Coronavirus spreading

[Yehren]

More likely to die from falling in your bathroom.

Actually, if you check the National Safety Council's Accident Facts, you'll find that the death rate from falling is much less than 1%.

In fact, for every 100,000 people exposed to falling,we see about 61 deaths.
Important Facts about Falls | Home and Recreational Safety | CDC Injury Center

Which is a mortality rate of about... um... 0.061‬%, which is about 1/20th the mortality rate for people who have been infected with Covid-19.

We need to shut down taking showers and bathing!

Which would be as dumb as sealing up your house and refusing to leave it for any reason, to protect yourself from the virus. Instead, take some reasonable precautions. For some of my clients, I had to be certified as a CSP, so I'm familiar with risk assessment and management. It's normal for people to react emotionally to risk, underestimating some of it, and wildly overestimating others.

But it's not the smart way to handle things.

 

[Yehren]

Yeah the flu kills too. Don't see people shutting down the country over the flu.

It's a worth looking at. The death rate from influenza is about 0.1%. Or less than a tenth of the death rate from Covid-19. Still, I get a flu shot, and try to avoid contamination anyway. It's just that this new virus is both more infectious and more deadly than the flu virus we've been seeing in the last 100 years.

Again, it's a matter of odds and how much risk you want to take.

 

[Yehren]

And it is not nearly as bad as people are freaking out.

It's over ten times as deadly as influenza normally is, and much more infectious. Don't freak out; just take reasonable precautions.

 

[Renniks]

Actually, if you check the National Safety Council's Accident Facts, you'll find that the death rate from falling is much less than 1%.

How many people die from falls every year? You are way more likely to die from a fall then to contact the virus and die from it.

" one in four Americans aged 65+ falls each year. Every 11 seconds, an older adult is treated in the emergency room for a fall; every 19 minutes, an older adult dies from a fall. Falls are the leading cause of fatal injury and the most common cause of nonfatal trauma-related hospital admissions among older adults.

National Council on Aging › news

I was off on the 11 seconds, it's not a fatality every 11 seconds, but a fall.

 

[Yehren]

How many people die from falls every year?

About .061% of them. This is how we know that the Covid-19 virus is about 20 times as dangerous as falls (which are a major cause of death in the United States. Do you now see why we should be working to limit the spread of the virus? If it continues to spread exponentially we're looking at half a million deaths, conservatively.

You are way more likely to die from a fall then to contact the virus and die from it.

However, if you contact the virus, you are 20 times as likely to die from it as you are to die from falling. Do you see now, why we should be working hard to limit the spread of the virus?

 

[Yehren]

Every 11 seconds, an older adult is treated in the emergency room for a fall; every 19 minutes, an older adult dies from a fall.

Check here:
United States Coronavirus: 26,111 Cases and 324 Deaths - Worldometer

Check back over a few hours time. The last few hours COVID-19 deaths beat that number.

 

[Renniks]

I

However, if you contact the virus, you are 20 times as likely to die from it as you are to die from falling. Do you see now, why we should be working hard to limit the spread of the virus?

I never said we should not limit the spread.

 

[Yehren]

I

I never said we should not limit the spread.

Do you see why we should all be very concerned? If this goes it has so far, we're talking hundreds of thousands of people dying.

 

[Yehren]

15k cases is hardly out of control.

Now, there's over 26,000 cases in the United States. We're in the exponential part of the curve.
United States Coronavirus: 26,111 Cases and 324 Deaths - Worldometer

 

[Enoch111]

Now, there's over 26,000 cases in the United States. We're in the exponential part of the curve.

"There have been 24,148 confirmed cases of coronavirus and 285 deaths in the United States as of Saturday, March 21, at 5:13 p.m., according to Johns Hopkins University."
INTERACTIVE: This Map Shows How Many Have Died From Coronavirus In Each US State

Did you notice the exaggeration in what you quote? And your last statement is pure baloney.

And of these 11, 645 are from New York state. That is 48.22% of the total or almost half the confirmed cases are from New York State (run by a Communist governor who has bad-mouthed Trump all along).

Now here is what the media won't tell you:

There have been ZERO DEATHS in the following states:
1. North Carolina
2. Utah
3. Alabama
4. Iowa
5. Rhode Island
6. Maine
7. New Hampshire
8. New Mexico
9. Delaware
10.Hawaii
11. Nebraska
12. Idaho
13. North Dakota
14. Wyoming
15. Montana
16. Alaska
17. West Virgina
18. Arkansas

Also, there have been FOUR OR LESS DEATHS in the following states:
1. Michigan
2. Massachusetts
3. Pennsylvania
4. Colorado
5. Tennessee
6. Ohio
7. Connecticut
8. Maryland
9. Nevada
10. Virginia
11. Mississippi
12. Minnesota
13. Indiana
14. South Carolina
15. Indiana
16. Oregon
17. Arizona
18. Washington, D.C. (not a state)
19. Missouri
20. Kentucky
21. Oklahoma
22. Kansas
23. Vermont
24. South Dakota

So 84% of the USA has had four or less deaths, with 36% at ZERO deaths. So all this talk about millions of deaths is not only PURE BALONEY but FEAR-MONGERING by the enemies of America.

 

[Renniks]

Do you see why we should all be very concerned? If this goes it has so far, we're talking hundreds of millions of people dying.

That I don't see. Hundreds of millions? When the densely populated epicenters have had only thousands at most?

 

[Yehren]

In the months ahead, we may well see persistent partisan splits on whether Americans approve of how the president is handling the crisis. But on the more fundamental question of how they perceive the threat in their personal lives, Democrats and Republicans are now moving in the same direction.


Both say they are growing more concerned about an outbreak in their local areas, according to a daily tracking poll by Civiqs. Since the stock market crash on March 9, the share of Americans of both parties who said they were “extremely concerned” about an outbreak has increased nearly every day.


Partisan differences are eroding in part because the messages coming from President Trump, Fox News hosts and other Republican party leaders increasingly — if inconsistently — resemble the messages Democrats are hearing from their preferred news sources and leaders. Even some policy responses, like sending Americans money to weather the crisis, have received bipartisan support.


“At some point, if everybody is saying the same thing,” said Ryan Enos, a political scientist at Harvard, “there’s reason to believe that that party gap should go away.”
American Partisanship May Find Its Limits in Coronavirus

 

[Yehren]

That I don't see. Hundreds of millions? When the densely populated epicenters have had only thousands at most?

It's pretty simple; if people don't take it seriously, and follow recommendations, we'll see the exponential spread of the disease to continue. The conservative estimate is that 30 percent of Americans will be infected. If 30 percent of the population is infected, as it will be without precautions, we'll see that.

30% of 327,000,000 is 98,000,000. And 1.2% of that is 176,000 dead. And remember, that the numbers so far are more about a lack of testing than about how many are actually infected.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, speaking at a congressional hearing on Thursday, said predictions based on models should be treated with caution. “All models are as good as the assumptions that you put into the model,” he said, responding to a question from Representative Rashida Tlaib about an estimate from the attending physician of Congress that the United States could have 70 million to 150 million coronavirus cases.

What will determine the ultimate number, he said, “will be how you respond to it with containment and mitigation.”
Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths

I see some hope in the fact that Trump and his followers are becoming more and more realistic about this pandemic and the potential it has to kill so many of us. That might, in the end, save many, many lives.

Let us pray that it will be so.

 

[Renniks]

30% of 327,000,000 is 98,000,000. And 1.2% of that is 176,000 dead. And remember, that the numbers so far are more about a lack of testing than about how many are actually infected.

You have gone from hundreds of millions to thousands. You need to be consistent.

 

[Yehren]

You have gone from hundreds of millions to thousands. You need to be consistent.

No. Hundreds of millions would be more like the worldwide under worst scenario. (Barbarian checks) Ah, I see. I wrote "millions" instead of thousands in one post. I'll fix it. The estimate I showed you first was about 480,000 dead (from a Trump administration epidemiologist). That's hundreds of thousands, not hundreds of millions. There are maybe 350,000,000 people living in the U.S. at this time. Using the current data for projections, a low figure is 176,000 dead.

United States
Coronavirus Cases:

27,630

Deaths:

349

Continuing to show slightly more then 1.2% fatality rate.


United States Coronavirus: 29,211 Cases and 349 Deaths - Worldometer

If the curve went flat tomorrow, we'd have 3,000 deaths in two months. And it's not going to go flat tomorrow.

 

[Yehren]

The good news is that the republicans are beginning to realize this is a major disaster in the making, and the trend is for more and more of them showing concern.

American Partisanship May Find Its Limits in Coronavirus

Reality is a harsh teacher, but an effective one.

 

[Yehren]

Now, there's over 26,000 cases in the United States. We're in the exponential part of the curve.

And your last statement is pure baloney.

Perhaps you don't know what "exponential" means?

We can still flatten out that curve to some degree, and any flattening will save lives. It's now clear that if we hadn't dismantled our pandemic crisis team, it would have saved many more lives.

 

[Yehren]

WASHINGTON—In May 2018, President Donald Trump’s biodefense preparedness adviser warned that a flu pandemic was the country’s No. 1 health security threat, and the U.S. was not prepared.

“We know that it cannot be stopped at the border,” Luciana Borio, director of medical and biodefense preparedness at the National Security Council, said at a symposium that day.

Borio left the Trump administration in 2019. Other high-level global health experts headed for the exits even earlier, after the White House dismantled the National Security Council’s global health security office.

The demise of that elite team is now under scrutiny as the Trump administration struggles to respond to the coronavirus pandemic.

Trump bristled when asked about his decision to disband the office at a news conference in the Rose Garden on Friday.

“I just think it's a nasty question,” the president responded. “And when you say ‘me,' I didn't do it. ... I don't know anything about it.”
Coronavirus: Did Trump's decision to nix pandemic team hinder response

"Nasty", meaning "bringing up something I messed up on."

During the announcement on Friday afternoon that he would be declaring a national emergency, Trump again assigned blame to others.

"No, I don't take responsibility at all," he said about the delays. "Because we were given a set of circumstances."
Trump condemns CDC for lack of coronavirus testing, blames Obama

 

[Yehren]

Now here is what the media won't tell you:

There have been ZERO DEATHS in the following states:
1. North Carolina
2. Utah
3. Alabama
4. Iowa
5. Rhode Island
6. Maine
7. New Hampshire
8. New Mexico
9. Delaware
10.Hawaii
11. Nebraska
12. Idaho
13. North Dakota
14. Wyoming
15. Montana
16. Alaska
17. West Virgina
18. Arkansas

What happened to "24?" Living in areas with low populations helps, but we're still in the exponential phase; the pandemic is gathering momentum.

Also, there have been FOUR OR LESS DEATHS in the following states:
1. Michigan (8)
2. Massachusetts
3. Pennsylvania
4. Colorado (6)
5. Tennessee
6. Ohio
7. Connecticut (5)
8. Maryland
9. Nevada
10. Virginia
11. Mississippi
12. Minnesota
13. Indiana
14. South Carolina
15. Indiana
16. Oregon
17. Arizona
18. Washington, D.C. (not a state)
19. Missouri
20. Kentucky
21. Oklahoma
22. Kansas
23. Vermont
24. South Dakota

 

[tooldtocare]

It's now clear that if we hadn't dismantled our pandemic crisis team, it would have saved many more lives.

And we all know who was responsible for that, but incase you don't know, I am sure someone here can tell you.
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