Traders and Investors

[JohnDB]

I've hit a nerve John?

That nerve of disgust...

 

[quietthinker]

That nerve of disgust...

what, with yourself?

 

[JohnDB]

what, with yourself?

Not hardly...

 

[JohnDB]

I'm noticing a bunch of stocks are getting ready for a pump and dump.

Just about every social media outlet has some of the same stocks being pumped while the better sites that discuss things like fundamentals are ignoring them.

One I see a bunch of sites promoting is Plantir... earnings are coming out Tuesday...but Friday they had positive news about a deal with IBM.
So...
Where I'd watch it but be very wary about putting money in it.

 

[JohnDB]

And one other topic coming up a lot recently...

Cryptocurrencies.

With Bitcoin reaching $50,000 per coin (I remember when it was $200). People are looking to these as they would commodities.

Ethereum and dogecoin being two others...all being massively pumped.

But they are just like antique china. Made cheap by the invention of EBay and easy to lose by breaking. Again extremely high risk.

And these cryptocurrencies are being used by terrorists and rogue states to fund terrorism and illicit drug campaigns and sex slavery.

Not something that I want anything to do with in enriching the coffers of criminal activity. These are just as bad as tilray marijuana stock... nothing I want anything to do with. And even as a business model marijuana being grown in Canada? Dumbest thing I've ever heard. The heating bill alone will be exhorbitant for the super clean growing rooms. And most of those who got caught up in that pump and dump scheme this past week paid a severe price.

Fundamentals and DD.
These things pay off for the long term investor. Not pie in the sky returns over a few weeks. (Such as has been realized by many since November and February)

And as the dollar loses value and inflation begins to rear it's ugly head... commodities and related industries will have great returns.

Also microchips are in short supply with no short term means of increasing supply anytime soon. So semiconductor manufacturing is going to be good for a while yet...Invidia, Intel, AMD, Micron and many others are going to be good performers for a while yet.

 

[JohnDB]

This post is for pure entertainment purposes and by no means is meant to be used as trading advice.
(I am not a licensed professional of any sort and have no expertise of any sort)
One of the most notable places of analysts saying "this is the best stock to buy" is FCX on Insider Monkey. 5 Best Mining Stocks to Buy Now - Insider Monkey
Zacks seems to like this stock as well....hummmm....I'm smelling a conspiracy....

It is a mining stock for those wishing to purchase Gold or related commodity stocks.
However...look at Finviz FCX Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Stock Quote

And the clear due diligence shows something else...
This stock is about to be dumped by many of the institutional investors holding millions of shares. Your little thousand dollar investment is about to be wiped out by hedge funds dumping this stock for greener pastures and large cash positions for shorting various stocks in the marketplace. They might even decide to short this one too.


and this is why paying attention to the headlines of those saying "This is the best stock to buy" should cause an almost immediate opposite reaction. They are putting lipstick on a pig and expecting you to be grateful for the opportunity to kiss it.

 

[JohnDB]

Oh...and before I forget...

Bitcoin lost at least $1,500 of value today...last I seen of it it was at 48,300 after reaching just shy of 50,000 this weekend.

dunno about you but I could use the money it lost today. It would have been a great "short". Etherium actually gained on the news.

BUT I come from the old school of investing...back in the '80's....

Bulls make money,
Bears make money,
Pigs get fed slop AND
Hogs get slaughtered.

And if anybody doesn't understand the context of this...just ask.

 

[Reggie Belafonte]

Not quite...
We have principles in this house.
I had a perfect opportunity to play with a stock...both the up and down. It was getting the pump and dump over four days.

But my wife and I agree...
I don't play marijuana stocks...as an electrician I don't build their farms either. Not Guns either.

I mainly play tech and biotech. You can't play the whole Market...
It's a game of studying and reading and analysis. It's not about the money... although it's used for keeping score. And the only person I play against is myself.

Why not with Marijuana or Guns.
Marijuana is a fantastic potential and always was, they made the best rope with such and good strong materials before the idiots banned all such.
Good Guns are essential tools in some industry's.
Nuclear power is the one to go for the future. the USA needs to replace all of the old rubbish Nuclear power plants directly for new Gen 3 or Gen 4 and Gen 5 that's coming out, for many years the world held back on Nuclear tec and fostered idiot views on the subject, just like they did with Marijuana and the childish simple minded views fostered all about that as well. the views they spread are derelict and that's why the creation of all the problems with such things have been empowered due to ignorance.
Look at the advancement in medical Marijuana, no one is going to get high on such or hooked on such at all, I know a mate who has smoked dope for 36years big time and gave it all up easy as, but it's giving up the fags that has him really truly battling with he said.

I am for licencing good healthy Marijuana, such can make people accountable and it wipes out all the criminal element and the lacing done by morons.
I am all for the next Generation Nuclear power plants as they are the biggest advancement in the worlds history so far, yet this is all hidden from Australians by law, nothing to be seen here everyone ! go back to sleep with your backwards solar toxic crap, yet the clowns do not inform you of that toxic wast and all that just does not add up to be so great as we are led to believe, it's a great rip off and the cunning behind it all is massive criminal intent over the people. it will one day be seen for being a crime that it truly is in ripping off the people.
Cheap good power or crap rip off power that Australian company's can not compete. we are on the cards in the future in becoming a 3rd world backwater.

 

[JohnDB]

Why not with Marijuana or Guns.
Marijuana is a fantastic potential and always was, they made the best rope with such and good strong materials before the idiots banned all such.
Good Guns are essential tools in some industry's.
Nuclear power is the one to go for the future. the USA needs to replace all of the old rubbish Nuclear power plants directly for new Gen 3 or Gen 4 and Gen 5 that's coming out, for many years the world held back on Nuclear tec and fostered idiot views on the subject, just like they did with Marijuana and the childish simple minded views fostered all about that as well. the views they spread are derelict and that's why the creation of all the problems with such things have been empowered due to ignorance.
Look at the advancement in medical Marijuana, no one is going to get high on such or hooked on such at all, I know a mate who has smoked dope for 36years big time and gave it all up easy as, but it's giving up the fags that has him really truly battling with he said.

I am for licencing good healthy Marijuana, such can make people accountable and it wipes out all the criminal element and the lacing done by morons.
I am all for the next Generation Nuclear power plants as they are the biggest advancement in the worlds history so far, yet this is all hidden from Australians by law, nothing to be seen here everyone ! go back to sleep with your backwards solar toxic crap, yet the clowns do not inform you of that toxic wast and all that just does not add up to be so great as we are led to believe, it's a great rip off and the cunning behind it all is massive criminal intent over the people. it will one day be seen for being a crime that it truly is in ripping off the people.
Cheap good power or crap rip off power that Australian company's can not compete. we are on the cards in the future in becoming a 3rd world backwater.

They have sold enough guns this past year alone for everyone to have one...so for that reason I'm just not a fan for personal reasons. I'm not against guns...just the sheer volume of them.
Marijuana laws are so strict that every grower pays so much in in fines that there's never enough room for profit. Not to mention the high cost of the growing rooms. These rooms are as clean as computer chip manufacturers and the electrics required for fans, heat, lights and water are over the top expensive.

Then...

Nuclear power is one of the most expensive forms of power generation there is. It requires a huge amount of fresh water. And in Australia water is a very limited resource.
The uranium rods that fuel nuclear power requires the most expensive element on the planet. Gold and platinum only wish they cost that much. And considering how cheap natural gas is in your neighborhood...it's a much better alternative. I agree with you that solar power only makes PRC wealthy (buying photovoltaic panels) while producing practically no power. Their only benefit is in carbon credits... like how Tesla makes their money...it isn't like Tesla actually makes cars for a profit.

 

[JohnDB]

Well today I tried a different tactic than I had in the past.

Now the last time I was any sort of an active trader it was in the mid '80's and Microsoft was just beginning to emerge. We did things with paper and pencil and calculator. We didn't have the internet...we had a form of keeping instant track but it was expensive...and you didn't do it from your house.
You could "day trade" but those seats cost a lot of money per day.
And you actually worked with others to collectively pool your money and research trades. Then you made phone calls to a broker and placed the orders. It worked...the most you could reasonably do was two stocks. To gather and research all that the companies had generated in the news.

Now...
I can Google and evaluate everything available in about 30 minutes.

So with the markets closed yesterday I made some hay...

And today I took positions in about 10 different stocks.
I trimmed it back some as two were gambling and I paid the price for it.
And if it weren't for those two I'd have been really up today... after hours I'm looking even better.

 

[Reggie Belafonte]

They have sold enough guns this past year alone for everyone to have one...so for that reason I'm just not a fan for personal reasons. I'm not against guns...just the sheer volume of them.
Marijuana laws are so strict that every grower pays so much in in fines that there's never enough room for profit. Not to mention the high cost of the growing rooms. These rooms are as clean as computer chip manufacturers and the electrics required for fans, heat, lights and water are over the top expensive.

Then...

Nuclear power is one of the most expensive forms of power generation there is. It requires a huge amount of fresh water. And in Australia water is a very limited resource.
The uranium rods that fuel nuclear power requires the most expensive element on the planet. Gold and platinum only wish they cost that much. And considering how cheap natural gas is in your neighborhood...it's a much better alternative. I agree with you that solar power only makes PRC wealthy (buying photovoltaic panels) while producing practically no power. Their only benefit is in carbon credits... like how Tesla makes their money...it isn't like Tesla actually makes cars for a profit.

One should never grow dope under lights for a start regardless or even smoke such as that grown under lights at all, very bad and a big no no it has been proven to be, the plants need to have natural sunlight to produce the right product.

Gas yes and no, one could go on with all that could involve till the cows come home.

Water is not a problem with Nuclear in Australia as we can use sea water processed as we do in SEQ and wast water as well, the idiots are trying to make us think that it's ok to drink treated wast water now for some years.
We use water for Coal fired power so what's the difference.
We have Gas coming out of the ground in nature, I have seen such my self poring out of the ground and I have come across the smell of gas coming out of the ground for years in one spot driving out to a uncles place and other spots as well the same at times not to mention many places that the coal is on fire under the ground and the less rain you get then it fires up more so flames come out of the ground a foot high at times just up the road.

Nuclear power is cheap over all they have 99 ones in the USA, but Australia has more Coal than you can poke a stick at so sure it's cheaper for us to use coal. I have lived close to the coal fired plants and there is no smell no smoke poring out of them, we get way more sulphur smell coming from out of the ground nature wise than we did with the coal fired stations.

Them 99 Nuclear plants in the USA are backward dangerous total crap tec, shocking backward 3ed world rubbish.
The latest Nuclear plants are magic, look at the latest problem in Japan, if that was a Gen 2 Nuclear power plant there would not of been a problem at all with it, they are that safe.
The greenies should be baking on and on about they old type Nuclear power plants to get rid of them, but they don't do they, ask yourself why, well they are like watermelons green on the outside but Communist Red on the inside and that's why the Greens Party's are the biggest idiots of all not to mention they cause a lot of damage because they are all such simple minded idiots.
I am a environmentalist myself but I do not swallow all the BS that the so called Greens peddle with their Communist agendas, talk to any greenie and they are like, yes we have to wipe out the majority of the worlds population to save mother earth. but do they put their hand up to willingly die for the cause ? no they want to take charge and dictate who does die, or who they are going to kill. typical of such Socialist ding bats, not to mention they are serious.

 

[JohnDB]

One should never grow dope under lights for a start regardless or even smoke such as that grown under lights at all, very bad and a big no no it has been proven to be, the plants need to have natural sunlight to produce the right product.

Gas yes and no, one could go on with all that could involve till the cows come home.

Water is not a problem with Nuclear in Australia as we can use sea water processed as we do in SEQ and wast water as well, the idiots are trying to make us think that it's ok to drink treated wast water now for some years.
We use water for Coal fired power so what's the difference.
We have Gas coming out of the ground in nature, I have seen such my self poring out of the ground and I have come across the smell of gas coming out of the ground for years in one spot driving out to a uncles place and other spots as well the same at times not to mention many places that the coal is on fire under the ground and the less rain you get then it fires up more so flames come out of the ground a foot high at times just up the road.

Nuclear power is cheap over all they have 99 ones in the USA, but Australia has more Coal than you can poke a stick at so sure it's cheaper for us to use coal. I have lived close to the coal fired plants and there is no smell no smoke poring out of them, we get way more sulphur smell coming from out of the ground nature wise than we did with the coal fired stations.

Them 99 Nuclear plants in the USA are backward dangerous total crap tec, shocking backward 3ed world rubbish.
The latest Nuclear plants are magic, look at the latest problem in Japan, if that was a Gen 2 Nuclear power plant there would not of been a problem at all with it, they are that safe.
The greenies should be baking on and on about they old type Nuclear power plants to get rid of them, but they don't do they, ask yourself why, well they are like watermelons green on the outside but Communist Red on the inside and that's why the Greens Party's are the biggest idiots of all not to mention they cause a lot of damage because they are all such simple minded idiots.
I am a environmentalist myself but I do not swallow all the BS that the so called Greens peddle with their Communist agendas, talk to any greenie and they are like, yes we have to wipe out the majority of the worlds population to save mother earth. but do they put their hand up to willingly die for the cause ? no they want to take charge and dictate who does die, or who they are going to kill. typical of such Socialist ding bats, not to mention they are serious.

Japan's problems came about because of the earthquake and then a lack of water...so they had to use seawater to keep it from exploding. Seawater turns into acid and makes the generation plant unusable afterwards.

USA likes it's old reactors because they can be used to make plutonium and other isotopes.

France does most of the reprocessing of spent cores. They are super expensive too.

Coal or gas fired generation plants are the cheapest way to make electricity. Yellow Coal (usually unusable) can even be turned into diesel and used in that fashion... making it roughly cost around $75/US barrel.

 

[JohnDB]

Bitcoin is really up...
Over 51K.

I don't get it...
The transactions using it are down.
This smells like another pump and dump.

And I know that if I was a retailer using Bitcoin as a medium of exchange I would have to include a hefty service charge for it's use. $25 bill becomes at least a $30-35 bill if Bitcoin was used....sure it's up now, but I don't want to lose that value when converting it to cash to pay suppliers or staff.

A Bitcoin may be trading for 51K this morning but it was only 45K last week. What's it going to be next week? Up or down?
And a medium of exchange is only good if someone else will accept it.

I can't use Aussie dollars in america until I get them exchanged... same thing with American dollars in Australia.
And when the power goes out or batteries are dead... bitcoins are worthless. Hard drives get accidentally reformatted...and again there goes a wallet.
Lean against a wall mounted speaker and there goes your phone, thumb drive or whatever you held your Bitcoin.

I get the allure of a hedge against inflation...but the other risks are more extreme.

 

[JohnDB]

Wow...
Today hurt my feelings...NOT.

I knew I was gonna lose big today...
I have a lot of money in Tech stocks...as well as other positions.

Semiconductors lost big today but started to make a comeback towards the end of the day.
So since I had some cash...I bought the dip.

There still is a shortage of chips that hasn't gone away and isn't going away anytime soon.
China is still the largest producer of the Silicon we need to produce the chips. Taiwan makes chips out of PRC silicon...So does Intel, and AMD and Invidia and so many others. Russia makes some, Brazil makes some, and so does Norway?
Right now the main issue is that Taiwan makes the best chips...intel used to...but it is going to have some real issues with the best of the best chips. It is going to have to buy them from Taiwan.

Which brings us to the whole issue. PRC wants Taiwan back...they exiled all those Christian capitalists out there on the Island...and now that Island can buy the mainland. And that upsets PRC. They want Taiwan's money...Taiwan doesn't want to give it up.
Then there is Hong Kong....right next to the PRC's "Silicon Valley" (Its actually in Beijing's province) They want PRC to stop telling them what to do...
There's a huge mess going on in China right now on the world stage...everyone is upset with them except for that one place in Africa that got all those free vaccines from China. (can't recall)

Otherwise trade relations with China are strained at the moment. And that is not helping with the chip shortage for cars, telecom, household electronics, and etc. And we keep coming up with new items to put those little chips in...

I know how to do a lot of it with ice cube relays...but one little chip can do the same work as a whole bedroom full of ice cube relays.
Even electric cars require computer chips...

somebody better figure it out.

Does China need to sell silicon more than we need to buy it?

I don't know what the solution is...but someone needs to come up with one.

 

[JohnDB]

Been a rough couple of days for those trading and investing.

This is why we do due diligence.

Sure there are sympathetic swings.
But if you can understand that the lights aren't going out in Walmart anytime soon...

That people gotta eat, use computers, and wear clothing...

A call for calm. The good choices will recover. CCIV probably won't.
SPACS won't...they are gone.

Sure growth stocks have done much better than value stocks over the past decade.

But you do have to have some kind of value.

Financial sector stocks haven't really budged during this whole correction. Some have even made gains.

And I'm sure that the FED is starting to wonder if free money in lending is such a good idea. Inflation rumors...are beginning.
(Like Bitcoin really needs any help)

Bitcoin fell 20% today.
It's great going up...not so good going down.

Volatility in stocks is great...money valuation is not. If you don't have a stable medium of exchange... you don't have a medium of exchange.

 

[JohnDB]

And this morning some stocks are up...

The ones in tech that are considered more of value plays in those areas are definitely up.
Although they still have ridiculous p/e ratios of outrageous numbers. But ones like MXL and MU are definitely up today. Probably going to stay that way too. MXL has EPS. For a chipmaker that's something odd. Usually they don't.
Same thing with MU...
Again...these companies usually lag the others. They aren't glamorous with 40-70% gains overnight. But today when everyone is crying over losing half their portfolios...I'm not. Yeah I'm down... but nowhere near what others are.

And I'm somewhat glad some of the borrowed money is disappearing from the market. (50% on equities and 90% on futures and options) I like cash. It's much cheaper and easier. No fees for it's use either.
If you win it's all yours...if you lose you lost but aren't OB and in debt as well.

And financials haven't really been down much either...hard to tell. They grow so slow.
But it appears that they are up today too. Visa certainly was. So is SONA. (Bank of virginia)
Good stocks, good valuations, solid business models...these are what separates glamour stocks traders from the ones that will be around after a while. And if spraying and praying doesn't work with bullets it doesn't work with stocks either. (Talking about diversification)

 

[JohnDB]

Another solid day of gains...
Well, for some stocks.

Some of those glamorous stocks...big names have lost so much lately that they might be affordable today. MSFT is just about ready to be purchased. It's lost a lot of money lately. Almost ready to be bought and ridden up again. And it won't be just for the software. Clouds and other stuff involving making chips...might be time to look at it.

In the meantime I'm happy with the guys in Boise (MU) who make memories and MXL. (Chips in gadgets) .
Financials are creeping along nicely too.
Oil is up so much lately...no real reason for it except "irrational exuberance". We ain't out yet... soon but not yet.
I know they have a battery powered plane...but it isn't in service yet. Neither are the electric busses or trucks. They are something they put on the lots to look good for a PR shoot. Getting months of service out of them? Day in and day out? Probably not going to happen.

Glamour stocks...pump and dump the lot of them. Tesla doesn't really make cars for profit. He makes a few so he can buy Bitcoin and sell carbon credits to the other car makers.
Remember when he tossed the steel ball at the car and the window smashed? And the quarter panels that he can't seem to bend without breaking. (Like everyone said would be an issue)
Teslas are ugly cars that don't work as advertised. Pure and simple.
Right now carmakers are trying their best to figure out how to make and sell zero emissions cars. They are having a difficult time of it too. Better battery technology is needed...and there's a ton of money being poured into it. From recycling the lithium batteries to other technology...they haven't figured out anything yet. Fuel cell tech seems to be better somewhat. Just about double to triple the mileage for vehicles. Trucks get @ 20/mpg...fuel cells make it around 48-50/mpg for the same truck. (And an electric motor)
But the platinum is going to be the real problem. It's definitely going to deplete it.

 

[mailmandan]

I've been invested in the TSP at the Post Office my entire career and sometimes I kick myself for not being more aggressive in investing. I have made some decent gains in interest over the years and I surpassed my minimum amount needed to have a comfortable retirement when I retire, but when I talk to certain people who were more aggressive in investing (although they took a big hit in 2008 and it took them 10 years to recover) I'm amazed to find out just how much some of them have saved up, although most don't have those large amounts saved up. I read where the average postal worker under FERS retirement only had around $160,000 saved up in their TSP in 2019 when retiring. I feel like if you don't have at lest $250,000 saved up in TSP over 30 years then you didn't really try that hard at all. $300,000-$500,000 is a more desirable goal. Over $500,000 even better!

 

[JohnDB]

I've been invested in the TSP at the Post Office my entire career and sometimes I kick myself for not being more aggressive in investing. I have made some decent gains in interest over the years and I surpassed my minimum amount needed to have a comfortable retirement when I retire, but when I talk to certain people who were more aggressive in investing (although they took a big hit in 2008 and it took them 10 years to recover) I'm amazed to find out just how much some of them have saved up, although most don't have those large amounts saved up. I read where the average postal worker under FERS retirement only had around $160,000 saved up in 2019 when retiring. I feel like if you don't have at lest $250,000 saved up in TSP over 30 years then you didn't really try that hard at all. $300,000-$500,000 is a more desirable goal. Over $500,000 even better!

Actually if you want to retire comfortable until you die you probably need closer to a million. That way you can live off solely the earnings every year. And if any major medical events happen (like they will) then you won't be eaten alive by the bills.

Huge difference between the nice retirement and assisted living centers and the social security/medicare centers. Just saying... you really don't want to go to the discount places in retirement.

Yes, you really need to be a lot more aggressive in planning for retirement. You can set up a self directed ROTH IRA that grows and get drawn on tax free. No capital gains or income taxes ever. (For proper withdrawals) $60 month is cheap...
But 15% returns or better completely tax free can really help when you no longer can earn money. Your savings can work for you for a change.

Dog Days of retirement mean you have to eat alpo dog food because you can't afford to eat regular food. There are lots of things worse than dying young. Dog Days of retirement is one of them.

 

[mailmandan]

Actually if you want to retire comfortable until you die you probably need closer to a million. That way you can live off solely the earnings every year. And if any major medical events happen (like they will) then you won't be eaten alive by the bills.

Huge difference between the nice retirement and assisted living centers and the social security/medicare centers. Just saying... you really don't want to go to the discount places in retirement.

Yes, you really need to be a lot more aggressive in planning for retirement. You can set up a self directed ROTH IRA that grows and get drawn on tax free. No capital gains or income taxes ever. (For proper withdrawals) $60 month is cheap...
But 15% returns or better completely tax free can really help when you no longer can earn money. Your savings can work for you for a change.

Dog Days of retirement mean you have to eat alpo dog food because you can't afford to eat regular food. There are lots of things worse than dying young. Dog Days of retirement is one of them.

I’m not completely depending on my TSP. I will also have an annuity from the Post Office, along with Social Security plus my wife has a 403B along with an annuity from the school district and Social Security. We’ll also have the house paid off. I was contemplating options on rolling my TSP account into a different fund after I retire to earn better interest. Thanks for the info on the Roth IRA.