Who do you think will win Trump or Biden or Kanye?

[Yehren]

It's Trump's Booming Economy

US economy shrinks at fastest rate since 2008
29 April 2020
The US economy suffered its most severe contraction in more than a decade in the first quarter of the year, as the country introduced lockdowns to slow the spread of coronavirus.

The world's largest economy sank at an annual rate of 4.8%, according to official figures released on Wednesday.
US economy shrinks at fastest rate since 2008

Trump's failure to act promptly on the COVID-19 pandemic was disastrous for the United States economy. And Americans know it:

Voters have given President Donald Trump his worst marks yet for how he’s handled the coronavirus pandemic.

A new Morning Consult poll found net approval for Trump’s COVID-19 response — the share who approve minus the share who disapprove — is 8 percentage points underwater, with 51 percent disapproving and 43 percent approving.

The April 24-26 survey, conducted as a backlash emerged over the president’s televised remarks about using disinfectant or sunlight inside the human body to combat the disease, marked Trump’s worst showing since tracking began at the end of February. His net approval was down 22 points since a high point in a March 17-20 poll, when voters’ level of concern about coronavirus surged amid an apparent “rally around the flag” effect, driven by increased backing from Democrats and independents. (Both polls had a 2-point margin of error.)

In the most recent poll, 41 percent of voters “strongly” disapprove of Trump’s coronavirus response, up 13 points since that mid-March survey, while the share who strongly approve dropped 7 points to 23 percent during that time. The share who “somewhat” approve and disapprove hardly changed.
Net Approval of Trump’s Coronavirus Response Reaches New Low - Morning Consult

 

[Enoch111]

Normally, when GDP grows rapidly for eight years in a row, it's considered a good thing.

How do we know that your chart is presenting the facts? Here is what the article I quoted says: "There's more. The rate of GDP growth was decelerating in Obama's last year. It went from 2.3% in Q2, to 1.9% in Q3 to 1.8% in Q4 of 2016. Under Trump, GDP growth has averaged 2.9%. It was 4.2% last quarter and might be higher in the current one."

 

[Yehren]

How do we know that your chart is presenting the facts?

It uses commerce dept. data. I realize it's not what you'd like it to be, but you're just going to have to find a way to accommodate the reality. Sorry. And of course, the economy under Trump took a record fall.

And as you now realize, Trump's failure to handle the COVID-19 pandemic has devastated the U.S. economy. What do you expect from a man who blew his huge inheritance on one business bankruptcy after another? He's in way over his head.

 

[Giuliano]

Voter registeration is soaring in some places where Democrats are encouraging people to vote. The RNC may be too busy trying to find another city for its convention to think about registering new voters.

George Floyd protests created a surge in voter registrations, groups say

Voter registrations, volunteer activity and donations for groups linked to Democratic causes are surging in the midst of protests following the death of George Floyd, according to voting advocacy groups.

This surge in registrations could end up being one of the factors that helps tip the election between apparent Democratic nominee Joe Biden and President Donald Trump. The efforts are by groups including Latino voter registration organizations, Rock the Vote and one co-chaired by former first lady Michelle Obama.

Latino voter registration groups in recent weeks have noticed an uptick in their communities mobilization to vote, particularly from younger voters. The leaders of these organizations said that many are registering after nationwide outrage directed at police brutality and the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, which has left over 100,000 dead and tens of millions jobless in the United States. Unemployment rates for Hispanic and black workers remained high at 17.6% and 16.8%, respectively, even after the nation added 2.5 million jobs last month.

 

[Giuliano]

I see Trump is visiting Michigan where Biden's current lead is 5.5%. The factory has a policy requiring masks but said they'd let the people from the White House do whatever they wanted. Trump again did not wear a mask.

That visit to Michigan seems to have been a waste of time and money. A new poll from Michigan came out today and Biden has an even bigger lead.

Joe Biden has doubled his lead over Donald Trump in Michigan, poll says

Former Vice President Joe Biden has increased his lead over President Donald Trump to 12 percentage points in Michigan, where voters are unhappy with Trump's response to the coronavirus pandemic, according to a new poll.

Biden, the presumed Democratic nominee, leads Republican Trump in Michigan 53-41, according to a poll conducted by EPIC-MRA of Lansing between May 30 and last Wednesday.

That brings RCP's average of the latest polls to: Biden 50%, Trump 42.7%. No single poll is perfect. My own guess is that EPIC-MRA poll is off by a point or two. Biden's actual lead could be around 51%. Trump's could be around 43%.

What is interesting is that Biden is past the 50% mark. That is more important than the size of the lead. Someone could be ahead by 40% to 20%, but that leaves 20% undecided; and it's hard to say which way most of them will go. If Biden's lead is 51% to Trump's 43%, that leaves only 6% undecided; and even if Trump got them all, he'd still lose 51 to 49. Trump would need a miracle to swing Michigan in his favor.

It reminds me of the 2004 election and how George W. Bush's steel tariffs affected jobs in Michigan. Bush said he wouldn't fold to international pressure; but when the polls showed him behind Michigan, he changed his mind. He still lost Michigan but won enough votes elsewhere to win the election. Trump doesn't seem to have enough votes elsewhere. My spreadsheet has the electoral count: Biden 331, Trump 200.

North Carolina, considered a swing state since results are so close, could still usually be counted on to go Republican in presidential elections. The latest poll there shows Trump's lead getting smaller. (The RCP average is now Trump up by 0.3% with the two latest polls having Biden ahead.) Trump's threat to move the Republican convention because the Democratic governor could not guarantee thousands of people could be in one place -- and without masks -- was foolish if you ask me. Moving it would annoy lots of people expecting to have jobs and additional income from the convention: Hotel workers, restaurant workers, taxi drivers, etc. I thought holding the convention there was a smart idea since it would probably make more people likely to vote Republican. It would also be a logistical nightmare to try to coordinate a convention in some other city. I can't see it being moved, even if Trump insists on it. His campaign staff might even resign over it since it would almost guarantee Biden capture North Carolina's 15 electoral votes.

Meanwhile the Republicans are having problems in some states finding people who want to be delegates! Yes, there are some Republicans who know coronavirus can be spread in large crowds! Many delegates are older people, and they know too that the virus affects them more than it does younger folks. They also know the virus can be spread by people not wearing masks.

Republicans scramble to find RNC delegates after Trump bails on North Carolina: report

On Saturday, The New York Times reported that Republicans are struggling to find delegates to attend the GOP convention.

"Adding to the uncertainty surrounding the convention is the trepidation delegates are feeling about attending a crowded gathering," reported Annie Karni and Maggie Haberman. "Already, states like Indiana are having difficulty filling both their delegate and alternate spots. Many convention delegates are over 60 and therefore more vulnerable to the virus."

"Indiana, Vice President Mike Pence's home state, has struggled to fill its slots with the party donors and activists who typically compete for the highly coveted positions to represent the state on the convention floor," the report continued.

This struggle comes as Republicans seek to move most aspects of the convention out of Charlotte, North Carolina.

"On a phone call with Mr. Cooper on May 29, Mr. Trump said he would not deliver a speech in front of a half-empty arena and that he wanted a quick answer on whether the state would accommodate him, according to two people familiar with the call," said the report. "Mr. Trump asked Mr. Cooper what he should do; the governor said they should work to find a way to scale the convention back, one of the people said."

 

[Giuliano]

Never underestimate the democrat ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. But this one might take everything they have.

The worst thing from a republican standpoint is that Texas is in play; Trump is up abut 2% according to the RCP summary of polls. He's going to have to put some time and money into a state that should have been an easy win.

Trump will never accept losing, no matter how badly he loses. The big deal is that if it's close, he might try to overturn the election to stay on.

The Republican Party seems to be having a meltdown in Texas. Saner minds within the Republican Party are scrambling to contain the potential damage.

Furor in Texas GOP after leaders post racist memes that suggest Floyd’s death is a hoax

One Facebook post falsely claimed that the killing of George Floyd in police custody last month was a “staged event,” meant to rile up opposition to President Trump. Another showed a quote from Martin Luther King Jr. next to a banana — an established racist trope.

And a third claimed that George Soros, the liberal billionaire, paid “white cops to murder black people” and “black people to riot because race wars keep the sheep in line.”

All of these posts were shared in recent days by Republican county leaders in Texas, some of whom are now facing calls to resign from top officials within their own party, including Sens. Ted Cruz and John Cornyn and Gov. Greg Abbott, who called the posts “disgusting,” the Texas Tribune reported.

One of my favorite Republicans also weighed in on it.

“I have said it before and I will say it again now: the GOP must not tolerate racism. Of any kind. At any time,” George P. Bush, the state’s land commissioner and a rising star in the party, wrote on Twitter late Thursday. “I urge them to do the honorable thing and step aside now.”

I am convinced the future of the Republican Party, if it is going to have a future, will be to have leaders like George P. Bush who most certainly is not a racist. I do not know if these racist comments from Republican county leaders will affect the presidential race; but I'm sure they are not helping the Republican Party in Texas. They could motivate more people to register and vote in November.

 

[Giuliano]

John Bolton's book should be out sometime this month.

Bolton plans June release for book about time in White House

John Bolton is forging ahead with plans to publish a memoir about his time in President Donald Trump's White House and is in negotiations with network television channels to promote the book, according to people familiar with the talks.

Bolton, who served as national security adviser from April 2018 to September 2019, plans to publish "The Room Where It Happened: A White House Memoir" on June 23, after embarking on a media tour to promote the book the weekend before, according to people with knowledge of the negotiations who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private conversations.

The White House has not formally signed off on the book, and officials in the Trump administration have delayed it for months due to a classification review process led by the National Security Council.
The president has said Bolton should not publish the book until after the election and has called him a "traitor" in private for writing a negative tell-all book, The Washington Post has previously reported.

Bolton is planning to publish even if the White House does not give publication approval, people familiar with his thinking say, and believes he has removed all classified material.

 

[Giuliano]

Some things are so hard to figure. Why is Trump visiting Oklahoma? He can't be afraid of losing that state. It's so overwhelmingly Republican, no one has done a poll there yet -- at least I haven't run across one. He won the state by 36.4% in 2016. My best guess he wants to make he's not embarrrassed by a half full arena; and you can be sure the people in Oklahoma will turn out for him. Is it wise?

Trump to resume campaign rallies with June 19 event in Tulsa

The president made the announcement at a roundtable with African American leaders at the White House, hailing the “great job” that Oklahoma has done combating coronavirus. As of Tuesday, Oklahoma had recorded 353 coronavirus deaths and 7,363 positive cases.

The Tulsa rally next week will be held on Juneteenth, a national commemoration of the end of slavery in the U.S.

March 2 in Charlotte, N.C. For the past three months, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has recommended against large gatherings of people, hindering the Trump campaign’s desire to hold events filled with dedicated supporters of the president.

Trump doesn't need black voters in Oklahoma. Appealing to them in other states would make a little more sense. But it's very, very strange that Trump complimented Oklahoma for the "great job" they have done handling the coronavirus. Does he know or care that the county Tulsa is in has had a sharp rise in its number of cases?

Trump To Start Campaign Rallies On Juneteenth In Tulsa, Oklahoma, Where Coronavirus Cases Are Spiking

Amid a new wave of coronavirus cases in many states and protests against police brutality, President Trump announced Wednesday that he will resume his campaign rallies on June 19 in Tulsa, Oklahoma, located in a county that's seeing coronavirus infections spiking dramatically.

What is he thinking of? If there is a huge rally there with a few infected people, it could spread across the state to areas where more progress has been made. I can't see people practicing social distancing or wearing facemasks. Oh well, back to the story from Forbes.

Trump rallies are also planned in Florida, Texas, Arizona and North Carolina; the campaign has yet to detail safety procedures.

These rallies make more sense, but they also reveal how Trump has become weaker in states he won in 2016. He won Texas by 9% but now (on average) leads Biden by 2.2% with some polls tied. He won Florida by 1.2% and now trails Biden by 3.4%. Arizona looks set to go Democratic. Trump won there in 2016 by 3.5% and is now behind Biden by 3.4%. He may hang onto North Carolina but he can't afford any loss of support. He won in 2016 by 3.7% but now is ahead by a whisker, 0.3%. I hope his rallies are going to be held outdoors. If people go to them and get sick, I think that could make people less likely to vote for him. Please tell me the rally in Oklahoma will be outdoors with lots of fresh air.

 

[Yehren]

I think it's for his own mental health. If he can pack a venue with his followers screaming his name, he will feel better about his continuing decline in approval by most Americans.

He needs to feel loved. And there isn't much of that going out to him right now.

 

[Giuliano]

I think it's for his own mental health. If he can pack a venue with his followers screaming his name, he will feel better about his continuing decline in approval by most Americans.

He needs to feel loved. And there isn't much of that going out to him right now.

And if the polls say something else, he can tell himself they're rigged. He just threatened to sue over a poll. Is he delusional? I'd say so, and it looks as if the flatterers around him encourage his delusions.

Trump campaign demands CNN apologize for poll that shows Biden leading - CNNPolitics

President Donald Trump's campaign is demanding CNN retract and apologize for a recent poll that showed him well behind presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.

The demand, coming in the form of a cease and desist letter to CNN President Jeff Zucker that contained numerous incorrect and misleading claims, was immediately rejected by the network.

"We stand by our poll," said Matt Dornic, a CNN spokesman.

The CNN poll conducted by SSRS and released on Monday shows Trump trailing the former vice president by 14 points, 55%-41%, among registered voters. It also finds the President's approval rating at 38% -- his worst mark since January 2019, and roughly on par with approval ratings for one-term Presidents Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush at this point in their reelection years -- and his disapproval rating at 57%.

The CNN poll does look look out of kilter with other polls; but I don't know what the margin of error is. He should be more alarmed more by the right-leaning Rasmussen poll that gives his disapproval rate at 56%. Their prior poll had it at 50%.

 

[Giuliano]

Wow, to get tickets to the event in Oklahoma, you have to sign a paper saying you agree not to sue if you catch the coronavirus.

Trump's Tulsa campaign rally sign-up page includes coronavirus liability disclaimer

The sign-up page for tickets to President Donald Trump's campaign rally in Tulsa next week includes something that hasn't appeared ahead of previous rallies: a disclaimer noting that attendees "voluntarily assume all risks related to exposure to COVID-19" and agree not to hold the campaign or venue liable should they get sick.

Trump's reelection campaign announced Thursday that the president's next "Make America Great Again" rally will be held June 19 at the BOK Center.

The rally comes as the United States has surpassed 2 million confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus, with more than 112,000 people dead. More than a dozen states are now tallying record-high new infections; Oklahoma is not among them, although Tulsa County has reported a gradual uptick of new cases since the beginning of June, according to health department data compiled by The Washington Post.

At the bottom of the registration page for tickets to the upcoming Trump campaign rally is a disclaimer notifying attendees that "by clicking register below, you are acknowledging that an inherent risk of exposure to COVID-19 exists in any public place where people are present."

"By attending the Rally, you and any guests voluntarily assume all risks related to exposure to COVID-19 and agree not to hold Donald J. Trump for President, Inc.; BOK Center; ASM Global; or any of their affiliates, directors, officers, employees, agents, contractors, or volunteers liable for any illness or injury," the notice states.

So if someone goes and gets the virus and spreads it to other people, could they sue? I think they could.

 

[Yehren]

Yes, any other people to whom the people signing the waiver might infect, could sue. The trick would be in showing that an attendee infected someone else.

 

[Yehren]

The CNN poll does look look out of kilter with other polls; but I don't know what the margin of error is. He should be more alarmed more by the right-leaning Rasmussen poll that gives his disapproval rate at 56%. Their prior poll had it at 50%.

It's the poll with the largest margin, but all polls have shown that the margin has increased substantially in the last week or so.

 

[Giuliano]

It's the poll with the largest margin, but all polls have shown that the margin has increased substantially in the last week or so.

Yes, that's right I think.

I just checked the other campaign stops Trump has scheduled. From what I could see, all except one were in states where the number of cases is rising. Texas was the exception although they have problems in a few pockets.

Yes, any other people to whom the people signing the waiver might infect, could sue. The trick would be in showing that an attendee infected someone else.

In most cases, "preponderance of the evidence" is enough.

Suppose someone who didn't know he had it at the time attended the rally and infected twenty people. A few days later, he gets diagnosed. Then in a week or so, new cases pop up in several towns almost simultaneously, and those cases spread it in throughout their towns. Next complicate it and suppose an unrelated carrier spread it in another town. You could link 20 out of the 21 outbreaks back to the rally.

 

[Yehren]

If so, I would think the Trump campaign and Trump personally would be liable, given the warnings of his own epidemiologists, and the recent surge in infections after "opening up."

 

[Giuliano]

If so, I would think the Trump campaign and Trump personally would be liable, given the warnings of his own epidemiologists, and the recent surge in infections after "opening up."

We can be sure however that the campaign would pay any damages since that's not Trump's money. I don't know if any criminal charges -- perhaps reckless endangerment -- would apply. It could be really serious if a death was judged attributable to a campaign event.

 

[Giuliano]

I just found a poll for the Senate race from Iowa. Enst is behind the Democrat by 3% in a poll by the Des Moines Register. They will be releasing the other parts of its poll later.

Election 2020: Iowa Poll on November races, issues out this weekend

Starting this weekend, results will be released from a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll that tests Iowa adults' opinions about U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst and her 2020 race, President Donald Trump, Gov. Kim Reynolds and other public officials.

Findings from the newest Iowa Poll will include likely voters' opinions on Ernst and her race against Democrat Theresa Greenfield as well as Trump's race against Democrat and former Vice President Joe Biden.

The first part of the poll, about Iowa's U.S. Senate race, will be released on DesMoinesRegister.com at 6 p.m. Saturday and published in the Des Moines Sunday Register. Other parts of the poll will be released in the coming days, both online and in print.


We haven't seen a poll recently on the Trump-Biden match; but the latest ones have been:

January New York Times/SiennaTrump+2
March Des Moines Register Trump +10
May PPP Trump +2

I think maybe Trump may want to visit Iowa. . . .

 

[aspen]

Biden is going to win.
Trump is going to refuse to accept the results

unfortunately for Trump, he was not only a monumental failure as President, he was an equally crappy authoritarian. As most people understand, even average banana republic despots know the military butters their bread, however, Trump never was a student of history (or any other subject) and decided to piss off the military....which was his only chance of retaining power and avoiding Leavenworth...

 

[Josho]

Biden is going to win.
Trump is going to refuse to accept the results

unfortunately for Trump, he was not only a monumental failure as President, he was an equally crappy authoritarian; most people understand that even average banana republic despots know the military butters their bread, but Trump never was a student of history (or any subject) and decided to piss off the military....which was his only chance of retaining power and avoiding Leavenworth...

Well a lot of Christian prophets are saying Trump will win, I haven't heard of one yet prophesy Biden would win.

Hehe so if Trump won a 2nd term what would you do?

 

[aspen]

Well a lot of Christian prophets are saying Trump will win, I haven't heard of one yet prophesy Biden would win.

Hehe so if Trump won a 2nd term what would you do?

I would absolutely quit following American politics for good. i would also attempt moving overseas. i am serious.

Honestly, America has let me down. This country and I do not relate. I care about free, quality education, caring for the poor, universal healthcare, and a vibrant middle class through a redistribution of wealth. Apparently, i am a fish out of water