ON ELECTION DAY 2016 posters said Hillary WOULD WIN 93% FOR SURE=ROFL!!
Huh? I followed the polls then. The polls were quite accurate. The people who thought they could predict the outcome using national polls were poorly informed. If the outcome had been decided by the national number of votes, Hillary would have won. She got more votes than Trump; but she didn't campaign enough in key states.
Things are different now with Biden ahead of Trump in six states Trump won in 2016: Ohio (by a small number), North Carolina, Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan. That one poll in Arizona showing Trump ahead by 4% is an outlier, and it was a rather small poll too thus with a higher margin of error than other polls.
Trump's lead in other states is also less than it was in 2016. He could lose other states he won in 2016 if he loses more supporters. He's ahead in Iowa by a whisker, 1.5%. (These numbers are averages of polls I get at RCP.) He's ahead by 2.5% in Texas (that average includes the poll where he was ahead by 4%.) And he's ahead in Georgia by only 4.3%.
In the red states where loss of support won't hurt him, Trump's support is an average of 11.8% less than it was in 2016. He'll still win in those states but with smaller numbers of votes. In battleground states, his support is down 6.1%, and in blue states only 2.9%. It's the battleground states that matter, of course.
My estimate of votes in the electoral college if the election were held today: Biden 346, Trump 185. Those numbers can change. I expect them to change; but Trump has a long haul in front of him to change that many minds. Particularly troubling for Republicans is how the coronavirus has been mishandled in so many Republican states. I was surprized when the people of Oklahoma voted to expand Medicaid.
While Trump continues to try to kill Obamacare, the people in Oklahoma finally said, "Enough is enough." They voted to to allow Medicaid to be expanded in their state. Their Republican politicians were afraid to do it.
Oklahoma Votes For Medicaid Expansion Over Objections Of Republican State Leaders
Voters in Oklahoma narrowly approved a ballot measure Tuesday night to expand Medicaid to eligible adults who need health insurance. Oklahoma is now the 37th state to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act; coverage will begin a year from now, on July 1, 2021.
Based on the final unofficial count, the measure passed with just over a 6,000-vote margin — less than one full percentage point.
Medicaid expansion was a key provision of the Affordable Care Act, but a Supreme Court ruling made it optional and left the decision up to each state. Medicaid is a public health insurance program for the poor, with states splitting the cost with the federal government.
Historically, Medicaid mostly covered low-income children and people with disabilities, but the Affordable Care Act allows states to expand access to Medicaid to uninsured adults who earn up to 138% of the federal poverty level. As an inducement, the federal government shoulders 90% of the cost of those newly-covered adults.
In Oklahoma, Medicaid expansion will likely help drive down the state's 14% uninsured rate, the second highest in the nation after Texas. It's estimated that at least 200,000 Oklahomans will be newly eligible for Medicaid, with enrollment potentially climbing even higher as millions lose their jobs amid the pandemic.
Chalk up another win for Obama, this time in the very red state of Oklahoma. Trump's response to this pandemic? End Obamacare!
Obamacare Must 'Fall,' Trump Administration Tells Supreme Court
In a filing with the U.S. Supreme Court, the Trump administration has reaffirmed its position that the Affordable Care Act in its entirety is illegal because Congress eliminated the individual tax penalty for failing to purchase medical insurance.
Solicitor General Noel Francisco, the government's chief advocate before the Supreme Court, said in a brief that the other provisions of Obamacare are impossible to separate from the individual mandate and that "it necessarily follows that the rest of the ACA must also fall."
Shortly after the brief appeared on the court's docket late Thursday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said in a statement: "President Trump and the Republicans' campaign to rip away the protections and benefits of the Affordable Care Act in the middle of the coronavirus crisis is an act of unfathomable cruelty."
In a speech on the lawsuit Thursday, former Vice President Joe Biden said he was proud of the ACA and denounced the administration's position. "It's cruel, it's heartless, and it's callous," he said.
Trump doesn't have to worry about losing Oklahoma, but Texas is another matter. As noted above, it has the highest rate of people who are lacking health insurance. It also has a very high rate of people needing hospitalization for coronavirus. It wouldn't surprise me then if Trump lost Texas. If enough people get sick and blame him and the Republicans for the lack of healthcare, he could lose Texas. How did Trump's promise to replace Obamacare go? He had a Republican House and Senate, and they still couldn't get it done. Expect to see this in Biden ads.
How much of what comes out of Trump's mouth can be believed? It seems the people in Oklahoma gave up on his promise to deliver "insurance for everybody." They voted for Obamacare.
