You are a contestant on a game show. There are three curtains. Behind one of the curtains is a new car. You are asked to choose one of the curtains. Lets say that you choose curtain #1. The host of the show, who knows where the car is located so as not to end the game prematurely, opens curtain #3 and there is no car behind it. The host now gives you a choice. You can stay with curtain #1 or you can change your choice to curtain #2. The question now is: would it be to your advantage to stay with curtain #1, or would it be to your advantage to change to curtain #2 or would there be no advantage either way?
Three Curtains
- Thread starter rstrats
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glad you mentioned it I thought this was another off the wall piece of theology.
hmmm maybe that's why you have a game tread LOL.
BTW whats the object and how is it played?
hmmm maybe that's why you have a game tread LOL.
BTW whats the object and how is it played?
Hey Rex!
Just read the O/P.... ^_^ I have a theory about this...It's a little unconventional but it seems quite logical to me
Just read the O/P.... ^_^ I have a theory about this...It's a little unconventional but it seems quite logical to me
the way I see it is it's a basic math question you now have a 50-50 chance of guessing correctly.
so I see no advantage in changing from the first choice.
unless the HS has revealed to you where the NEW CAR IS LOCATED LOL
but wait there's more, If you win we will include an all expense paid vacation to carnal ville where all that matters is how many toys you own before you die.
I think Joyce Meyers and Joel Olsteen would like this game LOL
This has been a broadcast from the syndicated sarcastic network
so I see no advantage in changing from the first choice.
unless the HS has revealed to you where the NEW CAR IS LOCATED LOL
but wait there's more, If you win we will include an all expense paid vacation to carnal ville where all that matters is how many toys you own before you die.
I think Joyce Meyers and Joel Olsteen would like this game LOL
This has been a broadcast from the syndicated sarcastic network
Well I may have to change channels on that network Rex because it sure ain't blessing anyone :huh: Anyway - I think it definitely is a math problem but I am terrible at math. So I will stick to 1 for a number of highly illogical reasons. ^_^
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Please do... It will be more fun to have you explain before before telling you if your right or wrongAngelina said:Ooooo....well am I right LF???? :huh: should I give you my theoretical view on this? ^_^
I have edited my post...and I'm sure you know why LF!lforrest said:Please do... It will be more fun to have you explain before before telling you if your right or wrong
Bless ya!
a quick Google search shows rstrats has played the game before and never resolved the problem.
but here is a comment from a site
http://www.patheos.com/blogs/crossexamined/2013/01/the-monty-hall-problem-and-how-it-undercuts-christianity/
The Perplexing Monty Hall Problem and How It Undercuts Christianity
January 18, 2013 By Bob Seidensticker 112 Comments
In keeping with the Bayes Theorem dose of probability theory last week, here’s a very approachable probability problem.
I first came across the fascinating Monty Hall Problem 20 years ago:
Suppose
you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors:
Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say
No. 1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another
door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, “Do you want to
pick door No. 2?”
Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?
Most people think that it doesn’t matter and that there’s no benefit to switching. They’re wrong, but more on that in a moment.
Humans
have a hard time with probability problems like this one. You’d think
that we’d be fairly comfortable with basic probability, but apparently
not.
Here’s another popular probability problem: how many people
must you have in a group before it becomes more likely than not that any
two of them have the same birthday?
The surprising answer is 23.
In other words, imagine two football teams on the field (11 per team)
and then throw in a referee, and it’s more than likely that you’ll find a
shared birthday. If your mind balks at this, test it at your next large
gathering.
Now, back to the Monty Hall Problem. A good way to
understand problems like this is to push them to an extreme. Imagine,
for example, that there are not three doors but 300. There’s still just
one good prize, with the rest being goats (the bad prize).
So you pick a door—say number #274. There’s a 1/300 chance you’re right. This needs to be emphasized: you’re almost certainly wrong.
Then the game show host opens 298 of the remaining doors: 1, 2, 3, and
so on. He skips door #59 and your door, #274. Every open door shows a
goat.
Now: should you switch? Of course you should—your initial
pick is still almost surely wrong. The probabilities are 1/300 for #274
and 299/300 for #59.
Another way to look at the problem: do you want to stick with your initial door or do you want all
the other doors? Switching is simply choosing all the other doors,
because (thanks to the open doors) you know the only door within that
set that could be the winner.
One lesson from this is that our
innate understanding of probability is poor, and a corollary is that
there’s a big difference between confidence and accuracy. That is, just
because one’s confidence in a belief is high doesn’t mean that the
belief is accurate. This little puzzle does a great job of illustrating
this.
Perhaps you’ve already anticipated the connection with
choosing a religion. Imagine you’ve picked your religion—religion #274,
let’s say. For most people, their adoption of a religion is like picking
a door in this game show. In the game show, you don’t weigh evidence
before selecting your door; you pick it randomly. And most people adopt
the dominant religion of their upbringing. As with the game show, the
religion in which you grew up is also assigned to you at random.
Now
imagine an analogous game, the Game of Religion, with Truth as host.
Out of 300 doors (behind each of which is a religion), the believer
picks door #274. Truth flings open door after door and we see nothing
but goats. Hinduism, Sikhism, Jainism, Mormonism—all goats. As you
suspected, they’re just amalgams of legend, myth, tradition, and wishful
thinking.
Few of us seriously consider or even understand the
religions Winti, Candomblé, Mandaeism, or the ancient religions of
Central America, for example. Luckily for the believer, Truth gets
around to those doors too and opens them to reveal goats.
Here’s where the analogy between the two games fails. First, Truth opens all the other doors. Only the believer’s pick, door #274, is still closed. Second, there was never a guarantee that any
door contained a true religion! Since the believer likely came to his
beliefs randomly, why imagine that his choice is any more likely than
the others to hold anything of value?
Every believer plays the
Game of Religion, and every believer believes that his religion is the
one true religion, with goats behind all the hundreds of other doors.
But maybe there’s a goat behind every door. And given that the
lesson from the 300-door Monty Hall game is that the door you randomly
picked at first is almost certainly wrong, why imagine that yours is the
only religion that’s not mythology?
but here is a comment from a site
http://www.patheos.com/blogs/crossexamined/2013/01/the-monty-hall-problem-and-how-it-undercuts-christianity/
The Perplexing Monty Hall Problem and How It Undercuts Christianity
January 18, 2013 By Bob Seidensticker 112 Comments
In keeping with the Bayes Theorem dose of probability theory last week, here’s a very approachable probability problem.
Suppose
you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors:
Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say
No. 1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another
door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, “Do you want to
pick door No. 2?”
Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?
Most people think that it doesn’t matter and that there’s no benefit to switching. They’re wrong, but more on that in a moment.
Humans
have a hard time with probability problems like this one. You’d think
that we’d be fairly comfortable with basic probability, but apparently
not.
Here’s another popular probability problem: how many people
must you have in a group before it becomes more likely than not that any
two of them have the same birthday?
The surprising answer is 23.
In other words, imagine two football teams on the field (11 per team)
and then throw in a referee, and it’s more than likely that you’ll find a
shared birthday. If your mind balks at this, test it at your next large
gathering.
Now, back to the Monty Hall Problem. A good way to
understand problems like this is to push them to an extreme. Imagine,
for example, that there are not three doors but 300. There’s still just
one good prize, with the rest being goats (the bad prize).
So you pick a door—say number #274. There’s a 1/300 chance you’re right. This needs to be emphasized: you’re almost certainly wrong.
Then the game show host opens 298 of the remaining doors: 1, 2, 3, and
so on. He skips door #59 and your door, #274. Every open door shows a
goat.
Now: should you switch? Of course you should—your initial
pick is still almost surely wrong. The probabilities are 1/300 for #274
and 299/300 for #59.
Another way to look at the problem: do you want to stick with your initial door or do you want all
the other doors? Switching is simply choosing all the other doors,
because (thanks to the open doors) you know the only door within that
set that could be the winner.
One lesson from this is that our
innate understanding of probability is poor, and a corollary is that
there’s a big difference between confidence and accuracy. That is, just
because one’s confidence in a belief is high doesn’t mean that the
belief is accurate. This little puzzle does a great job of illustrating
this.
Perhaps you’ve already anticipated the connection with
choosing a religion. Imagine you’ve picked your religion—religion #274,
let’s say. For most people, their adoption of a religion is like picking
a door in this game show. In the game show, you don’t weigh evidence
before selecting your door; you pick it randomly. And most people adopt
the dominant religion of their upbringing. As with the game show, the
religion in which you grew up is also assigned to you at random.
Now
imagine an analogous game, the Game of Religion, with Truth as host.
Out of 300 doors (behind each of which is a religion), the believer
picks door #274. Truth flings open door after door and we see nothing
but goats. Hinduism, Sikhism, Jainism, Mormonism—all goats. As you
suspected, they’re just amalgams of legend, myth, tradition, and wishful
thinking.
Few of us seriously consider or even understand the
religions Winti, Candomblé, Mandaeism, or the ancient religions of
Central America, for example. Luckily for the believer, Truth gets
around to those doors too and opens them to reveal goats.
Here’s where the analogy between the two games fails. First, Truth opens all the other doors. Only the believer’s pick, door #274, is still closed. Second, there was never a guarantee that any
door contained a true religion! Since the believer likely came to his
beliefs randomly, why imagine that his choice is any more likely than
the others to hold anything of value?
Every believer plays the
Game of Religion, and every believer believes that his religion is the
one true religion, with goats behind all the hundreds of other doors.
But maybe there’s a goat behind every door. And given that the
lesson from the 300-door Monty Hall game is that the door you randomly
picked at first is almost certainly wrong, why imagine that yours is the
only religion that’s not mythology?
This math cannot be called statistics...it's gotta more about probabilities... :huh: eliminating the probabilities. I'm normally good at this kind of thing but you still really end up with two choices.
My choice of staying on 1. would be purely based on the psych of the HS...
My choice of staying on 1. would be purely based on the psych of the HS...
Angelina,
re: "I'm normally good at this kind of thing but you still really end up with two choices."
Correct. The choice to stay with curtain #1 and a 1/3rd chance or the choice to switch to curtain #2 with a 2/3rds chance.
re: "I'm normally good at this kind of thing but you still really end up with two choices."
Correct. The choice to stay with curtain #1 and a 1/3rd chance or the choice to switch to curtain #2 with a 2/3rds chance.
It is fairly simple .... once you pick your curtain there are two curtains remaining
if the car is behind one of them , the host will not open it
that is why you should pick it , the car is behind it (2 out of 3 times)
the only way that will not work is if your first pick had the car behind it (1 out of 3 times)
if the car is behind one of them , the host will not open it
that is why you should pick it , the car is behind it (2 out of 3 times)
the only way that will not work is if your first pick had the car behind it (1 out of 3 times)
Arnie Manitoba,
re: "...there are two curtains remaining if the car is behind one of them..."
???????
re: "...there are two curtains remaining if the car is behind one of them..."
???????
Actually I said if the car is behind one of them the host will not open itrstrats said:
And that is why you should pick it (good possibility the car is there)
There are three curtains
1. nothing behind it
2. car behind it
3. nothing behind it
You first pick curtain #1
Host knows where car is so he opens curtain # 3
Host will never open # 2 because the car is behind it
That is why you should change your pick to #2
You win the car.
This happens 2 times out of 3 (good odds)
Now if your first pick is curtain #2 it will not work
Because you will change your pick to an empty curtain
This happens 1 time out of 3 (not good odds)
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