Changing Phases Of The Economic Crash

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Randy Kluth

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I would.

If I had to do it all over again, one thing I'd do better is take better care of my teeth. With enough money you can fix anything these days, but it costs a flying fortune.

I just got back from the dentist a few hours ago. I didn't think they could fix anything left.

Instead, they upped the teeth cleaning bill, made sure I required "deep cleaning," and called for me to increase visits from 6 months to 3 months--both for my wife and me.

After insurance we still paid vastly more than normal. Being toothless may sound funny, but it's looking as if it could be more normal to me now. ;)

... I'm glad I still have *most* of my teeth, including my wisdom teeth! ;)
 
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Hidden In Him

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You can also buy rolls of 50 dimes it’s a little over 3 1/2 half Troy ounces and $5 face value. It would probably cost about $125. They would be small enough to trade and barter with for smaller food items or gas if it ever comes to that


Not sure that would work in the US, Marty. Maybe in Israel where bartering is more normal on the streets still, but most of the "bartering" done here is more like just exchanging food between friends and family. I see that taking place already, but that's about it.
 

Marty fox

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Not sure that would work in the US, Marty. Maybe in Israel where bartering is more normal on the streets still, but most of the "bartering" done here is more like just exchanging food between friends and family. I see that taking place already, but that's about it.

Im meaning if things went crazy and a currency collapse happened

By the way I’m up in Canada so we’re not much different from you guys
 

Hidden In Him

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By the way I’m up in Canada so we’re not much different from you guys

You mean except it's colder, yes? :cool:

Think you could send some of that cooler air down here? I'm worried I'm gonna melt.

Even my dogs are sweating.


20210714_60ee9ca80f2a2.gif
 

Marty fox

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You mean except it's colder, yes? :cool:

Think you could send some of that cooler air down here? I'm worried I'm gonna melt.

Even my dogs are sweating.


20210714_60ee9ca80f2a2.gif

All we have right now is rain Lol

I,m just outside of Vancouver B.C. Where are you?
 

bbyrd009

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You can also buy rolls of 50 dimes it’s a little over 3 1/2 half Troy ounces and $5 face value. It would probably cost about $125. They would be small enough to trade and barter with for smaller food items or gas if it ever comes to that
at a 25% premium though? yikes!
 

Hidden In Him

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We had a financial planner ask the other day, 'Will it be stagflation, or deflation, or inflation, or hyper-inflation?' And I had to look at him and tell him, 'It's going to be all of these. They are all waves on a quickly-changing economic sea, and what has worked in the past will only work for a brief period of time in this changing economic era.' (The Coming Perfect Storm, 19:27 - 20:44)

The quote at the end of the following video from Noriel Rabini is interesting in light of the above. The quote is taken from the following paragraph:

The next crisis will not be like its predecessors. In the 1970s, we had stagflation but no massive debt crises because debt levels were low. After 2008, we had a debt crisis followed by low inflation or deflation because the credit crunch had generated a negative demand shock. Today, we face supply shocks in a context of much higher debt levels, implying that we are heading for a combination of 1970s-style stagflation and 2008-style debt crises – that is, a stagflationary debt crisis.

I will post the article in its entirety in the next post for anyone interested.

 

Hidden In Him

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Stagflationary global debt crisis looms – and things will get much worse
Nouriel Roubini

There is ample reason to fear big economies such as the US face recession and financial turmoil

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Equity markets are likely to move deeper into bear territory. Photograph: Justin Lane/EPA

The global financial and economic outlook for the year ahead has soured rapidly in recent months, with policymakers, investors and households now asking how much they should revise their expectations, and for how long. That depends on the answers to six questions.

First, will the rise in inflation in most advanced economies be temporary or more persistent? This debate has raged for the past year but now it is largely settled: “Team Persistent” won, and “Team Transitory” – which previously included most central banks and fiscal authorities – must admit to having been mistaken.

The second question is whether the increase in inflation was driven more by excessive aggregate demand (loose monetary, credit, and fiscal policies) or by stagflationary negative aggregate supply shocks (including the initial Covid-19 lockdowns, supply-chain bottlenecks, a reduced US labour supply, the impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine on commodity prices, and China’s “zero-Covid” policy). While demand and supply factors were in the mix, it is now widely recognised that supply factors have played an increasingly decisive role. This matters because supply-driven inflation is stagflationary and thus raises the risk of a hard landing (increased unemployment and potentially a recession) when monetary policy is tightened.

That leads directly to the third question: will monetary-policy tightening by the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks bring a hard or soft landing? Until recently, most central banks and most of Wall Street occupied “Team Soft Landing”. But the consensus has rapidly shifted, with even the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, recognising that a recession is possible, and that a soft landing will be “very challenging”.

Moreover, a model used by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows a high probability of a hard landing, and the Bank of England has expressed similar views. Several prominent Wall Street institutions have now decided that a recession is their baseline scenario (the most likely outcome if all other variables are held constant). In the US and Europe, forward-looking indicators of economic activity and business and consumer confidence are heading sharply south.

The fourth question is whether a hard landing would weaken central banks’ hawkish resolve on inflation. If they stop their policy-tightening once a hard landing becomes likely, we can expect a persistent rise in inflation and either economic overheating (above-target inflation and above potential growth) or stagflation (above-target inflation and a recession), depending on whether demand shocks or supply shocks are dominant.

Most market analysts seem to think that central banks will remain hawkish but I am not so sure. I have argued that they will eventually wimp out and accept higher inflation – followed by stagflation – once a hard landing becomes imminent because they will be worried about the damage of a recession and a debt trap, owing to an excessive buildup of private and public liabilities after years of low interest rates.

Moreover, because today’s higher inflation is a global phenomenon, most central banks are tightening at the same time, thereby increasing the probability of a synchronised global recession. This tightening is already having an effect: bubbles are deflating everywhere – including in public and private equity, real estate, housing, meme stocks, crypto, Spacs (special purpose acquisition companies), bonds, and credit instruments. Real and financial wealth is falling, and debts and debt-servicing ratios are rising.

That brings us to the final question: will equity markets rebound from the current bear market (a decline of at least 20% from the last peak), or will they plunge even lower? Most likely, they will plunge lower. After all, in typical plain-vanilla recessions, US and global equities tend to fall by about 35%. But because the next recession will be stagflationary and accompanied by a financial crisis, the crash in equity markets could be closer to 50%.

Regardless of whether the recession is mild or severe, history suggests that the equity market has much more room to fall before it bottoms out. In the current context, any rebound – such as the one in the last two weeks – should be regarded as a dead-cat bounce, rather than the usual buy-the-dip opportunity. Though the current global situation confronts us with many questions, there is no real riddle to solve. Things will get much worse before they get better.
 

Taken

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Not completely, and thanks for the comment.

It's also prophesied that there will eventually be a completely new currency, after the dollar experiences a strong devaluation, but that is a little bit further down the road IMO. For the next few years at least (just my guestimated opinion), the dollar will still be strong enough to have purchasing power, especially during the deflationary swing.

Not much different than what people have become conditioned to...
Credit, backed by nothing of value.
Govt will control the Credit “ie numbers”.
Govt will allow “credit numbers”, for those who yield to Govt whims.
Govt will withhold “credit numbers”, for those who will NOT yield to Govt whims.

Buy and Selling will be according to how many “credit numbers” the Govt will allow an individual to have.

Have a stack of “credit numbers”, you can purchase the “scraps” the Govt allows.
Have NOT a stack of “credit numbers”, you will not be able to purchase the “scraps” the Govt would have allowed.

The “scraps”?, “limited”, food, shelter, electricity, fuel, water, other necessities and “wants”, moot, as they decide.

Wish list of some manifested, everyone equally poor, and Govt your Master Daddy.
 
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Randy Kluth

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I expect people to over-spend, including the govt., increasing debt. God gave Israel the jubilees to deal with this. The Western world simply allows inflation to increase, as long as people are able to buy what they need and want.

I thought that as long as the US maintains its political system, the govt. will not be able to run wild in its spending. Unfortunately, loyalty to the Constitution seems to be fizzling.

It reminds me of the Vietnam War disenchantment, where people lost respect for the govt., but seemed to turn Left in their politics and in their morals. Bad idea! Big govt. wants this very thing!

Since I'm not an expert in economics and in investment, I can't give advice. Obviously, with a recession looming, and increasing unemployment, stocks, real estate, etc. will suffer. And it may not provide much opportunity for many. Joseph saw trouble coming and prepared. We need to pray!
 

Hidden In Him

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Since I'm not an expert in economics and in investment, I can't give advice. Obviously, with a recession looming, and increasing unemployment, stocks, real estate, etc. will suffer. And it may not provide much opportunity for many. Joseph saw trouble coming and prepared. We need to pray!

Employment is the ONE thing they are trying to hang their hat on, saying we can't be in a recession if the job market is so "good." But that's incredibly misleading. The actual employment rate isn't even back to where it was pre-pandemic, but there are a lot of zombie companies that are offering "opportunities" that won't be open for much longer when continuing to borrow to keep themselves alive is no longer an option due to rising interest rates. Many of the truly viable companies are laying off in large numbers, cuz they see what's coming and they are preparing for it.

Some of the following is a bit deeper into economics than I understand as well, but they hit on the whole "Jobs outlook" thing at 15:47+, and how it's not quite the "positive" sign many are assuming it is:

 
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Randy Kluth

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Employment is the ONE thing they are trying to hang their hat on, saying we can't be in a recession if the job market is so "good." But that's incredibly misleading. The actual employment rate isn't even back to where it was pre-pandemic, but there are a lot of zombie companies that are offering "opportunities" that won't be open for much longer when continuing to borrow to keep themselves alive is no longer an option due to rising interest rates. Many of the truly viable companies are laying off in large numbers, cuz they see what's coming and they are preparing for it.

Some of the following is a bit deeper into economics than I understand as well, but they hit on the whole "Jobs outlook" thing at 15:47+, and how it's not quite the "positive" sign many are assuming it is:


Thanks for posting. I have been following a lot of this, and deeply distrust the propaganda-infested Biden govt. and the agencies that support him. For example, what became of the "transitory" inflation we were supposed to experience? Politicians presently in power are going to paint a rosy picture prior to the US elections, and will do everything they can to spend their way back into office.

Nations always decline over time--I just don't know how fatal our present downturn is? We're basically following a Communist manifesto, politically and economically. That is, the Democrats don't care about balancing budgets or reining in spending. In the end, they will be the little gods who supply people with beer and cable TV, as well as a car to get to work. As long as they're fed the idea they will get money from the rich guy in the next community, they will vote Democrat. And it helps to be told they don't need religion in their personal life--their personal life is their business alone! ;)
 

Hidden In Him

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In the end, they will be the little gods who supply people with beer and cable TV, as well as a car to get to work.

Probably just the beer... and maybe the cable. They'll want everybody riding bikes, but maybe they'll give you one of those clever electric eco-friendly bikes they're making now. People can even get one that's tricked out with neon-light tires, if they're among the more fortunate.

Gotta get with the program, bro!

20191125_222518.jpg
 

Randy Kluth

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Probably just the beer... and maybe the cable. They'll want everybody riding bikes, but maybe they'll give you one of those clever electric eco-friendly bikes they're making now. People can even get one that's tricked out with neon-light tires, if they're among the more fortunate.

Gotta get with the program, bro!

20191125_222518.jpg

lol! The free car comment really comes from what I see in the UK, where my step sons live. The US has been following European-style government, and I saw it in the UK when I was there . Free hospitals and govt. housing for those less fortunate. If you have a disabled child, you get a free car.

Council Housing is a lot bigger than our own assisted rent programs, and yes, anything free seems to bring about an easy vote. I have other relatives over there who seem to have very modest incomes, and yet are able to travel to distant countries every year. Who needs a bicycle when you can fly, despite all the "Climate Change" rhetoric?
 

Davy

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I think all Christians are aware of the mark of the beast for buying and selling. We knew this had to eventually happen. It's still not really yet time for it. They have to introduce a new world currency first. Some say they already have some of it printed. It won't take much money in print, since most of the world's present currency is digitized.


Statement by ex-Chairman of the Board at the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan in a 1966 article in The Objectivist:

"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.


This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists’ tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists’ antagonism toward the gold standard."

_____________________________________________________________

Joseph Farrah at World Net Daily interviewed Greenspan after he had retired from the Federal Reserve, and asked him if he still believed what he said in that 1966 article. Greenspan said yes, he still believed it.

The U.S. Constitution actually only gives Congress the authority to regulate 'coin' money, which was defined to mean money based on gold. During the Nixon administration in 1971, the Federal Reserve completely left gold or silver backing any U.S. dollar (remember those old Silver Certificates the Fed gathered up? Those one dollar bills were each redeemable for one silver dollar).

Americans have bee duped by the U.S. banking elites, and their political allies.

CAUSE OF INFLATION:
Inflation is caused by ADDING dollars not backed by anything to the existing money supply. What happens is the money supply gets diluted. The money already in circulation becomes worth less. This means it takes more... dollars to buy the same items and labor than before the new dollars were added. It means your 'buying power' became less.

They argue that paper backed by gold limits the amount of money available to do business, which of course is baloney. On a gold standard, the dollar has more buying power, so you just use LESS dollars (or coin) to buy the same items and labor. Being backed by gold simply makes that 'buying power' of the dollar stable. The welfare statists then cannot mess with the strength or buying power of the dollar. This is why Greenspan admitted getting off of gold backing for the dollar meant a 'hidden tax' upon the people.

What those who don't like about a gold standard is that it tends to cause prices to fluctuate more. They instead would rather set inflation (by adding to the money supply worthless dollars printed backed by nothing) to around 3-4% per year, with prices rising steadily along with inflation of the dollar. Businesses prefer that instead of prices fluctuation because the people's buying choices push supply and demand more on a gold standard. It's essentially because, the real power of money is in the people's hands, and not in the bankers' hands. They don't like that. Neither do the politicians who support the banking elites.

Under a Fiat monetary policy, dollars are simply printed whenever the politicians and bankers want, which means creation of Debt. Fiat means 'by decree'. "I decree, print me a hundred billion dollars to send to a poor country in Africa", U.S. Congress might say to the Treasury. And the banking elites love it, because it means that money is created so they can also create LOANS that they can charge INTEREST on.

And every time a dollar is received to pay off those loans, the bankers are allowed to make a bookkeeping entry to CREATE 90% of that received dollar! Those are called 'reserves'. That 90 cents gets loaned out, and when it comes back in payment, they are allowed to make ANOTHER bookkeeping entry of 90% of that, and call it 'reserves'! That keeps going on until it gets down near 10 cents left, which is where they stop. Thus the commercial banks are ALSO CREATING MONEY OUT OF THIN AIR, ILLEGALLY, as only U.S. Congress has the authority per the U.S. Constitution to create and regulate U.S. money through the Treasury.