Traders and Investors

[FHII]

Thanks for your insights! I was waiting to here your take on an interesting week. Unfortunately, I didn't notice you posted yesterday.

From my perspective we had a great week, then a 2 day fall, followed by a one day rally and today it fell again. I lost a little, but still am in the black. Lowes, Walmart, TJ Max, Dollar General all seem to be doing well although they dropped a little.

I spoke to you about an IPO (UIPath). It did well in its first few days in that it shot up $10 or so. Never bought in and no regrets! It was touted highly so perhaps investors were just being sheep. Obviously if I had foreknowledge I would've. But I plan to stick with my plan.

Seems to me that the market is over reactionary. A slight prophecy of bad news sends people into panic. Just seems strange to me.

If I may ask a question: you (John DB) don't seem too big on foreign markets. I am from the USA, so I mean Europe and especially Asia. Is that the xase, and why?

Thanks

 

[JohnDB]

Thanks for your insights! I was waiting to here your take on an interesting week. Unfortunately, I didn't notice you posted yesterday.

From my perspective we had a great week, then a 2 day fall, followed by a one day rally and today it fell again. I lost a little, but still am in the black. Lowes, Walmart, TJ Max, Dollar General all seem to be doing well although they dropped a little.

I spoke to you about an IPO (UIPath). It did well in its first few days in that it shot up $10 or so. Never bought in and no regrets! It was touted highly so perhaps investors were just being sheep. Obviously if I had foreknowledge I would've. But I plan to stick with my plan.

Seems to me that the market is over reactionary. A slight prophecy of bad news sends people into panic. Just seems strange to me.

If I may ask a question: you (John DB) don't seem too big on foreign markets. I am from the USA, so I mean Europe and especially Asia. Is that the xase, and why?

Thanks

I personally have never traded much in them. And usually when I have it's been a company that trades here in the States. Reason being is that our laws and rules are what I know. Getting the account set up and then traded requires some extra paperwork (AKA extreme torture) in setting up and then taxes to pay and conversion fees even when there's a favorable trading exchange. Like I just mentioned previously. (Won vs Dollar)

Most of the exposure I've had (tried and failed) was through mutual funds/ETFs that did that sort of for me...and I get that the return rates would be reduced...but losses have been my experience in those market places.

And if I understood them better... maybe things would be different.

Some people know that stuff so much better than I do. (I'm not a professional...just a guy who has some experience and expertise in market moves)

Most of your large manufacturing companies have some kind of international footprint. Even LPX has manufacturing facilities in Canada, Brazil and Chile. (Headquarters are here in Nashville)
Where other companies like ABEV are beverage makers in South America but traded exclusively in the States. Others just have a representative stock traded in America but are traded internationally. (Now I'm drawing a blank...and I was really looking at one to invest in but the gears in my head are grinding and can't find the gear...it was a european company)

But for me to trade in a foreign exchange? Too much trouble and risk. HYMX is another...they are solely a Taiwanese company traded here. (LCD driver's and screens) again posting great profits and good solid company that, on no news whatsoever, can drop 18% in one day. Market manipulation going on with no "citizen of America" to complain about the loss of capital. (Even though plenty of americans owned the stock)

And possibly the reason for the market upset of late is that money is moving en masse to bond and bond instruments recently. Interest income isn't taxed the same as capital gains. (Albeit very low returns) but when you are a multi billion dollar fund...that's all you are going to get anyway.

Those retail stocks you own did indeed hold up through yesterday's nightmare. I was noticing that as I looked at things like Colgate and WMT. (MAT had something going on with them...they were up and down...I exited when I looked at the short interest rate and short sales with my considered lucky profits)

Either way... you (and I'm doing this myself) am going to be working on taking profits here soon in my positions and letting the money sit in cash for a bit... until the market calms down and returns to normal life. It's always been skiddish. But massive money moves like this aren't exactly normal. It requires hundreds of millions of dollars to unreasonably tank a stock like Micron. And it has! Most of the largest brokerages are scratching their heads over this. My suspicion is that there's a fight amongst the wealthy elite (1%ers) that was ideological turned personal and now vicious. Usually they just don't care...but now they have gone nuts while quarantined.

The simplest of things have become unobtainable because of supply chain interruptions. Even the manufacturing of vaccines is being blocked by them.
They use some simple things. Salt by the pallet that used to show up in 2days after ordering now is going to show up in November. (Salt mfg are behind) and that is just one example. Memory chips for your cell phone or camera might be out of stock at your local electronics store. Certain items are also missing intermittently at the grocery store. Get used to it...these supply chain issues are going to be with us for a while yet... probably a few years.

It's going to be real fun when building residential homes but it can't move forward because there is no wire or plumbing available for the contractors for a few months. Stupid stuff like that...


But the futures are showing green across the board. Rough lumber stayed up yesterday. (Contractors don't care about anything but the jobs...they keep working no matter what the weather...that's why I like those guys)

Ought to be a good day today.

Just remember the hashtag #StuffasockinitJoe. Maybe he will get the message. I'm A-Political...I just don't care. I'm not ignorant...I just don't care to participate. I wanna stay out of his world and ask that he show me the same courtesy.

 

[JohnDB]

The week ended well. It was strange to end so strong. Usually Friday afternoons are dead and nothing happens. We seen very strong bullish buying at the end of the day for a complete reversal of the usual trend. Even retail investors were pouring in the money as well as institutional investors.

House Construction Boom.
There's a reason for it.
Mortgage rates are currently running around 2.5-3% for a 30 yr fixed rate mortgage. (Depending upon credit history and etc)

House prices on average are growing at 17.5%/yr on average.
Meaning that if you buy a house today and sell it in two years you will have made over 30% on the money you borrowed to purchase the home.
200,000 x 30% = $60,000.

That's like another income in your home while having a free place to live. All the while having the benefits of home ownership.
So...what would you do if you figured this out while living in an apartment?

So...needless to say that people have been buying homes with FHA and VA loans and upgrading to custom homes or upgrading their own home while quarantined with the equity in their home.

So...there are some really good plays in this boom cycle that hasn't existed since 2007.

A home bought 10 years ago is now generally worth 2x what you paid for it.

That means that construction materials manufacturers, suppliers, and contractors are all going to have great earnings.
And some/most of these companies are not going to have accurate forecasted earnings and sales. Mostly because most of the forecasters will simply look at last year's numbers and slap a 5% boost on them. (Computer generated article)

However many of these companies have doubled earnings forecasts. (UFPI is a precise example)

Recovery stock groups have been trying to make gains. And they have been all over the place. Stories about new quarantines make them tank... stories about numbers vaccinated make them boom.
Be careful when you invest in them. Always go in when everyone is dumping them AND ONLY IF they are not overburdened with debt. Many favored names are currently overburdened with debt loads from being idle for a year now. So pick and choose carefully. And look carefully. A company that is disposing of their debts but keeping enough free cash flow to operate without restrictions is what you want.
Then when they make good revenue and good profits everyone else will all of a sudden discover them and FOMO will make you the money.

Marinemax is a good example. They make boats and sell used boats. (Boats are holes in the water you pour money into) They are a recovery stock. They have been increasing sales and profits quietly. Touted by several publications but almost ignored by most institutional investors. Their numbers at their latest Earnings Report has changed that. Sure everyone knew the rumors and in March their stock reflected those rumors...then the stock price fell off and it got ignored... nobody wanted it... until earnings got released.
Now it's the fair-haired darling once again and the price has skyrocketed 15+% last week since the report. Plenty more room to grow as well. (It still hasn't reached March highs yet.) But a CAGR this year of 65+% and 14+% for the next 5 will do that for you.
(Biden's speech came on the heels of all this and really stole their thunder)

There are unloved stocks still out there...
Be careful with your choices. No matter what; earnings matter. Even if Biden gives another speech. Your house value is not going to change just because Joe says otherwise. The contractors are not going to stop building, everyone is not going to sell their house, and people will still want a house even if Biden gives a speech.
People still need new vehicles from wrecks and age destroying their old one. Microchip factories take two years minimum to build. (Really 3)
So...the president can't redefine physics. The laws of Supply and Demand are not subject to him. But that doesn't mean that bipolar/fearful reactions to his statements can't make you and me some money.

 

[JohnDB]

 

[JohnDB]

International trading is becoming more popular as digital communications and information is readily available.

And as a result of my studies...food prices are going to skyrocket.

Ethanol, sugar, corn, cotton, coffee, soybeans and lumber are all affected.

China imports of sugar are increasing. India can produce sugar. Both Brazil and USA produce use ethanol blended with gasoline. Sugar cane and sugar beets make ethanol. (Spiking in price) We can't control how much someone produces of a commodity like sugar. But things like drought can.

So...India has decided to grow and produce a bumper crop of sugar. Brazil has had a bit of a drought. But India has an issue with finding any shipping containers. (Suez Canal)

And the clock keeps ticking. China needs feed imports for it's livestock. (Poor soil conditions) Drought is a problem too.

The Real in Brazil has been really low for a while...but now is on a path to rise. Meaning that whatever Brazil produces has been cheap but is now going to get a healthy price increase from the money exchange rates.

This means things like Coffee, sugar, chocolate, cotton and hardwoods are all going to get much more expensive soon.

Money never sleeps...it's always 5:00 somewhere.
Meaning that large investors hide what they do...they never announce it. But that doesn't mean that someone else isn't proud that they have had large investors come and invest money from America.

So...while we were sleeping all the large companies have invested in places like Korea, Brazil and elsewhere. To purchase commodities and companies that produce these things.
Trillions of dollars. And as the money comes back to America it gets the nicer exchange rate of a devalued dollar without even investing...a double bonus.

We've experienced stagflation which is almost deflation and now we are going to have inflation. But our goods will export much more readily... like soft lumber and technology and foodstuffs. America feeds about 60% of the world with processed foods. (Cut up chickens, pork, beef, and grains)

Meaning that the money is coming back. Just not today. And you are going to have to get a second mortgage for that pot roast.

 

[FHII]

Well, I suppose I will be shopping more at Aldi's and less at Wegman's then!

I have a Vanguard ETF that deals heavily in foreign companies from all the countries you mentioned plus a few more (VWO). My investment in it is down .93%, but its up $5.25 in the last month and up 6.19% YTD! I don't know why I am in the red... Must've been real bad timing!

My plan is behind... I need more investments in bonds and foreign markets according to my platform, which again, is Stash. I wouldn't blame you, John DB is you are wondering what the heck I am doing by following the advice of a reprogrammed method. I agree, but I am learning and training myself to be disciplined. And right now, I'm kind of failing. I have invested in Walmart, Lowes, Dollar General and others. They have made me money and that's exciting and good! But I am not following the plan.

 

[JohnDB]

Well, I suppose I will be shopping more at Aldi's and less at Wegman's then!

I have a Vanguard ETF that deals heavily in foreign companies from all the countries you mentioned plus a few more (VWO). My investment in it is down .93%, but its up $5.25 in the last month and up 6.19% YTD! I don't know why I am in the red... Must've been real bad timing!

My plan is behind... I need more investments in bonds and foreign markets according to my platform, which again, is Stash. I wouldn't blame you, John DB is you are wondering what the heck I am doing by following the advice of a reprogrammed method. I agree, but I am learning and training myself to be disciplined. And right now, I'm kind of failing. I have invested in Walmart, Lowes, Dollar General and others. They have made me money and that's exciting and good! But I am not following the plan.

Retail/consumer cyclicals have been doing well. Their run is ending somewhat in my estimation as vaccinations hit snags and returns from quarantines are iffy while new ones are being instituted.

Right now there are severe supply chain interruptions over the dumbest things that once were easy to come by.
And the more complicated the product the more likely you will have a supply chain interruption and not sell your product.
If you have only 4 ingredients in your processed product but one is missing due to a train derailment... you are Out of Business...no matter whether you have available labor (highly difficult to come by) or not.
For some products it simply that they cannot get an empty container to ship it in. There's a container shortage and the ship that has a bunch is still being held by Egyptian officials in leu of damages after they blocked the Suez canal. (This might take some time) the crew is allowed their freedom...but the captain and the ship are being held until the damages are paid.

But...
If I were you...
I'm playing the commodities. Not directly.

Housing sales are up...so I have invested in a company similar to Pulte. Lumber is really up...so I invested in an OSB manufacturing company.
MicroChips have crippled the Automobile industry...so I invested in a chipmaker.

People are wanting their freedom as they come out of quarantine but still have no place to go so they will buy boats instead. (Marine max)

Static or increased demand and either supply chain issues or whatever causing high prices.
And that's my plan.

 

[JohnDB]

Well, I suppose I will be shopping more at Aldi's and less at Wegman's then!

I have a Vanguard ETF that deals heavily in foreign companies from all the countries you mentioned plus a few more (VWO). My investment in it is down .93%, but its up $5.25 in the last month and up 6.19% YTD! I don't know why I am in the red... Must've been real bad timing!

My plan is behind... I need more investments in bonds and foreign markets according to my platform, which again, is Stash. I wouldn't blame you, John DB is you are wondering what the heck I am doing by following the advice of a reprogrammed method. I agree, but I am learning and training myself to be disciplined. And right now, I'm kind of failing. I have invested in Walmart, Lowes, Dollar General and others. They have made me money and that's exciting and good! But I am not following the plan.

Also...don't completely blame yourself.
The market has been very very difficult and shifting since February.
From November through January it was a piece of cake. But anything with a positive story and you doubled your money.

Now they need earnings and revenue. And even then it's not a guarantee that the stock price will increase.

I look at dozens upon dozens of stocks every day. Looking at charts in various sectors that are doing well or I think will continue doing better than predicted.
Then comes time to really look at the company, the key people, the supply chains, and demand for the products they produce. I read analyst's reports...lots of them.
I read balance sheets and financial data before buying.

Out of 50-60 stocks I might find four worth looking into. Out of those I might find one every two days that might be worth putting money into. I set target entry and exits and initiate them in limit orders with stop losses also. I might stagger entry into a position and stagger my exit. I can actually come back and buy more after profit taking... because I might have missed something that makes their top point higher than I estimated.

Look around at what you have been seeing and see the financial benefits.

I'm up only around 5% for March and April combined...and for a while I was down. I expected to be up 20%. But the market has shifted drastically. And I'm rather more seasoned at this.

And ETFs are mostly for when you don't know what to invest in specifically but you want to aim at a particular market.

SOXL does the computer chip sector.
TQQQ does the S&P 500.
WOOD does construction stocks
NAIL does too.
UPRO also does the S&P.

ETFs are for ins and outs...not for a long long term. And these are just a few...there are hundreds more. Fidelity has some good ones. MorningStar has a great read on them... including the fund managers and everything else about them. I think that one costs around 100/yr.

I'm not recommending any ETFs that I have mentioned above because, to me, getting in and out is a singular day trade. 4-8 hours worth of holding them... maybe 24-28 hours max on certain days.

So relax...study...focus...and pretend you are explaining why the stock you are buying is going up to a "Doubting Thomas" who needs good visuals as to why you are investing in the stock...and your answer can't be "Because Fred Flintstone said to". Pretend you are the teacher responsible for what he/she knows.

 

[Josho]

Also...don't completely blame yourself.
The market has been very very difficult and shifting since February.
From November through January it was a piece of cake. But anything with a positive story and you doubled your money.

Now they need earnings and revenue. And even then it's not a guarantee that the stock price will increase.

I look at dozens upon dozens of stocks every day. Looking at charts in various sectors that are doing well or I think will continue doing better than predicted.
Then comes time to really look at the company, the key people, the supply chains, and demand for the products they produce. I read analyst's reports...lots of them.
I read balance sheets and financial data before buying.

Out of 50-60 stocks I might find four worth looking into. Out of those I might find one every two days that might be worth putting money into. I set target entry and exits and initiate them in limit orders with stop losses also. I might stagger entry into a position and stagger my exit. I can actually come back and buy more after profit taking... because I might have missed something that makes their top point higher than I estimated.

Look around at what you have been seeing and see the financial benefits.

I'm up only around 5% for March and April combined...and for a while I was down. I expected to be up 20%. But the market has shifted drastically. And I'm rather more seasoned at this.

And ETFs are mostly for when you don't know what to invest in specifically but you want to aim at a particular market.

SOXL does the computer chip sector.
TQQQ does the S&P 500.
WOOD does construction stocks
NAIL does too.
UPRO also does the S&P.

ETFs are for ins and outs...not for a long long term. And these are just a few...there are hundreds more. Fidelity has some good ones. MorningStar has a great read on them... including the fund managers and everything else about them. I think that one costs around 100/yr.

I'm not recommending any ETFs that I have mentioned above because, to me, getting in and out is a singular day trade. 4-8 hours worth of holding them... maybe 24-28 hours max on certain days.

So relax...study...focus...and pretend you are explaining why the stock you are buying is going up to a "Doubting Thomas" who needs good visuals as to why you are investing in the stock...and your answer can't be "Because Fred Flintstone said to". Pretend you are the teacher responsible for what he/she knows.

ETFs ETFs, Palladium has done really well in the past couple of months

 

[JohnDB]

ETFs ETFs, Palladium has done really well in the past couple of months

Palladium is an element used in making lithium batteries. And with all the EVs being made the stuff is needed.

All commodities have done well.

Commodities are an ingredient in production of other goods. But even a farmer can have supply chain interruptions...no different than a mine. Tractor and bulldozer parts. Pesticides and fertilizers.

The earnings season is here. I've been really busy trying to keep up with them all.

I've been making plays off of rough lumber and residential construction. Demand is so strong that there's not enough supply to fix it. And I've done well with it. Boat dealers and memory chips. Tomorrow Biden speaks...so I'm expecting the market to tank.
Has every other time he has done it. The leaked reports of his speech contents did some damage today already. (I was up in spite of it all...but I don't expect it to last)

 

[JohnDB]

Ok...
Commodities are going to get out of site expensive.
Many products like cotton, sugar, coffee, and chocolate come from South America.... even beef. Mostly from Brazil but also Argentina and Chile... either way Brazilian Real control the exchange rates.

Now the Brazilian Real (pronounced "reeh ya") is currently at an all time low.
Also Ethanol plays a role in this. Because Ethanol is made from sugar cane. Maybe corn at times but mostly sugar.

Currently these things are already at all time highs while the Real is at an all time low.
Currently American Government is trying to keep the Dollar low vx other currencies.
It makes imports expensive but our exports cheaper to purchase for other countries...and most of our exports are highly renewable resources.

So...

On a personal level...grow some groceries in your garden. Don't throw out clothes...
Find second hand shops to sell them in.

On an investment level... today is a good day to invest up until the first. Month ends usually have a selloff...that's the time to buy.

Get ready to need a mortgage on that new home to purchase a set of steaks. If they can find enough rough lumber to actually frame the house.

 

[FHII]

Now why do beef prices have to go up when I am just getting excited about grilling out?

My plan I am following is suggesting purchasing more bonds and foreign investments. I really don't want to! I have investments in one Vanguard bond. The 52 week low is 113.00 and the high is 119.00. Its growth since inception is 4.18% since 2006. I understand the concept that this means its stable, but gee wiz! Hard to get excited about it' especially since its been down lately!

As for foreign investments... I do trade through Stash so any difficulty with red tape is handled. But the EFT I have has a good portion of Indian companies. They are dealing with a heck of a Covid crisis right now. Now it is a pretty global ETF so the farther east, middle east and south america are represented as well.

I got into the market with the thought that ETFs were the way to go. I am pretty conservative minded financially. But I am learning that ETFs retard losses, but also stunt growth. It seems that many ETFs can have dozens, if not hundreds of companies involved. Its kind of like investing into a sports league: Yes, you get the Yankees and the Dodgers, but you also get the Padres and Twins (no offense to their fans). In the end, the league's winning percentage is .500.

Not a perfect analogy, because ETFs do go up over time. But it seems that while its safer and conservative, it also seems lazy.

I probably wont abandon ETFs totally, but I am looking forward to educating myself enough to buy into "The Yankees" rather than all of Major League Baseball.

Thoughts and comnents appreciated.

 

[Josho]

Ok...
Commodities are going to get out of site expensive.
Many products like cotton, sugar, coffee, and chocolate come from South America.... even beef. Mostly from Brazil but also Argentina and Chile... either way Brazilian Real control the exchange rates.

Now the Brazilian Real (pronounced "reeh ya") is currently at an all time low.
Also Ethanol plays a role in this. Because Ethanol is made from sugar cane. Maybe corn at times but mostly sugar.

Currently these things are already at all time highs while the Real is at an all time low.
Currently American Government is trying to keep the Dollar low vx other currencies.
It makes imports expensive but our exports cheaper to purchase for other countries...and most of our exports are highly renewable resources.

So...

On a personal level...grow some groceries in your garden. Don't throw out clothes...
Find second hand shops to sell them in.

On an investment level... today is a good day to invest up until the first. Month ends usually have a selloff...that's the time to buy.

Get ready to need a mortgage on that new home to purchase a set of steaks. If they can find enough rough lumber to actually frame the house.

I heard Iron demand is going up in Australia due to the problems in Brazil with covid.

 

[JohnDB]

Now why do beef prices have to go up when I am just getting excited about grilling out?

My plan I am following is suggesting purchasing more bonds and foreign investments. I really don't want to! I have investments in one Vanguard bond. The 52 week low is 113.00 and the high is 119.00. Its growth since inception is 4.18% since 2006. I understand the concept that this means its stable, but gee wiz! Hard to get excited about it' especially since its been down lately!

As for foreign investments... I do trade through Stash so any difficulty with red tape is handled. But the EFT I have has a good portion of Indian companies. They are dealing with a heck of a Covid crisis right now. Now it is a pretty global ETF so the farther east, middle east and south america are represented as well.

I got into the market with the thought that ETFs were the way to go. I am pretty conservative minded financially. But I am learning that ETFs retard losses, but also stunt growth. It seems that many ETFs can have dozens, if not hundreds of companies involved. Its kind of like investing into a sports league: Yes, you get the Yankees and the Dodgers, but you also get the Padres and Twins (no offense to their fans). In the end, the league's winning percentage is .500.

Not a perfect analogy, because ETFs do go up over time. But it seems that while its safer and conservative, it also seems lazy.

I probably wont abandon ETFs totally, but I am looking forward to educating myself enough to buy into "The Yankees" rather than all of Major League Baseball.

Thoughts and comnents appreciated.

I'm much more of an equities type person than a bond person. And ETFs aren't a bad way to go...but if you expect to have any gains you have to get triple returns on broad sector or focus on a sector. Telecom has a sector ETF if you think that Telecom is going to go up in general...and when I last picked it...it did! Researching various companies takes time. Most of us use some sort of periodical magazine or newspaper for ideas...also many of the brokerage houses will give you free research and give you sector ideas to look into. (of course they will suggest stocks but I have never and will never go with the suggested stocks...they have every incentive to lie and none to tell the truth)
Lately Investor's Business Daily has been throwing out the worst ideas. Every time they suggest a stock it immediately tanks. Their own ETF of various groups of stocks based on what they promote has been losing money.) So...why subscribe? Because they do provide great independent research into various stocks...and some of their ideas are actually good ones...but timing your purchases? That's on you to figure out. Their ideas about what and when and at what point have been failing miserably lately.
Morningstar also has research into stocks...but theirs tends to be low in valuation and picking price targets. They also favor stocks that have no glamor whatsoever...and without that glamor a stock will not rise up. Look at Teledoc stock...their ex-CEO got caught on camera being an idiot and tanked the stock...but the damage was done. Their glamor was all gone. But their comments and charts on funds and ETFs is some of the best and an industry standard.

If you like bonds...I would rather play banks and investment capital corporations...NOT a SPAC. Companies like Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, KKR and etc. Much better than a bond or a bond fund. And with 5% returns over 2 years?( You would have lost money in reality) I've made 5% in April....this past month.

If you like airplanes there is Boeing, tractors there is Cat, or whatever...All have their good points or negatives.

 

[JohnDB]

I heard Iron demand is going up in Australia due to the problems in Brazil with covid.

Thats because the Iron and steel that China, Japan, and others make out there is made with various ores mined in Brazil. They are leveling whole mountains...its kinda a weird look to see half a mountain mined and missing. But...they are having issues with people getting sick from Coronavirus. Brazilians as a people are very very sociable. You ever look someone in the eye there and you have a friend for life. BUT that has infected whole towns...even in the rural areas. (and a reason we know that herd immunity from catching the coronavirus doesn't exist)

Then...on top of this shipping containers are in short supply and huge demand. Ever Green ship stuck in the Suez Canal was on it's way to drop off a bunch of empty shipping containers in Brazil. It is still being detained/held until the damages and fines are paid ...with all of the shipping containers and cargo aboard. Coffee out of Brazil is also going higher due to drought this year. What is also going to hurt people's feelings is when Brazil's Real goes up in price vx other currencies. Expect it to get crazy then.

Also there is a shakeup at their ports with who is in control...and that isn't helping either.

 

[Josho]

Thats because the Iron and steel that China, Japan, and others make out there is made with various ores mined in Brazil. They are leveling whole mountains...its kinda a weird look to see half a mountain mined and missing. But...they are having issues with people getting sick from Coronavirus. Brazilians as a people are very very sociable. You ever look someone in the eye there and you have a friend for life. BUT that has infected whole towns...even in the rural areas. (and a reason we know that herd immunity from catching the coronavirus doesn't exist)

Then...on top of this shipping containers are in short supply and huge demand. Ever Green ship stuck in the Suez Canal was on it's way to drop off a bunch of empty shipping containers in Brazil. It is still being detained/held until the damages and fines are paid ...with all of the shipping containers and cargo aboard. Coffee out of Brazil is also going higher due to drought this year. What is also going to hurt people's feelings is when Brazil's Real goes up in price vx other currencies. Expect it to get crazy then.

Also there is a shakeup at their ports with who is in control...and that isn't helping either.

Oh no not the coffee haha, they have the best coffee in the world!

 

[JohnDB]

Today was all about Europe. So it was a very down day. Europe is in a double dip recession. The dollar spiked on account of them. Which made commodities drop and commodity based stocks drop even more so.

So I went red today and lost a lot of profits.
After a red day yesterday too...I was green but just barely. +$15.

So...I'm patiently waiting for earnings and the rest of the results of earnings reports. Pulling my money out and gonna sit out unless I see a fantastic opportunity.

 

[JohnDB]

Friday was even more Red...
The lockdown is really hurting Europe and AstraZeneca's vaccine is still having issues.

First it has side effects that were missed during trials. And it was a known side effect possibility. Something that they should have been watching for. But because their paperwork and due diligence was extremely unorganized it went missed. And now they are having issues manufacturing vaccine supplies.... again because of negligence and disorganization.
And they have every excuse in the world when the whole world needs them to perform at their utmost potential.

On the converse side...
The UK is not an EU member any longer. Mostly because of mismanagement by the EU in many areas that were important to the UK. And much of it was intentional for various reasons. Everyone warned the EU that these issues were serious and going to be catastrophic...but they went ignored.

So...now the whole world has to pay for their malfeasance. Sorry but I'm not sorry. So the new tactic is to steal the mRNA vaccines recipes. Again not happening. Sorry but not sorry.

 

[JohnDB]

Waking up this morning...Euro is flat. AUD and NZD are up. GBP is up too...

This really helps oil and gas.
CND is flat....but lumber is so hot that it doesn't matter....it does help with oil offsetting the soon to be super hot prices. We got a good supply on hand so it's going to be flat for a bit. And oil only rose modestly last night.

IBD finally noticed the commodities yesterday. Meaning that now we will have retail investors losing money. (Everything they promote seems to tank lately)

So...there are good ETFs to invest in....like CORN. Up 12% MOM for spring. Likely to continue to grow. It plays corn and fertilizer stocks and pesticides. Corn also makes Ethanol...which goes into gasoline. Sugar prices are affected by that as well.

 

[JohnDB]

So a bloodbath for the market yesterday after the Euro fell hard against the Dollar which rose sharply. In spite of the selloff... commodity based stocks did well. Mostly because their supply chain interruptions are easier to overcome and fewer in number.

So since I play commodity based stocks I did just fine yesterday. Today the market is going up...bouncing is more like it. That's not to say that it's very good to be extremely cautious about choosing good stocks. Supply chain interruptions are going to really be important in the coming months.
Cars, robotics, and equipment are all going to be affected heavily. (Huge amount of various parts and complicated supply chains)
Energy stocks are likely to go up as aircraft and shipping resume normal levels. People are also enjoying the daily commute back to the office. (But complaining the whole time).
Inventories of petroleum are rather low...so short term supplies causing outages and price spiking are to be expected. (Again exacerbating supply chain interruptions)
Then there's that whole pipeline thing in the Dakota's. Which is likely an issue over money moreso than anything else. (It's the "no digging" sign) The company owning the pipeline can move it if needed...but it's going to cost hundreds of millions. But why? They had approval and leases. So I see this not changing regardless of the crowd sentiment... especially if outages and short supplies are coming. The larger crowd demanding oil will win.

People needing to drive to work can't be deprived of a vehicle... even if you give them an electric one because they have no place to plug it in and the net result is the same.



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