QUOTE (Dunamite @ Feb 25 2009, 11:02 PM)
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The housing crisis will be small compared to the next wave which will be malls closing as retailers close shop and there aren't enough to sustain the mall or business district. This will mean even lower tax revenues for municipalities.America and most other developed countries are consumer based economies. Without consumers the house of cards that we have built collapses. I am not spreading doom and gloom. It is just the nature of our society. We cannot switch from a society based on consumption to one based on production unless we can compete with the low wages in the rest of the world. Capital is like water, it seeks the lowest level.We have lived a shared delusion for too long and now the party is over. Most people have been encouraged to consume beyond their means to pay and that could not go on forever. This crisis is a reality check. We need to use that time to decide how we will remake our society rather than concentrating on recapturing what we lost. That is not going to happen. The Chinese and others aren't willing to finance our debt and high living and are now questioning the validity of bailout. Where is the money going to come from?US debt has been financed by others, The US could print more money as long as others were willing to absorb the loss. Now they are saying, enough. If the US persists then they have a trump card to play. The US dollar could lose its status as a reserve currency and if this happens all of that debt becomes real money in someone else's currency and the US cannot print money to cover it and the gold reserves do not exist. In short the US could go bankrupt. This is a worst case scenario, but it can happen if the cards are not played right. It did not serve anyone's interest to change things as long as the other countries had hope of being paid back. Now they are questioning whether they will be and would rather take a one time loss than compound their own problems.If you think that it can't get worse, then think again.
I'll give my simplistic interpretation of the whole economic mess, and I held this view for the last 30 years or more since I became a young adult:
cheap employers. I could see it coming on strongly for MANY years. Where did our jobs go? The bigger corporations (like the one I used to work for) sent them overseas. The smaller ones just hire illegal immigrants. Even Obama (as much as I disdain his BIGGER government intervention)
at least made the first priority of getting more jobs. He claimed that one would know the stimulus package was working if 1) one sees the layoff trends decrease and more hiring again, 2)As a result of more confidence the banking industry bounces back, and 3) the housing market improves.This will (supposedly) result in businesses producing goods and services again and getting the economy rolling again. But these fat cats just do not learn their lesson. It's too much to ask for a moderate 5-digit salary for years of experience and all the education and training they expect from you while they sit back and make $100,000,000 a year. I'm sorry, but nobody is worth that much. Even with the outrageous health costs, a worker may cost a moderate sized company $100K yearly. Compare that to a BIG CEO that makes $100M. The same as 1000 people? That's the size of a medium town! I say fire one CEO and give good jobs to even if
only half (500 people) when considering costs and a 500 hire:1 fire ratio sounds good to me, Then put the fat cat in something where they actually have to work for a living like being a lineman or logging (instead of sitting behind a desk and laying-off the likes of the same vital people). And on the other hand, round up the 7M illegals (this will take time I realize) and eventually give those jobs to Americans. This in itself will cut the unemployment rate by about 1/2.Lastly, I would cut out two big enterprises which I blame directly for contributing to this mess: the government (becoming too inflated) and the medical establishment (esp drug companies). If you want to have jobs, those places are doing fine right now, but I lump them in with the cheap employer category and IMO we'd do fine with them both whittled down a bit.I think the Tim_from_pa economic stimulus plan would work quite well.