If you think that David was angry at the LORD when he killed Uzzah and wish to wager on it,

[TonyChanYT]

I am taking wagers here. This OP is NOT about whether David was angry at the LORD when he killed Uzzah. I'm assuming you think he was. This post focuses on wagering on what you believe.

Let proposition P1 = David was angry at the LORD when he killed Uzzah.
P2 = David was angry but not at the LORD.

Between 0 and 10, how much weight do you put on each of the above propositions? The stronger your belief in a proposition, the higher the weight. Your weighting scheme will determine the betting odds.

This is not a lotto or gambling bet. It is a wager to mathematically and scientifically measure the strength of your belief. Put money where your mouth is. If you are interested in mathematically finding out the strength of your belief, then tell me those two weights. See Subjective (Bayesian) Probability.

 

[quietthinker]

I see you're a gambler!

 

[O'Darby]

I don't think I've ever been on a forum where someone, usually an atheist, didn't think he understood Bayes' Theorem. I know enough to know it's extremely complicated and most who purport to understand it do not. It's not clear to me what you think you are going to derive from asking forum participants the strength of their views on your two propositions, but I'll play along:

P1 = 9
P2 = 2

My highest confidence would be in P3 = David was angry at the whole situation, but mostly at what the Lord had done to Uzzah.

Obviously, we can then derive what a rational wager on my part would be, but this isn't really a Bayesian analysis. Moreover, we don't have a correct answer by which to determine whether my wager was successful, unless you think adding up Bible commentaries will yield a correct answer. The weights other people subjectively assign are not going to affect my weights or the rationality of my wager.

 

[Lambano]

I don't think I've ever been on a forum where someone, usually an atheist, didn't think he understood Bayes' Theorem. I know enough to know it's extremely complicated and most who purport to understand it do not. It's not clear to me what you think you are going to derive from asking forum participants the strength of their views on your two propositions, but I'll play along:

P1 = 9
P2 = 2

My highest confidence would be in P3 = David was angry at the whole situation, but mostly at what the Lord had done to Uzzah.

Obviously, we can then derive what a rational wager on my part would be, but this isn't really a Bayesian analysis. Moreover, we don't have a correct answer by which to determine whether my wager was successful, unless you think adding up Bible commentaries will yield a correct answer. The weights other people subjectively assign are not going to affect my weights or the rationality of my wager.

Wait a minute. P1 is actually two propositions, P1a (David was angry) & P1b (David was angry at God). P2 is thus two propositions, (P1a)&(-P1b). If P1a is assumed to be true, then P2 = (1-P1). So, it is illogical to have P1 = 9 and P2 = 2 on a scale of 0 to 10, because when normalized to a scale of 1, P1 = 0.9 and P2 = both 0.1 and 0.2, which is a contradiction.

To confirm who wins the wager, we have to wait until The World To Come is realized and then ask David himself. This involves several more propositions:

P3: Tony makes it to heaven
P4: Lambano makes it to heaven
P5: David made it to heaven (we'll assume the probability of P5 = 1)
P6: David is willing to tell us what he was angry about

I won't speculate about the probability of P3, but I know at least one person on this board who is convinced that the probability of P4 approaches 0.

Since Tony is an honest bookie, if he thinks the probability of P2 = (1-P1) = 75%, he might offer odds of P1 = P2/(1-P2) = 3:1. But what he really wants to do is set the betting line so that he gets equal action on both sides, and make his profit off the 5% vigorish on the winners.

 

[TonyChanYT]

P1 is actually two propositions

What is a proposition?

 

[TonyChanYT]

P1 = 9
P2 = 2

After the resurrection, you will put out 9 units of your heavenly treasure to a money pool. I will put out 2 units. We will ask David which proposition is closer to the truth. Winner takes all. Agree?

 

[Lambano]

What is a proposition?

"Your place or mine?" would be an example of a proposition.

 

[TonyChanYT]

"Your place or mine?" would be an example of a proposition.

No.