is not like the usa. Where minorities use this as an opportunity to commit suicide, spread coronavirus, and tear society down, nothing but a lot of mental illness, what society does with people already is more then unclean. Maybe crack down on social media, because "social media is being used like a weapon", but what can be done? You have to make a choice, don't allow "social media" on devices that can "take phone/cellular calls", that includes devices with "gps on it", if you want to crack down that much) (people feel save with the human voice, they don't respond the same to text messages)

(limit the amount of social media devices, an individual can carry in a vehicle..............the people committing suicide with coronavirus, are not exactly poor and living day to day ................ you see in the usa, how foolish the people are here to focus their attention on eating in restaurants and eating outdoors, in most cases, next to pee/urine, and very bad body odors from the public)

(lots of people may die this winter, or maybe not, coronavirus is not officially 1 years of age yet, so we are still not 1 full seasonal cycle complete. Now we can see if these "flu vaccines", contribute to coronavirus, and giving "flu vaccines" stopping the immune system from performing the work is, very very foolish, but, if that is an indication people will take the vaccine, then they are acceptable loses, and certain practices should remain the same)

(pick an area and stop people from wearing masks, you need a control group, to see if this behavior is any good or just a placebo)

 

[Jay Ross]

Data up to and including reported data on the 03-10-2020 for those interested in seeing the changes that are occurring: -





The second chart is showing that the control measures are working and it seems that within a week or so the rate of change in the 14 day totals will begin to oscillate around zero and a flat base line of total 14 days of recorded virus infections will stabilise some where hopefully, around 30-50 recorded infection over the moving 14 day period. After the first wave of infections, the moving 14 day tally hovered around 200, Australia wide. Victoria after the first wave, did record a 14 day moving total of recorded infection on two days was under 70 based on my figures with a daily change in the 14 day tally of just under 5.

This will tell, is the Victorian people willing to continue complying with the covid19 safe interaction practices. I think that all in Australia are looking expectantly for that outcome.

 

[Jay Ross]

Data up to and including reported data on the 10-10-2020 for those interested in seeing the changes that are occurring: -

Please note that the previous two graphs have been condensed into on graph and the Moving 14 day reported cases for Australia misuse the Victorian data has been added to the graph.



What should be noted is that the two states that have the majority of the reported Covid19 cases is NSW and VIC.

On the available data it would seem that the majority of reported cases are being reported from the larger cities of Sydney and Melbourne in NSW and VIC respectfully.

The Figures for the rest of Australia, i.e. QLD, TAS, SA, WA, NT and ACT, are fairly minor as far as the Covid 19 pandemic is concerned in Australia as a whole. This trend is probably also observable in other countries.

 

[Jay Ross]

Data up to and including reported data on the 17-10-2020 for those interested in seeing the changes that are occurring: -



The above graph is showing the control measures are working in all the states with the occasional outbreak in each of the states.

Below are the reported daily cases for Australia



It is hoped that NSW can also reduce the "super cells" from developing also.

 

[Josho]

Data up to and including reported data on the 17-10-2020 for those interested in seeing the changes that are occurring: -

View attachment 11162

The above graph is showing the control measures are working in all the states with the occasional outbreak in each of the states.

Below are the reported daily cases for Australia

View attachment 11163

It is hoped that NSW can also reduce the "super cells" from developing also.

The last 2 days have been very good results for Victoria, it looks like the strategy continues to work well.

 

[Josho]

Testing numbers for Australia as of 22nd October 2020.

An interesting stat, in Victoria alone it's nearly 500,000 tests for every 1 million people, in the whole of Australia it's over 333,333 tests for every 1 million people, even though some have been tested multiple times.

 

[Jay Ross]

Data up to and including reported data on the 24-10-2020 for those interested in seeing the changes that are occurring: -

 

[Jay Ross]

Data up to and including reported data on the 31-10-2020 for those interested in seeing the changes that are occurring: -





All errors and omissions accepted in the above data

 

[Josho]

@Jay Ross

Only 20 active cases now in Victoria, if we stay on course here in Victoria, we could possibly get total active cases down to 0.

There have been 0 cases recorded in the last 6 days.

 

[Jay Ross]

Data up to and including reported data on the 07-11-2020 for those interested in seeing the changes that are occurring: -





All errors and omissions accepted in the above data

 

[Jay Ross]

Data up to and including reported data on the 14-11-2020 for those interested in seeing the changes that are occurring: -





My observation is that the Covid19 effected cases presently being recorded in Australia have been found among the returning Australian citizens which means that the local transmission of the Covid19 virus for all practical reasons is zero at this present time. What this means is that the control measures by all of the respective states are presently being observed by their respective citizens. If this compliance with the respective state directives for the control of the Covid19 pandemic means that Australia is now effectively covid19 virus free at the moment.

Shalom