Traders and Investors

[JohnDB]

I’m not completely depending on my TSP. I will also have an annuity from the Post Office, along with Social Security plus my wife has a 403B along with an annuity and Social Security. We’ll also have the house paid off. I was contemplating options on rolling my TSP account into a different fund after I retire to earn better interest.

There are some great ETFs and ETF hedge funds that would be perfect for you. They have very low fees and no commissions to pay.
I'm not exactly a fan of annuities.
I understand the allure but...I'm more about self control and discipline to ever use one.
They really don't pay off as well as direct investment vehicles. Kinda like a reverse mortgage...they can leave you homeless before you are ready to be homeless.

ETFs are mutual funds that can mimic regular mutual funds but don't have any salesman selling them to you (stockbroker) who gets a commission or reduces your interest. They purchase just like a stock and sell just like a stock. And if you use a discount Brokerage house the transaction fees are either none or 0.50 per transaction.

Some ETFs focus on sectors. Like real estate or microchips or biotech. I'd currently avoid those in bonds as inflation tends to destroy those. (Rising interest rates kill bond profits and falling interest rates do wonderful things...and right now money is about free to borrow)
Metals will probably be good for a while yet and they just came out with one for cryptocurrency. But that one is going to be extremely high risk.

Chips will likely be good for a couple of years as the shortage isn't exactly going away for a couple of years. It takes that long to build a plant to produce them. The equipment required isn't exactly made quickly either.
(Lots of robotics and PLC controlled equipment in super clean rooms)
Entertainment...it's a toss up. They all took huge losses. From cruise ships to theatres and venues. Sure they might be back in business soon but now they have huge debt loads from not being in operation for over a year. That's going to be difficult to overcome.

Petroleum? It's a yo-yo. From coal to oil and gas these guys are under OPEC and OPEC2. They get indigestion and they increase production. They get a hang nail and cut production. They are controlled more by politics than economics.

 

[JohnDB]

Bitcoin is going to put some people under...
Elon musk for sure.

If I was a retail establishment and someone wanted to purchase something using Bitcoin I would charge a 20% service fee.

Making that $50,000 Bitcoin truly worth $40,000. And using bollinger bands... even less.

I'm watching another company now. I like cloud based tech companies. I like good, solid companies that deliver "robust" software for handling the huge volumes of paperwork like the medical research communities create. GM does this with their customer base. So do a lot of other companies.

I'm watching a small, privately held company try to compete in this market. Wanting to eventually go public. The problem is the CEO. He is a salesman. He doesn't provide the real leadership the company needs. The development team (programmers) are always the sticking point. If they don't find or want to find solutions to customer's basic problems for integrations and usability...what good is the product? Oversold is the term. This time a negative instead of a possibly juicy buying opportunity.
And this company has oversold their product.
It's like when Atlanta GA was hosting the summer Olympics. They did a miserable job at it. They were super nice and kind but in the end it was a miserable experience for the teams and spectators. The city's performance wasn't what it should have been. Plumbing, electricity, appliances, food and security all were performed poorly.

But they had kind expressions of real sympathy on their faces when their performance bothered everyone. And you could witness them struggling to make things right...but in the end; the food made you sick, you couldn't use the plumbing, the AC didn't work, and thieves, drug pushers, and rapists were everywhere. You did good if your hotel room door lock worked.
In the end you just didn't want to go back no matter how nice the Admins behaved. They just didn't do the job they said they could.

This privately held startup is doing the same thing. And wondering why they are having problems. That's because programmers deal in absolutes. They don't work on emotions. They work on facts. They don't care about a sales pitch. They work on specifications. And they have job skills that can keep themselves employed anywhere they can get high speed internet access. City or rural. That salesman CEO hasn't connected with the development team lead. The team lead doesn't motivate his staff. He doesn't care about the problems.
In the end I feel bad for the investors. The company is broken. The company just had a 7.8 million dollar round of B shares funding and unless something is done soon to fix the cultural problems the company is going to dissolve with a lot of hurt feelings everywhere. Customers, investors, and employees. (Aside from the development team)
On paper, right now, the company looks great...on paper. They need a new showpony on the development team. The current one is tired. And the CEO probably doesn't understand that. For all his salesmanship abilities he just isn't much for leadership.
He has a pedigree too. I wonder if he knows that he will be looking for a job soon.

 

[JohnDB]

Just a quick word...

Those looking to get rich off of GameStop going up...it isn't going to happen. There are no friends on Wall Street or Nasdaq or AMEX.

You always come out better by shorting this stock when it is run up than any other method. Poor people are poor because they make poor choices.
I got $160 already today by shorting this stock after first losing by thinking they could actually pull off a rally. Looking forward to Monday when I can get $40 per share profit when they can't hold up this price. For whatever reason those on twitter and reddit don't think that the institutional hedge funds can't read their public posts. There isn't going to be any institutional short coverings this time. They all got out. And corporate GameStop hasn't figured out how to sell their products online as well as E-Bay, Craigslist, Amazon, or even Walmart. Someone suggested that they do a selloff of stock to buy some bitcoin...and don't even know to look and see that they don't have the stock or cash reserves to do that.
What bank is going to loan them the money to make such a purchase when their stock has a target price of $13 but is currently run up to around $100. (was supposed to hit $200 today)

Meanwhile, back in other news...

I took advantage of some really low prices vx valuations and stock price targets yesterday. All is paying off well today. I ain't perfect. I missed purchasing one of my favorite stocks two days ago and am crying over the run up today. Its a slow burning stock...not a lot of action. But its growth is fairly well guaranteed. It yo-yo's like other tech stocks...I'll get a chance at a buy in again. But that window is closing soon so I'll have to watch it carefully. But when you got dummies boosting and then dumping a stock its kinda hard not to pick up the stupid money in the market...and I can get distracted by the allure of easy money. (about $1200 in three days) I have a goal of hiring a charter boat for fishing in the gulf with my father...about a $2,000-3,000 vacation by the time all is said and done. And all those guys playing with GME and marijuana stocks make it all too easy to take their money. (I don't do the marijuana stocks)

 

[JohnDB]

Heres a site for those looking for ETFs.

100 Highest 3 Year ETF Returns | ETF Database

 

[JohnDB]

GME already below $100 in aftermarket.
There's no hedge fund activity.

Options are just options to buy or sell and almost half go unexecuted and expired.

But it doesn't seem that WSB understands that...they feel so proud that they pumped up a stock and held it to above the $100 today...

By Monday it will be a $50 stock again. I'll be rolling in dough and the poor schmucks who got in at $120+ will wonder where their money went.

Penny flipping also has issues. They can go up or down. Most people involved with them have no real business sense...they buy them because "Fred" said to.

 

[JohnDB]

But Tommy is still holding onto his 200 shares he bought hoping they will rally to $600 again.

 

[quietthinker]

Not hardly...

maybe it's with the trade routes set up....the ones glorified in mans reality

 

[Josho]

Unfortunately penny stocks in Silver went down for the end of the week, and my silver shares went down after Tuesday. I will be hanging on though, hopefully I see another spike. Unfortunately Australia now has an equivalent to WSB messing with the stock markets. I am no longer going to sell, until the shares hit the targets I want them to hit, I think with the Silver shares I want to make at least a 30% profit before I sell. My other shares in the Gold exploration, I want to hang on until they are worth quite a bit, I plan for that to be long term, I still expect if everything were to go right, I could make a significant profit on those Gold shares.

 

[Josho]

Nintendo, Sony, Nikon, Canon, all the major big Japanese tech stocks went down yesterday.

 

[JohnDB]

Nintendo, Sony, Nikon, Canon, all the major big Japanese tech stocks went down yesterday.

Unfortunately penny stocks in Silver went down for the end of the week, and my silver shares went down after Tuesday. I will be hanging on though, hopefully I see another spike. Unfortunately Australia now has an equivalent to WSB messing with the stock markets. I am no longer going to sell, until the shares hit the targets I want them to hit, I think with the Silver shares I want to make at least a 30% profit before I sell. My other shares in the Gold exploration, I want to hang on until they are worth quite a bit, I plan for that to be long term, I still expect if everything were to go right, I could make a significant profit on those Gold shares.

In metals right now copper has seen the largest gains...and will continue to do so until electric car demand becomes realized. Aussie copper is at least 15% of global supply in one dock alone. Look at historical prices to entertain price points of entry and exit.
Tech always has yo-yo pricing. And certain tech stocks buck the trends in tech...look at micron...it goes in sympathy with price of memory.
Microsoft hit a buy point in price last week and climbed shortly after for a total of 5% gains. Nvidia is still falling from historical highs but soon might have a reasonable buy in point along with TSM. AAPL...I'm not holding much faith in its current price.

Financials also will do well Visa is at a high point. Square is tied too closely with bitcoin but might be a good play and 5G stocks have already run up too high.

Short term I see shorting the market as a better play than being long. Too many retail investors that have enjoyed gains buying without true due diligence. Most not understanding solid principles of business. If you don't know what PEG is or what a good number for PEG is...don't play. There's obviously more to investing than that but it is a starting point. And the fools investing in marijuana stocks and dead retailers will lose their money. This isn't for "get rich quick" schemes. It takes discipline and knowledgeable decisions to make solid slow gains in the market.

 

[JohnDB]

Metals chart...

Futures Metals Chart Daily

Copper is over $4/lb....that's high!

 

[mailmandan]

Once retired, what should be the allocations of TSP funds for postal retirees who choose to leave their money in the TSP? They always say start out more aggressive and once retired be more conservative. Exactly what does conservative look like after retirement? 10%-20% in the S&P 500 stock and 10%-20% in the Small Cap stock and the rest in the G fund? Or spread out 10%-20% throughout all the funds C,S,I,F and the rest in G? People that I work with at the Post Office are always asking this question.

 

[JohnDB]

Metals are relatively overvalued...but not completely.
Semiconductors are still in shortage. There are various types. The most expensive is SIC from a manufacturing standpoint. But they are necessary for EV and power applications. Currently supply is not keeping up with demand. Watch CREE. When the rest of the tech sector was down this stock rose over 7%.

That ought to be a clue...investing in tech is not as simple as picking out the big names and watching.

 

[JohnDB]

Once retired, what should be the allocations of TSP funds for postal retirees who choose to leave their money in the TSP? They always say start out more aggressive and once retired be more conservative. Exactly what does conservative look like after retirement? 10%-20% in the S&P 500 stock and 10%-20% in the Small Cap stock and the rest in the G fund? Or spread out 10%-20% throughout all the funds C,S,I,F and the rest in G? People that I work with at the Post Office are always asking this question.

Large Cap funds are usually the boring ones. Modest but steady growth and income. (Like J&J) large and sluggish these guys have usually slow steady gains. But they don't tank overnight either.
Then there's mid cap...these guys are more volatile...
Then small cap and micro-cap funds. These only get more volatile as they get smaller. These can keep you up at night with their volatility. But overall they usually outperform the large cap stocks in returns. They are focused on growth and priced on expected growth.

The mix of investments that is correct is the one you can handle. Are you going to draw down your retirement when the market is down and really exacerbate the draw from a micro cap fund? Or wait to make adjustments and draw solely from profits?

Just as we both know...life happens. Unexpected expenses happen. Kids have grandbabies. An opportunity for charter fishing in Patagonia becomes possible. A tree falls through your bedroom...after landing on your vehicle...
Not that insurance won't eventually fix some of these things but you are definitely going to need some pocket money in the meantime.

Staying up all night worrying about whether a micro cap fund is going to recover from a downturn or so elated at the gains it just made that you are looking at a new lifestyle....stay away from such things unless that's what you really want to occupy your time in retirement with.

Personally, I stayed out and away from the market because I preferred to do other things for most of my life. Now that my physical activity is lowering I am back to this for lack of desire to do anything else that is profitable. (I have other skills but I got replaced with a computer program)

But a nice bit of excitement over your investments during retirement shouldn't be excluded either. Life skills! You ought to know yourself by now.

 

[JohnDB]

In late January GME with institution investors trading the stock soared to $400+/share.

Today institution investors are avoiding it and base decisions on sound numbers and logic. But that hasn't stopped reddit investors from making it climb.

But there are no friends on wall street.

I'm predicting back pocket politics will rule to win over self righteously holding an empty bag of lost money.

It's up...pre market trading...but I don't expect it to be for long. By tomorrow morning the $45/share price will make everyone wish they shorted it.

 

[JohnDB]

Cybersecurity firm says social media bots hyped GameStop during trading frenzy

And these bots are doing the hype...

A computer program with no skin in the game but people believe in their posts.

This is "cancel culture" at it's worst. The very thing that is the plague on our society to begin with.

City people need rural people to live. Rural people need city people. The two societies actually need each other. They both have very different outlooks, lifestyles, and social norms. Both try to dominate the other.

WSB is all upset over institution investors. But their money vastly overwhelming is exponentially more than retail investors.

A group of 1,000 retail investors doesn't equal one institutional investors.
And WSB has scared away the institutional investors from GME.

The more they meddle with the stock the more the institutional investors abandon any position in holding or shorting it.

And it's going to actually end up destroying the company into oblivion. It's not going to exist anymore. Maybe a guy operating an ebay website out of a storage unit by the end. The retail store is gone...over...kaput.

If the average person's 401K or insurance company doesn't buy into GME...the retail investor has nothing to invest in. And that's precisely where we are heading.

At the end of the day nobody wants to be broke. Even the retail investor.

For some reason even the retail investor wants to pay the mortgage and buy groceries than teach a computer controlled hedge fund a lesson.

 

[JohnDB]

The VIX index is really up tonight...

Meaning expect a bad day trading tomorrow.

It might get so bad that the breakers will be hit.

Unless you are one of those people who do short calls. I got my pics for shorting tomorrow out of the gate.

Some of those overly priced stocks will be great to fall. Tech stocks, biotech stocks and other glam stocks.

 

[JohnDB]

I have seen lumber futures drop two days in a row now...

And just for @Josho
Silver was down last I looked too.

 

[Josho]

I have seen lumber futures drop two days in a row now...

And just for @Josho
Silver was down last I looked too.

Yep you sure are right about that one....

I wished I looked into copper haha, copper has had some pretty good gains in the past few years. When I was thinking about rechargable car batteries I was looking into Lithium, but the Lithium ETF I saw has been pretty stable this year so far, not too much movement, there has been a bit of movement in the in the past 12 months though.

Anything Gold related has been dropping a bit recently.

 

[JohnDB]

Yep you sure are right about that one....

I wished I looked into copper haha, copper has had some pretty good gains in the past few years. When I was thinking about rechargable car batteries I was looking into Lithium, but the Lithium ETF I saw has been pretty stable this year so far, not too much movement, there has been a bit of movement in the in the past 12 months though.

Anything Gold related has been dropping a bit recently.

Most Electrical motors and equipment is made with copper...
A little bit with silver and gold...a lot is made with aluminum but it can't be used in space restricted areas...it's going to take up a lot more space than copper but not have all the weight. But when it comes time for EV...they have to use copper for the heat fluctuations. Because aluminum can't take it nor can the enamel on the windings wire take that kind of movement.
And 3 HP motors aren't exactly cheap... especially the kind going into these cars.

Now looking at two companies....

Fastly vx Cloudfare.
Fastly is more of a "promoted" stock. It certainly is a darling of wall street.
But when looking at how they progressed with their earnings and balance sheets...

Fastly grew more revenue by "add ons" to existing customers and only added 11 more customers. Cloudfare grew earnings by adding a whole bunch of new customers and increasing revenue from existing customers. (It's also a much larger firm)

As the battles for cloud based computing continues...my first question is always. "Does this stuff really work?"
"Are these technologies really "traps" that you can't get out of?"
Vanderbilt University is looking at these things as well. Testing several various cloud based companies. My wife is involved as she by luck has been involved with integrations for three enterprise software systems. Once you go in... you aren't coming out. Not easily. Going in and going out are both very very expensive. Going out of one into another is even more so.

And why are we still looking so hard at renewable energy resources when Texas shows us that plugging in a car is going to be impossible when it snows. A 4x4 EV? I don't think that this is going to work out.

Somebody needs to think this stuff through just a bit more.