Traders and Investors

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Josho

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Most Electrical motors and equipment is made with copper...
A little bit with silver and gold...a lot is made with aluminum but it can't be used in space restricted areas...it's going to take up a lot more space than copper but not have all the weight. But when it comes time for EV...they have to use copper for the heat fluctuations. Because aluminum can't take it nor can the enamel on the windings wire take that kind of movement.
And 3 HP motors aren't exactly cheap... especially the kind going into these cars.

Now looking at two companies....

Fastly vx Cloudfare.
Fastly is more of a "promoted" stock. It certainly is a darling of wall street.
But when looking at how they progressed with their earnings and balance sheets...

Fastly grew more revenue by "add ons" to existing customers and only added 11 more customers. Cloudfare grew earnings by adding a whole bunch of new customers and increasing revenue from existing customers. (It's also a much larger firm)

As the battles for cloud based computing continues...my first question is always. "Does this stuff really work?"
"Are these technologies really "traps" that you can't get out of?"
Vanderbilt University is looking at these things as well. Testing several various cloud based companies. My wife is involved as she by luck has been involved with integrations for three enterprise software systems. Once you go in... you aren't coming out. Not easily. Going in and going out are both very very expensive. Going out of one into another is even more so.

And why are we still looking so hard at renewable energy resources when Texas shows us that plugging in a car is going to be impossible when it snows. A 4x4 EV? I don't think that this is going to work out.

Somebody needs to think this stuff through just a bit more.

Apparently I heard the problem with Texas, is they are aren't built to stand strong winter storms, they are built to stand hot weather, so their wind turbines freeze and their water pipes burst. But I heard in Alaska, the wind turbines keep spinning in the extreme cold temperatures there.
 
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JohnDB

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Apparently I heard the problem with Texas, is they are aren't built to stand strong winter storms, they are built to stand hot weather, so their wind turbines freeze and their water pipes burst. But I heard in Alaska, the wind turbines keep spinning in the extreme cold temperatures there.

Texas also gets hurricanes. And yes, there's always a breeze blowing in Texas; especially as you get closer to the gulf coast.

I don't mind renewable energy and cheap energy.
Cheap, effective and efficient is the best.

Spending 3,000 to make $3/yr worth of energy is lunacy. Currently it more like $100 for every 0.09 worth...and that's just installation costs. It takes 20 years to break even with current technology. And the environmental impacts of current technology is worse than the conventional methodology of hydrocarbon fuels.

Lithium mining, silicon purification and doping, rare earth minerals and carbon fiber fabrication are extremely environmentally unfriendly. All are necessary for any of the "green technologies". That's why China does most of this stuff. They really don't care about their environment. Ask anyone who has been to Shanghai in the spring or fall about looking across the street through the smog. (They can't)

Currently they are still having a very huge problem with electricity generation. (Insufficient amounts) They have been for over a decade. Their huge dam wasn't engineered correctly and they are not getting even half the power it was supposed to provide. (Last time I talked with the ABB engineers installing the switches for it)
So they use all forms of coal without the scrubbers to generate power. Including soft yellow coal which is the dirtiest coal to use. It can be used cleanly but...not easily. And they just don't.
 

JohnDB

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And buying low doesn't have to happen before selling high.
 

JohnDB

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That was fun day.

I decided to day trade to help make up for some losses I knew I was going to take in my long stocks.
I played with GME and RKT today.
Shorted GME @ 130 and covered at 119 (its been really down AH)
RKT I was in at 36 and out at 40. It looks like it is going to be in play tomorrow as well. (got in late and out early...hey Hogs get slaughtered)
Then there was JCS.
I don't remember what I set up but apparently I got in and out with $21 to show for setting it up....I was having lunch while my bid and ask was covered.
GME is going to probably drop like a rock again tomorrow. It closed down just a bit from the close yesterday. I don't imagine that their rally can hold much longer. There are no friends on Wall Street. And money is way too cheap to borrow for those wanting to short the stock beyond three days. Trying to "win" by getting your friends on Wall Street to back your positions is always a losing proposition.
RKT has a better chance at recovery than GME...they actually have a decent business model. Granted they have been lax and made some poor choices...but this recovery from the attacks of the hedge funds should allow them to correct their mistakes.
The Rally on RKT might actually have half a chance at lasting a while.
Holding onto GME is like those that held on to BlockBuster Video Stores...it didn't work out for those people either. KMart? Sears? JC Penny's?
Five and Dime? And You Too can make money by selling Shaklee Vitamins....ROFL.

The rest of the market was RED...
My long positions are a mixed bag. I lost some profits I gained last week by buying low on particular ones...others didn't budge from being up. And others still tanked a bit. (gonna look at them tomorrow and ensure I am positioned well.)
As soon as the bears get finished... (and we were due a pullback...yesterday's gains were the straw on the camel's back)
I'm going to reevaluate and pick some new long positions.

I'm looking at "recovery from pandemic" stocks mostly. Its March going into spring and summer. There are still microprocessor shortages. (those aren't going away anytime soon) and there are going to be some travelers and vacationers. Also people are going to start going to movie theatres (maybe) and definitely some concerts (if available) and plays. (dinner theatres) maybe some amusement parks.

I dunno...all going to depend upon debts, forward PE, VIX and price. (And what I can find)
Its a real mixed bag out there with stupid money mixed in with saavy money. The best money is in the quiet corners. Long, Slow, but always upwards moving. 1% today, 2.5% tomorrow...maybe a flat day here and there. Those are my favorites.
 

JohnDB

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Looks like the fear index is down and stocks are roaring forward again today.

Wall Street Bets has a new focus for Rocket Companies and lost interest in Game Stop.

Once again proving...there are no friends on Wall Street.
If you want a friend...buy a dog. Investors are more like cats. Their interests are their own.

That bipolar reaction from retail investors is highly irratic. And you have to be able to admit that you are wrong quickly and without hesitation on that. The longer you hesitate the more money you lose.

Emotional investing is the quickest way to lose money. Three bad trades in a day and it's time to cash out and walk away. Try again tomorrow.

And if a stock doesn't perform in a month...stop holding it. It's dead...it's not going to perform for you. Try something else. History of the market has no bearing on the future...so get rid of old newspapers and journals.
If you have gotten the 10-20% returns on a stock that you planned on... time to move on unless you would buy the stock again at this price.

And fund investors... remember...no loyalty in the market. Sure that fund has performed in the past. But the fund manager has left like Elvis. The show is over. There might be a bump...but it's really over. Find new territory to invest in. 90% investigation and 5% confirmation and 5% actually investing. The moment you stop investigating you are losing ground. (Which is why I left investing decades ago)
Constantly surf ALL the resources you can find for news. Watch the weather reports for the entire world. Wheat, rice, and coffee may not seem to matter to microprocessors...but they do to the people making them. And in the end you are really investing in people. Understanding what the news really means to the positions of stocks you hold is crucial to "getting the jump" on the other traders.

Risk management is another whole topic. But part of investing in people.

People have various motivations. Fear of sticks or the promised pleasure of carrots.
Which is why wars and politics can do more to destroy a marketplace than to help it.
Interventions by Government in the market is always dreaded. The leader of Wall Street Bets has lost his NASD license, his job, and is still poised for criminal charges.
He made millions telling others to buy while he sold. Creating "dumb money" is nothing to be proud of. Not going to get him a bimbet girlfriend/wife. And if it does, ask Johnny Depp how that has worked out for him.
 

JohnDB

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Today was rough across the board.

Retail and tech stocks getting hit the hardest.

Some of the value plays in various sectors were positive...as they have continued to be. Which is where I put my serious money.

For the past two weeks these slow lumbering stocks have logged 15-20% gains.
Not glamorous. Not sexy brag worthy results. But that kind of money in the long run is where the real gold in being an investor/trader is all about.
It's not "Get Rich Quick". It's long hours of research and study... waiting and picking out the price targets for buying in and exiting.
 

JohnDB

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Today is looking like another "RED" day.
Everything is down...looking to erase all of February's gains. And for some stocks, all of the gains made since December.

I am seeing buying opportunities coming up...some of those stocks are representing buying opportunities. Some are getting correct positions for what they produce. People are running to Bitcoin...as if it is a "safe haven" for their money. (which is what it was engineered for) I just don't really like the risk associated with the thing. It might become a standard one day. But bitcoins are easily destroyed. If the power goes out or phone lines go out...you haven't got even a nickel. Gold, Silver, Diamonds, and even Pearls (and pearls are a con job from the get go) are standards of value. Have been for centuries. Fiat monetary systems never end well...and they always end. Babylon was the first nation to create it under Daniel's direction. (yes...same guy in the lions den) Anybody trade with those these days? Just saying. Same thing as confederate dollars, same thing as Pound Sterling...(although it has returned) and now Euros and Ria and peso and yen and rupees and rubles and....
Speaking of such things...is it any wonder Generac Stock has done so well this past month? 30% plus in the past month. (every public natural disaster causes their stock to climb and Texas was public)

So...while the VIX has lost some gains...still too high for my taste.

So...I'm off for a shot in the knee this morning. Set some safety nets for stocks while I am out. (got a few things in play this morning.)
Looking for more good places to place some good hedged bets on. (other than bitcoin or any cryptocurrency)

Still looking...maybe infrastructure(construction) or maybe housing, or something...I do think that people will love the "great outdoors" and seek to conquer it...get out of the cities more and remote office. Become more rural. As well as come into the cities for concerts and parties.
And that has a play...Carnival and Norweign cruise lines are making their top price history as we speak. I don't see that holding up for a lot longer. Only thing left for them to do is disappoint in some fashion. Forward PE ratios don't help much during a downturn...but trailing ones do.

And for @Josho Copper took a nosedive last night...its heading back into the sphere of normalcy. It still isn't there...but it wants to. Oil is still sky high and climbing. Can anyone turn on the spigot please?
 

JohnDB

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I got super lucky today...

Jumped into SQQQ (a shorting ETF) and rode it up...then when it played out I caught the tail end of a GME spike to short...
That was all pure luck.
BUT
the major portion of my portfolio was in safe places...didn't exactly make great gains today (less than one percent) but they didn't drop like a rock either.
 

JohnDB

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Looking like a mixed morning...VIX is down some...but I don't trust it. It could spike at any time. Wait for the opening Bell and see which way the wind blows this morning.

And if it is up....take the opportunity to get more liquid or buy into shorting ETFs. It's not going to stay up long.
 

JohnDB

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What a DAY!
I, at one point thought it was going to be a loser for sure.
The bulk of my investments are in slow moving stocks. (if anyone really wants to know just ask and I will PM you what I am involved with)
There's a certain amount of money I use for "Day Trading" and making informed decisions as to what is going to happen. I don't use leveraged purchases unless they are secured with cash.
So...I was playing with an index fund and a shorting index fund. Not by intention. I thought that today was going to be a really down day so I bought into the shorting etf. Then things got going up...so I got reversed and bought a bull index etf fund and congratulated myself on reacting so quickly...but it was just a hiccup and things continued to go south for the day...:eek::mad:...I was all upset with myself for reacting too quickly...but then after the late breakfast I discovered that I had chosen actually correctly. (Much to my surprise) the market was heading back up into green territory. My plan of attack was absolutely fine. And I rode my position till almost the end of the day. Made a bit of green from that and ended up being pleased with myself. I thought that I was going to have one of those expensive "learning lessons".

Then since I decided I was "on fire" I went and played with GameStop idiots...that stock is so twitchy on such low volume you look at it crosseyed and it will move four dollars for no reason whatsoever. But the seasoned trader can react fast enough with brakes set and perameters set to where it really doesn't require a lot of calculations to figure out how to day trade that stock currently...just be disciplined and make good choices. One of the guys in a chatroom discussing this stock says he is about to buy a new house on what he has made day trading this stock. He probably is no too far from the truth as he has likely made a very good sized down payment in money from trading it. Absolutely not outside the realm of possibilities with as little as 20k. Those sized stakes aren't outside of the box for some guys.
 

JohnDB

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Managing risk...

Just a word about it.
Ever done all the homework possible on a stock, found your entry point, set your buy order and walked away and when you go back to look that stock has tanked?

Happens to me on a regular basis. It seems that no matter what I do the second I buy a stock wanting it to go up it immediately goes down. And if I'm shorting a stock it immediately goes up. It never fails. And because we are using hard earned money we really second guess all our due diligence.

But even though we have studied and done our homework stuff happens.

And I'm just as guilty as anyone else about not setting stop loss orders when I purchase a stock. I get lazy or just forget to put in an order for 5% lower or higher depending on my plan at the time I'm making out the order.

And I get it...we get in a hurry because money never rests. It never sleeps...it never stops moving.

Most of my money is tied up in sleepy stocks outside of the glamour stocks. They never make headlines. You won't see many (if any) headlines in the financial journals about these stocks or ETFs. And I don't have to watch them with red strained eyes and white knuckles with a finger on the keyboard ready at a the scent of an ill wind. I Look at them once a day and see the nice little rise.

Now the glamour stocks like DIS or AMZN...they have a ton of press. But remember the axiom...pigs get fed slop. Hogs get butchered.

Meaning that yes...the tons of information about these stocks is helpful...but these require regular eyeballs several times a day with limit orders every day. If you bought DIS around Thanksgiving but didn't dump it for New Years...you gave up almost all of your gains by February. There hasn't really been a good and clear buy point since. (Oh I know that some will disagree) And the stock has lazed about and done anything much since.
Tech stocks like AMZN are down and down severely from their highs of February. But lately it's getting even more pumping than ever before...now why do you imagine that is? You are getting fed slop and expected to love it.
Sure, if a stock moves you can make money...just don't expect it to move up. It can move down. And I like shorting a stock as much as any trader does. Both directions make money... just be prepared. Lots of cash is going to be needed to finish out this correction. Wait for the sentiment to be positive and strong before you go long on any glamour stock. Hogs (FOMOs) get slaughtered.
Its just money...so don't get emotional. Don't do the emotional trading either. If you are upset or overly giddy... you are going to make a mistake and pay for it.
Lets those guys at GME be all emotional over holding their stock. Their doom is blatant and obvious. So DON'T BE THEM.
 

Jay Ross

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Hello,

Buying and selling on the stock market can give you gains and losses, but it is not until you sell some of your share holdings that you either, make a loss or make a prophet, on that stock, from selling when trading on the volatility of the stock market.

Stability is what is required if we are to trade on the stock market and what we should seek when considering the share market.

The pandemic last year caused a lot of panic selling of shares, however, the fundamentals underlining the stock, which lost money, was still strong and patience is required. The fundamentals of a good stock holding is, does it provide a relatively good return each year on the value of the stock. Is the percentage return on the value of the stock greater than the fundamental bank interest one can get from a bank or government bond.

This is what has happened to the stock value my wife holds: -

upload_2021-3-8_6-28-0.png

Over a two month period last year it lost 45% of its value and, since it bottomed out at the end of the first quarter of 2020, it has steadily rise in value to where at this present time it has recovered in value where it is only around 8% lower than the peak in the graph which occurred around the end of January 2020.

The percentage Share Price values of the past year or so, is shown in the chart below: -

upload_2021-3-8_6-50-37.png

Knowing the story of each stock holding is important. Stock 1 has fallen because of the world trade situation and China flexing its trading muscle, Stock 2 has fallen badly at this present time but it will recover as its investments in new plant comes on line. Stock 3 is an exporter of raw materials, and China is its biggest market. Stock 4 is an exploration company and its recover was linked to favourable government decisions which will allow the company to extract CSG from its mining leases. Stock 5 is a struggling company created by Stock 3 when it was split off from the stock 3 company. It has not performed well and as can be seen, its share price is recovering from the impact of the pandemic of early last year.

At the present time the property market in my country is where the "smart" money is flowing to out of the Share market, as it showing a better return than the stock market and people are borrowing from the banks at historical low interest rates to buy property in the hope of making money in the years to come from capital gains. But the gains being made in one part of the country, may be balanced by the losses being made in another part of the country as people move out of one state to another because of the perceived better lifestyle that can be had in the other state than the one they are presently living in.

In housing the fundamental value of a house is what people are prepared to pay for a property to acquire it. Now the fundamental value of a home never changes, it is a house where a family resides for a part of their life. What changes is how much people are "prepared to devalue" their money by, by paying an inflated price for the respective properties brought.

The property market is driving inflation up and this is being reflected in the cost of living. The pandemic is costing the people dearly in that the cost of food has risen because willing workers are difficult to find.

As is being suggested in this thread, money can be made is the commodity supply and demand markets, but ethics leaves the building up of the nation for its own good.

Shalom
 
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JohnDB

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Also...

I just checked the VIX...and the numbers aren't exactly accurate in reflecting what is going on...look below at the hedge fund activity. Lines are crossed... even if the VIX is down.
 

JohnDB

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Short sale breakers are still in place today on certain stocks...so be careful with your daily selections.

The market is up this morning...but be in and out like a thief today...don't stay in. Take the daily gains and be happy. Because when the short sale breakers come off... expect a huge selloff at basement sale prices.

That doesn't mean that there aren't good plays out there with strong companies. Stay away from the glamour stocks and equities until clear direction of the market is made clear. We aren't out of the woods yet. Bears are out in full force.

I made good gains on short sale hedge funds yesterday...best of the day really. My other stocks only ended up half a percent or flat...some positions lost a dollar or two for the whole position. And that's the sign of a good portfolio of stocks.

So today I'm looking for good stocks with good looking fundamentals and good charts. Lots of "cup with handles" forming out there.

I've got several picked out for today... you should too. Trading is always about the research...lots and lots of boring research.
Don't let others do it for you because "Pigs get fed slop and hogs get slaughtered. "

And on top of all of this...
Don't forget the 80/20 rule of business.

80% buy the wrong stocks. Only 20% know what to accurately buy and make substantial gains. 20% of the traders make 80% of the money to be made. The other 80% make the remaining 20% of the money to be made if not actually losing their money.

So...be the 20%...don't earn it or lose it.
 

JohnDB

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Hello,

Buying and selling on the stock market can give you gains and losses, but it is not until you sell some of your share holdings that you either, make a loss or make a prophet, on that stock, from selling when trading on the volatility of the stock market.

Stability is what is required if we are to trade on the stock market and what we should seek when considering the share market.

The pandemic last year caused a lot of panic selling of shares, however, the fundamentals underlining the stock, which lost money, was still strong and patience is required. The fundamentals of a good stock holding is, does it provide a relatively good return each year on the value of the stock. Is the percentage return on the value of the stock greater than the fundamental bank interest one can get from a bank or government bond.

This is what has happened to the stock value my wife holds: -

View attachment 13754

Over a two month period last year it lost 45% of its value and, since it bottomed out at the end of the first quarter of 2020, it has steadily rise in value to where at this present time it has recovered in value where it is only around 8% lower than the peak in the graph which occurred around the end of January 2020.

The percentage Share Price values of the past year or so, is shown in the chart below: -

View attachment 13757

Knowing the story of each stock holding is important. Stock 1 has fallen because of the world trade situation and China flexing its trading muscle, Stock 2 has fallen badly at this present time but it will recover as its investments in new plant comes on line. Stock 3 is an exporter of raw materials, and China is its biggest market. Stock 4 is an exploration company and its recover was linked to favourable government decisions which will allow the company to extract CSG from its mining leases. Stock 5 is a struggling company created by Stock 3 when it was split off from the stock 3 company. It has not performed well and as can be seen, its share price is recovering from the impact of the pandemic of early last year.

At the present time the property market in my country is where the "smart" money is flowing to out of the Share market, as it showing a better return than the stock market and people are borrowing from the banks at historical low interest rates to buy property in the hope of making money in the years to come from capital gains. But the gains being made in one part of the country, may be balanced by the losses being made in another part of the country as people move out of one state to another because of the perceived better lifestyle that can be had in the other state than the one they are presently living in.

In housing the fundamental value of a house is what people are prepared to pay for a property to acquire it. Now the fundamental value of a home never changes, it is a house where a family resides for a part of their life. What changes is how much people are "prepared to devalue" their money by, by paying an inflated price for the respective properties brought.

The property market is driving inflation up and this is being reflected in the cost of living. The pandemic is costing the people dearly in that the cost of food has risen because willing workers are difficult to find.

As is being suggested in this thread, money can be made is the commodity supply and demand markets, but ethics leaves the building up of the nation for its own good.

Shalom

Just to say you are doing well...
You definitely made gains yesterday when everyone else was losing. Tech stocks got taken to the cleaners but commodities and related trades came out as winners...even garbage collectors did well handling garbage (garbage is a commodity).

Taiwanese are still having a severe drought. So that is a play to make. Until the monsoons hit they are out of water. Watch them closely...one good rainstorm and they are back in business.
 

JohnDB

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Mixed morning again...
The Dow jumped up out at the open but gave up all of its gains yesterday...I'm expecting more of the same today...

Keep your powder dry again until clear directions can be had out of the market.

And hedge any bets you make...better to lose 0.50 than to lose 25% .
 

JohnDB

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Tough trading day...

I'm going to have to try different sectors to play in from my norm...

Probably going to get out of the sectors I've been in and try something different.

I'm down a bit today but it was to set myself up for tomorrow. Not sure exactly where to look for where I can play.

Every stock chart has a rhythm. Everyone has their own personal rhythm that they can play with. And when the two meet... you can make money.

But time changes and another sector has to be found...

I'm looking for a new one. But I got a doc appointment tomorrow...hope all goes well tomorrow while I'm out.
 

JohnDB

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Well...it's early morning and doing research...

Looking at the open I see that my $5 loss last night has been erased with some nice gains from the overnight.

And while those play out this morning I am going to get my shot for my troublesome knee.

Things currently look flat on the Dow and up on the Nasdaq at the open...let's see what happens.
 

JohnDB

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Tough trading day today...

Nothing worked...low volume to start with and then Biden's Treasury increased the bond rate to it's highest point in a year and the bottom fell out. The place was a corkscrew and I was the one getting screwed at every turn. So I turned off the computer and walked away (after dumping everything but Microsoft) and I'll try again Monday.

I lost something like $35 today...it's not the money that bothers me so much as it is the losing anything. The charts looked great. The fundamentals of the companies looked even better...but it just wasn't my day. Even the ETFs that I like to play couldn't get their swinging straight today either.

Dow is up... nasdaq can't figure out if it's up or down. And good luck with trying to find a clear path today. No volume of trading to even get a swing in any direction of making something happen. Boeing was really up today but even with the selloff of portions and confirmed orders...I want nothing to do with it...their balance sheets are a train wreck.
Might as well play GameStop. As much luck there with those guys as Boeing has.

At any rate I was getting frustrated and so I walked away for today.

Three bad trades and I was out. That's one of the rules I set for myself.

No trading upset/emotional.
3 bad trades in a day and walk away.
If you aren't getting the results you wanted and know that the whole Market is against you (or just not working in the way you expect)...walk away for the day.
And

Mistakes are expensive. But a lost soul costs more.