Senator Cruz recently warned about a potential bloodbath for the Republican Party. For once, I have to agree with Cruz. While it is possible that Republicans could retain control over the Senate, it is only remotely possible.
Real Clear Politics' map of the Senate with no toss-ups has Democrats winding up with 51 seats to the Republicans' 49.
Chart here:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/2020_elections_senate_map_no_toss_ups.html
My own projection is 50 - 50. I'm not sure where my projection differs from theirs. I think most people agree however that Republicans will win in Alabama. That is the only seat held by a Democrat that anyone thinks will be won by his Republican challenger. Let's start with that race then.
Jeff Sessions used to hold that seat and probably still would if he hadn't quit to become Attorney General for Trump. The contest in 2017 to replace him was a disaster for Republicans with Judge Moore being the Republican candidate. Moore's reputation was left in tatters, but Doug Jones still won only by a slim margin: 50.0% to 48.3%.
"Ten Commanments" Judge Moore ran again in the current primary but lost to Tommy Tuberville 32% to 5%. Sessions also ran with Trump endorsing Tuberville and Sessions came in second with 29%. Moral of this story: Don't join the Trump administration if you want job security. Many people think Trump's endorsement probably clinched it for Tuberville since Trump supporters thought Sessions had been disloyal to Trump.
The state is overwhelmingly Republican, so it is doubtful Jones can hold on there. RCP lists two polls, both of which favor Tuberville by 8% in February and by 12% in September-October. There was another poll by a group I'd never heard of, FM3 Research, which was done in October and which gives Jones a 1% lead. I don't know how reliable that company is, so I don't know how seriously to take their poll. They did show an interesting result however about how early voting is going there with 65% of the people who had already voted supporting Jones to Tuberville's 23% -- leaving 12% not saying how they voted.
If true, that means the Republican Party has to get out the vote. It might be possible for Jones to win there; and I suppose he might if Republicans don't go vote in big numbers. I expect Tuberville to win; but I'm not sure he will. Republicans in Alabama seem disenchanted with Trump somewhat. If they aren't excited by going to vote for Trump, that could hurt Tuberville. Trump's support in Alabama is definitely weaker than it was in 2016 when he won by 27.7%. Now he's ahead there by 6% in the latest poll -- 45% to 39%. A bigger older poll had Trump ahead of Biden by a mere 3%: 48% to 45%. Trump doesn't seem to have coat tails this time. He appears to be killing the Republican Party when he won by 28% in 2016 but now shows only a 6% lead.
Yes, Republicans know they need to get out the vote; and Tuberville knows he's ahead and is probably trying to stay as quiet as possible so he doesn't say something silly that could lose him the election.
Alabama Republicans pushing to excite their base to vote | WDHN - DothanFirst.com
Real Clear Politics' map of the Senate with no toss-ups has Democrats winding up with 51 seats to the Republicans' 49.
Chart here:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/2020_elections_senate_map_no_toss_ups.html
My own projection is 50 - 50. I'm not sure where my projection differs from theirs. I think most people agree however that Republicans will win in Alabama. That is the only seat held by a Democrat that anyone thinks will be won by his Republican challenger. Let's start with that race then.
Jeff Sessions used to hold that seat and probably still would if he hadn't quit to become Attorney General for Trump. The contest in 2017 to replace him was a disaster for Republicans with Judge Moore being the Republican candidate. Moore's reputation was left in tatters, but Doug Jones still won only by a slim margin: 50.0% to 48.3%.
"Ten Commanments" Judge Moore ran again in the current primary but lost to Tommy Tuberville 32% to 5%. Sessions also ran with Trump endorsing Tuberville and Sessions came in second with 29%. Moral of this story: Don't join the Trump administration if you want job security. Many people think Trump's endorsement probably clinched it for Tuberville since Trump supporters thought Sessions had been disloyal to Trump.
The state is overwhelmingly Republican, so it is doubtful Jones can hold on there. RCP lists two polls, both of which favor Tuberville by 8% in February and by 12% in September-October. There was another poll by a group I'd never heard of, FM3 Research, which was done in October and which gives Jones a 1% lead. I don't know how reliable that company is, so I don't know how seriously to take their poll. They did show an interesting result however about how early voting is going there with 65% of the people who had already voted supporting Jones to Tuberville's 23% -- leaving 12% not saying how they voted.
If true, that means the Republican Party has to get out the vote. It might be possible for Jones to win there; and I suppose he might if Republicans don't go vote in big numbers. I expect Tuberville to win; but I'm not sure he will. Republicans in Alabama seem disenchanted with Trump somewhat. If they aren't excited by going to vote for Trump, that could hurt Tuberville. Trump's support in Alabama is definitely weaker than it was in 2016 when he won by 27.7%. Now he's ahead there by 6% in the latest poll -- 45% to 39%. A bigger older poll had Trump ahead of Biden by a mere 3%: 48% to 45%. Trump doesn't seem to have coat tails this time. He appears to be killing the Republican Party when he won by 28% in 2016 but now shows only a 6% lead.
Yes, Republicans know they need to get out the vote; and Tuberville knows he's ahead and is probably trying to stay as quiet as possible so he doesn't say something silly that could lose him the election.
Alabama Republicans pushing to excite their base to vote | WDHN - DothanFirst.com
With the November election coming up in less than three weeks, Republican candidates and members are making a push to get people out and vote for their party.
“We got to excite our base and get our base out to vote,” Houston County District 4 commissioner Brandon Shoupe said. “I think if we do that, you know I think we’ll win so that’s gonna be key making sure your people show up to the polls to go vote.”
Candidate Barry Moore said that staying on the president’s message of a strong economy despite the pandemic will help win people over that aren’t Republican and pushing that message will do just that.
“I think if we stay on the message and stand behind the president, we’ve got a great opportunity here to rally all folks to our party, and so we’re trying to unite right now and finish well, and that’s the plan to play well and finish well,” Moore said.
U.S. Senate candidate Tommy Tuberville was expected to be at the Republican women’s meeting in Dothan but sent a campaign representative instead.
Political analyst Steve Flowers said there may be a reason Tuberville isn’t showing or speaking to the media.
“If he says something out of the ordinary, he can hurt himself,” flowers said. “That’s why he hasn’t debated; it’s his race to lose.”
“We got to excite our base and get our base out to vote,” Houston County District 4 commissioner Brandon Shoupe said. “I think if we do that, you know I think we’ll win so that’s gonna be key making sure your people show up to the polls to go vote.”
Candidate Barry Moore said that staying on the president’s message of a strong economy despite the pandemic will help win people over that aren’t Republican and pushing that message will do just that.
“I think if we stay on the message and stand behind the president, we’ve got a great opportunity here to rally all folks to our party, and so we’re trying to unite right now and finish well, and that’s the plan to play well and finish well,” Moore said.
U.S. Senate candidate Tommy Tuberville was expected to be at the Republican women’s meeting in Dothan but sent a campaign representative instead.
Political analyst Steve Flowers said there may be a reason Tuberville isn’t showing or speaking to the media.
“If he says something out of the ordinary, he can hurt himself,” flowers said. “That’s why he hasn’t debated; it’s his race to lose.”