Who do you think will win Trump or Biden or Kanye?

[Giuliano]

This point of view does risk another JFK style shooting though.

Some crazy guy was just arrested with a van full of guns and explosives. He had been researching how to kill Biden. Not your typical Republican since he was also into Islam and child porn. I couldn't figure out what his problem was.

Story here: Man arrested in Kannapolis with van full of guns and explosives, researched killing Joe Biden

My congratulations again to law enforcement.

 

[Bobby Jo]

HERE'S A FASCINATING HONEST LOOK at the "60 Minutes" FAKE MEDIA DISHONESTY:

Unfounded ACCUSATIONS, persistent ASSAULTS, denials of DOCUMENTED EVENTS, -- all while under the influence of TDS (TRUMP DERANGEMENT SYNDROME).


I tell you, this woman comes across as an unhinged crazy lunatic, and it's not even a FULL MOON ... but Trump gives her EVERY OPPORTUNITY to "come back to earth". It's as though she's held captive by dark spiritual forces, which no doubt she is, and it's too bad.

It's no wonder that satan himself will have to come out of the pit to deal with this President and Vice President, because his myriad of minions are incapable by themselves. (Rev. 11)
Bobby Jo

 

[Josho]

So should I bet on Trump winning?

I saw that one of the betting companies were paying $2.60 for Trump to win, I might just x2.6 my money. What do you all think? I mean surely it must be good investment right?

 

[JohnDB]

So should I bet on Trump winning?

I saw that one of the betting companies were paying $2.60 for Trump to win, I might just x2.6 my money. What do you all think? I mean surely it must be good investment right?

This happens every election year.
It is an incorporated stock created out of a pool of money.
Then it's traded on the exchange. Because the winning side gets the whole pool to divide amongst the shareholders.
So you buy either Biden stock or Trump stock.
It's a game and gamble...

 

[Giuliano]

No armed guards in Minnesota? Nope. The "security company" from Tennessee that ran ads trying to hire ex-special forces agreed to call it all off.

Tennessee company cancels plan to recruit armed guards for Minnesota polls

The Tennessee-based company that advertised for ex-Special Forces members to serve as armed guards at Minnesota polling places on Nov. 3 has told the Minnesota Attorney General’s Office that it is rescinding its recruitment for the positions.

Attorney General Keith Ellison launched a probe into Atlas Aegis on Tuesday, the same day that a pair of local advocacy groups filed federal lawsuits in response to ads placed by the company seeking to hire armed guards for the “protection of election polls” in Minnesota.

In a settlement reached Friday, Atlas Aegis agreed that it will not provide security services in Minnesota around the time of the election — effectively through Jan. 1. The company also agreed to provide public notification that it was wrong to suggest that it was recruiting armed guards at Minnesota polling places, which would have violated the state’s election laws.
​

It seems someone at Atlas Aegis lied in their court filing. Who is Anthony Caudle?

According to the court filing, Atlas Aegis learned of the job openings through two industry contacts, Florida-based 5326 Consultants and 10-Code, neither of which mentioned polling place security. Yet when Atlas Aegis advertised the jobs in its network, it added that the scope of the work included providing security “to protect election polls.”

The Washington Post reported on the post earlier this month in a story in which Atlas Aegis Chairman Anthony Caudle again said that the work involved guarding the polls and making “sure that the antifas don’t try to destroy the election sites.” Caudle also suggested erroneously that Minnesota election officials and law enforcement were aware that armed civilians planned to guard polling places.

Atlas Aegis now notes that those statements were incorrect and that it did not intend to intimidate or threaten Minnesota voters or poll workers. In Friday’s court filing, the company also said it was not aware of any other individuals or groups planning to provide private security at poll sites in Minnesota.
​

 

[Giuliano]

Ouch! Obama's at it again, mocking Trump.

'You ain't all that tough': Obama mocks Trump over 60 Minutes interview

Speaking during a campaign rally supporting Democratic nominee Joe Biden in South Florida on Saturday, Obama jabbed Trump over the interview with host Lesley Stahl, footage of which Trump preemptively shared this week after accusing the reporter and the network of unfairly attacking him throughout the meeting.

"When 60 Minutes and Lesley Stahl are too tough for you, you ain't all that tough," Obama said. "If you got to walk out of a 60 Minutes interview, then you're never going to stand up to a dictator," added Obama as a flurry of cars honked at the socially distanced event.​

 

[Seven of Nine]

Ouch! Obama's at it again, mocking Trump.

'You ain't all that tough': Obama mocks Trump over 60 Minutes interview

Speaking during a campaign rally supporting Democratic nominee Joe Biden in South Florida on Saturday, Obama jabbed Trump over the interview with host Lesley Stahl, footage of which Trump preemptively shared this week after accusing the reporter and the network of unfairly attacking him throughout the meeting.

"When 60 Minutes and Lesley Stahl are too tough for you, you ain't all that tough," Obama said. "If you got to walk out of a 60 Minutes interview, then you're never going to stand up to a dictator," added Obama as a flurry of cars honked at the socially distanced event.​

I didn't watch his interview with Lesley Stahl. I can't bring myself to watch him on TV or listen to his speeches because he makes me nauseated. I was wondering if he called her 'nasty.' Apparently 'nasty' is one of his favorite go-to catch phrase to insult women and other people too.

The Many People Donald Trump Has Called 'Nasty' (and It's Not Just Women)

 

[JohnDB]

Well,
Two weeks out from the election and the polls look identical to 2016...
Trump is gaining ground. The shift after the last debate is definitely swinging towards Trump.

The high volume of voting usually favors the Democrats...but they have already voted by mail.
Trump supporters vote in person. Early voting and in person voting bodes well for Trump and the lines are extremely long.

So it's going to come down to every last vote in battle ground states...every last single vote.

Usually in an election each side has a "blue dog" contingent and a "leaning" section. This counts up to 80% of registered voters. Apathy usually takes out the "leaning" and the undecided middle makes up its mind and votes in the president.

So it usually requires a hefty "get out the vote" campaign to win an election...

Usually this is vans and busses that pick up groups of people and takes them to the polls.

For Democrats they give these people food and cigarettes...

Republicans hand out coupons for restaurants, bars, and gun ranges.

But in this pandemic things are a bit different.

No mass transportation this time is allowed.

Democrats have prioritized mail in voting successfully which usually goes to the Republicans who are usually busy and do absentee ballots. (Military service and trips abroad)

So...this race will be tight. It's going to be extremely close.

Probably a return of the Bush/Gore election court battles all over again. Supreme Court hearings included.

By the point that we actually know who is president we are going to be extremely fatigued about it all if you aren't already.

 

[Giuliano]

I didn't watch his interview with Lesley Stahl. I can't bring myself to watch him on TV or listen to his speeches because he makes me nauseated. I was wondering if he called her 'nasty.' Apparently 'nasty' is one of his favorite go-to catch phrase to insult women and other people too.

The Many People Donald Trump Has Called 'Nasty' (and It's Not Just Women)

I didn't see it myself and wasn't really interested. I found Obama's quip amusing though since it seemed to me he was mocking how Trump often puts down women as if that makes him so tough -- and there he was, running away from a woman. Stahl was just too tough for him.

 

[Giuliano]

Well,
Two weeks out from the election and the polls look identical to 2016...

They don't look like the polls in 2016 to me. I think I could find what I wrote before that election: While I expected Clinton to win, I knew it wasn't a sure thing. If Trump could turn out the vote in Florida and Pennsylvania, I figured he'd win.

Trump could still win Florida with good turnout. I can't see a chance in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota or Wisconsin. Biden is either over the magic 50% mark or at the 49% mark.

Trump is gaining ground.

Not that I can see; and I'm following state polls as well as the national ones. Trump is perilously close to losing Georgia.

 

[JohnDB]

They don't look like the polls in 2016 to me. I think I could find what I wrote before that election: While I expected Clinton to win, I knew it wasn't a sure thing. If Trump could turn out the vote in Florida and Pennsylvania, I figured he'd win.

Trump could still win Florida with good turnout. I can't see a chance in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota or Wisconsin. Biden is either over the magic 50% mark or at the 49% mark.
Not that I can see; and I'm following state polls as well as the national ones. Trump is perilously close to losing Georgia.

They are inside the margin of error in all the battleground states...and they were horribly wrong last time.

They knew 20 years ago going in that polling had to be done differently but they don't really have another way of doing it.

Apparently republicans don't answer the phone and answer polls.

The markup on every poll was getting more and more every year for registered conservatives.

And in 2016 they practically stopped answering the phone altogether.

That's why the poll margins have increased so much...the more guestimates the higher the error factor.
From 3% to 4% and now 5%.

 

[Bobby Jo]

The following may change EVERYTHING we might have anticipated:

Huge scandal brewing over revealed contents of Joe Biden’s son’s laptop
Huge scandal brewing over revealed contents of Joe Biden’s son’s laptop Post #64


【三个硬盘】 Sept.24th Lude's broadcast: 3 hard drives, provided 3 hard drives to the DOJ of America

If true, the implications may overwhelm our ability to conceive what future events might unfold.
Bobby Jo

 

[Giuliano]

They are inside the margin of error in all the battleground states...and they were horribly wrong last time.

They knew 20 years ago going in that polling had to be done differently but they don't really have another way of doing it.

I thought the polls were fairly accurate in 2016. It was what the pundits on tv made of them that misled people. The pundits on tv focused on the national polls, and those don't matter that much.

It is a constant struggle for pollsters to adapt to changes in communication. Land line versus cell phones caused problems.

Apparently republicans don't answer the phone and answer polls.

So the Republicans are saying. I remember when PPP was messing things up big time. They were estimating how many Democrats and how many Republicans should be answering their phones. They based their estimate on voter registration, I think. If they got a different number of Democrats and Republicans, they tinkered with the figures. For example, if they thought they got 10% fewer Democrats, they'd multiply those results by 1.1 trying to correct. If they thought too many Republicans were answering, they'd multiply the results by 0.9.

At any rate, that year their polls were horribly different from other polling companies; and they consistently had the Democrats doing better than the other polls. Along came the election, and PPP was crushed. It was connected with the Democratic Party; but at that point, even the Democrats wanted nothing to do with it. Why pay them money to get such wrong results?

When they revised how they did things, their results got much better. They became one of the more reliable polling companies.

Rasmussen has consistently over the years tilted their polls to Republicans. It's not as bad as PPP's tilting to Democrats; but it's still there.

The markup on every poll was getting more and more every year for registered conservatives.

And in 2016 they practically stopped answering the phone altogether.

That's why the poll margins have increased so much...the more guestimates the higher the error factor.
From 3% to 4% and now 5%.

I saw someone from Trafalgar was trying to explain their methodology. They start off with an assumption of a "silent majority" which doesn't want to talk about how they vote. They aren't really polling people -- they're assuming the people are out there and that they can predict how they'll vote. Their results this year are very different from the other polls.

I think they got lucky in 2016 when they were using this same method of assuming there was a silent majority. I say that because Trafalgar accurately predicted Trump would win in Pennsylvania and Florida. I don't see it. I give credit to Kellyanne Conway who headed up the Trump campaign for making sure his voters were excited by the election and went out to vote. The Clinton campaign was taking things for granted; they didn't work too much on getting out the votes. Clinton herself didn't bother to campaign that much in states she should have paid more attention to. I think the Democrats also took the black vote for granted. Many blacks had registered so they could vote for Obama; and turn out among blacks was high because they were excited to be voting for a black candidate. A lot of blacks weren't that enthusiastic in 2016; and they figured Clinton would win without their vote anyway.

I doubt many polling companies will go back to going door to door or even to having real people on the phones. They resort to robocalls. I tend to hang up on robocalls. I don't know if older or younger people are more apt to hang up on robocalls.

I think Trafalgar will wind up with egg on its face since I think voter enthusiasm is the more important factor. Biden may be ahead in the polls, and more Democrats have already voted by mail; but the Biden campaign knows they have to work to get out the vote. His supporters are not as wound up as Trump's. That could affect the outcome in a few states; but it won't be enough to get Trump to 270 electoral votes.

Notice how Republicans are trying to make it harder to vote in some places. That could backfire since Democrats can say Republicans are trying to suppress the vote, making Democrats want to vote even more. Republicans can talk about their having a silent majority; but if they did, why would they be trying to make it harder for some people to vote?

But we will see.

 

[Giuliano]

Why hasn't Trump got a dog? Who runs for President without a dog? It's downright unamerican.

 

[Giuliano]

Some interesting polls showed up today. Someone finally did a poll in South Dakota where Trump won in 2016 by 29.8%. He is currently ahead of Biden (to be sure, after all it is South Dakota) but by 11%. That's a loss of 18.8% in support.

Two polls showed up for Texas. Senator Cornyn seems set to win re-election; but the presidential race continues to get closer. The Dallas Morning News has Biden ahead by 3% while Quinnipiac shows them tied. Trump had been running on average about 4.4% ahead of Biden; now the average has slipped to 2.6%.

QU Poll Release Detail

Today, Trump and Biden are tied 47 - 47 percent among likely voters. This compares to a September 24th poll of likely voters in Texas when Trump had 50 percent and Biden had 45 percent.

Among those who will vote in person on Election Day, 62 percent support Trump and 32 percent support Biden.

Among those who are voting by mail or absentee ballot, 63 percent say they support Biden and 31 percent support Trump.

Among those who are voting at an early voting location, 48 percent support Biden and 46 percent support Trump.

"Biden and Trump find themselves in a Texas stand-off, setting the stage for a bare knuckle battle for 38 electoral votes," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
​

As tight as the race is, you can see how Republicans must make sure they get out the vote on election day since about two thirds of the people who say they will vote in person favor Trump. Of course, they could also try to suppress voting in strongly Democratic areas.

 

[JohnDB]

Some interesting polls showed up today. Someone finally did a poll in South Dakota where Trump won in 2016 by 29.8%. He is currently ahead of Biden (to be sure, after all it is South Dakota) but by 11%. That's a loss of 18.8% in support.

Two polls showed up for Texas. Senator Cornyn seems set to win re-election; but the presidential race continues to get closer. The Dallas Morning News has Biden ahead by 3% while Quinnipiac shows them tied. Trump had been running on average about 4.4% ahead of Biden; now the average has slipped to 2.6%.

QU Poll Release Detail

Today, Trump and Biden are tied 47 - 47 percent among likely voters. This compares to a September 24th poll of likely voters in Texas when Trump had 50 percent and Biden had 45 percent.

Among those who will vote in person on Election Day, 62 percent support Trump and 32 percent support Biden.

Among those who are voting by mail or absentee ballot, 63 percent say they support Biden and 31 percent support Trump.

Among those who are voting at an early voting location, 48 percent support Biden and 46 percent support Trump.

"Biden and Trump find themselves in a Texas stand-off, setting the stage for a bare knuckle battle for 38 electoral votes," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
​

As tight as the race is, you can see how Republicans must make sure they get out the vote on election day since about two thirds of the people who say they will vote in person favor Trump. Of course, they could also try to suppress voting in strongly Democratic areas.

As close as this race is...every single vote counts. About half or better of the polls show Biden carrying Texas currently...which doesn't seem likely...

 

[bukka]

As close as this race is...every single vote counts. About half or better of the polls show Biden carrying Texas currently...which doesn't seem likely...

I didn't know, JohnDB, that Biden was so close in Texas. I knew that Texas was politically changing. I suppose, in four or eight years, it will be another Democratic state.

 

[JohnDB]

I didn't know, JohnDB, that Biden was so close in Texas. I knew that Texas was politically changing. I suppose, in four or eight years, it will be another Democratic state.

Hispanic population is not intristicly Democratic...
Black population might be 80% or better Democrat.

So there's no telling what will happen.

 

[bukka]

Hispanic population is not intristicly Democratic...
Black population might be 80% or better Democrat.

So there's no telling what will happen.

I agree, JohnDB. We shall see ...

 

[Giuliano]

As close as this race is...every single vote counts. About half or better of the polls show Biden carrying Texas currently...which doesn't seem likely...

I was expecting Texas to flip in maybe four or eight years if the current trends continue.

George P. Bush is Land Commissioner in Texas. I found his views about how the Republican Party needs to become more inclusive very interesting. His mother (who had been First Lady in Florida) was born in Mexico -- and he speaks Spanish fluently.