Traders and Investors

[FHII]

Boating industry has been doing well. A lot of people like to buy boats for things like salmon fishing and tuna fishing and charters as a small business. Then there's also waterskiing...Wicked Tuna show has made it really popular. People with more dollars than sense buy them for sporting and vacations...

Being on the Chesapeake Bay, I can see that. I heard of a fella who financed a boat, and after one crab season paid it off.

 

[Josho]

Briefly had a peak twice at 0.052 today, now currently sitting at 0.051 that's up 15%+ from where I bought copper shares at.

Update - back down to 0.05, I might hang onto this for a bit longer, because the signs are looking promising with penny stocks in copper mining, I have watched another company, who were just under 10c early last month, they are now up to 0.168c, they did peak above 19c though last week, so I don't think the ceiling has been hit yet and is still a way to go with the miners I am invested in.

I just had a quick look at the companies I am following, if I sold now, it's not the best time to buy other stuff, except for maybe a newly listed Lithium miner on the asx, but still very early days for them, I think they were only listed last month, so not much history.

 

[Josho]

Briefly had a peak twice at 0.052 today, now currently sitting at 0.051 that's up 15%+ from where I bought copper shares at.

I just had a quick look at the companies I am following, if I sold now, it's not the best time to buy other stuff, except for maybe a newly listed Lithium miner on the asx.

As for coffee, I saw, some coffee brands sit under retail food group on the asx.

 

[Josho]

Some pretty good signs, buyers already at 0.052 and sellers at 0.052, the first trades are about to take place, so looks like these copper shares are on the rise even more.

 

[FHII]

CCS isn't doing so well for me! down 6.53 in the last week since I bought it. Should I stick with it? I believe I should. Maybe even invest more... Buy low, sell high, right? My philosophy is to look at things in the long run....its tough to do when you have time ro look at the ticker once every 5 minutes!

Couple of things.... First I caught wind of a company called Oatly. I got 30 cents worth of stock through my trading platform (Stash) for free. Within a week it made me 5 cents. Cool! But I sold it after that. It was a good call.

Its a new company which was hot in its first 2 weeks. But... They make milk, ice cream and other things out of oats.... Maybe they will try to make sweaters and fuel out of oats too.... Who knows! But lets face it... Very few people want to eat ice cream made from oats. Second, larger companies like Nestle will come after that niche. Another red flag is that the Motley Fools noted while they did have tremendous sales, they never made profit. That makes me think they are reinvesting everything, which sounds impressive, but hey... Its oat milk and ice cream! No, but thank you for offering.

Since its offering amd the 2 week push, it did the same thing as PATH. it shot up $10 or so per share, declined and then just stabilized... Not losing or gaining.

But I am wondering if there is something to be learned... Hot IPO's seem to do well for 3-5 business days. I saw this with bumble as well, but it was much more fleeting.

Second.... WWE is doing some weird things. Thats the pro wrestling folks. They have been laying off folks more than usual, and even some of their prominent talent. With the COVID restrictions being loosed world wide and a return of live audiences coming soon, not to mention Vince McMahon is near 80... Something is up. Not sure if its for good or bad, but there is a lot of speculation they might be setting up to sell.

I admit I am a wrestling fan. I am not optimistic. Today's product is nothing close to the 80's product (with Hulk Hogan) or the 2000's (with the Rock, Stone Cold Steve Austin and the Undertaker). But things still could get interesting with this stock.

 

[JohnDB]

CCS isn't doing so well for me! down 6.53 in the last week since I bought it. Should I stick with it? I believe I should. Maybe even invest more... Buy low, sell high, right? My philosophy is to look at things in the long run....its tough to do when you have time ro look at the ticker once every 5 minutes!

Couple of things.... First I caught wind of a company called Oatly. I got 30 cents worth of stock through my trading platform (Stash) for free. Within a week it made me 5 cents. Cool! But I sold it after that. It was a good call.

Its a new company which was hot in its first 2 weeks. But... They make milk, ice cream and other things out of oats.... Maybe they will try to make sweaters and fuel out of oats too.... Who knows! But lets face it... Very few people want to eat ice cream made from oats. Second, larger companies like Nestle will come after that niche. Another red flag is that the Motley Fools noted while they did have tremendous sales, they never made profit. That makes me think they are reinvesting everything, which sounds impressive, but hey... Its oat milk and ice cream! No, but thank you for offering.

Since its offering amd the 2 week push, it did the same thing as PATH. it shot up $10 or so per share, declined and then just stabilized... Not losing or gaining.

But I am wondering if there is something to be learned... Hot IPO's seem to do well for 3-5 business days. I saw this with bumble as well, but it was much more fleeting.

Second.... WWE is doing some weird things. Thats the pro wrestling folks. They have been laying off folks more than usual, and even some of their prominent talent. With the COVID restrictions being loosed world wide and a return of live audiences coming soon, not to mention Vince McMahon is near 80... Something is up. Not sure if its for good or bad, but there is a lot of speculation they might be setting up to sell.

I admit I am a wrestling fan. I am not optimistic. Today's product is nothing close to the 80's product (with Hulk Hogan) or the 2000's (with the Rock, Stone Cold Steve Austin and the Undertaker). But things still could get interesting with this stock.

Any stock...no matter what. If you buy in and it goes down over 2% you dump it...
That's called the 2% rule. You buy stocks to make money...not lose it. And even if you have made great money in a stock of it tanks 8% you dump it...that's the 8% rule.
You can always buy back in at a later time. But re-evaluating how and why you bought in at the price you bought in at is something that you need to work on. Study the charts and press to work together for your buying. Buy in on bad news...sell on good news. And that's a bit convoluted... because of the expectations of bad news is a buy point and then when the news isn't that bad it will rise on relief. Reverse of good news expectations...buy on rumor and sell on fact.

And yes CCS did go down on a poor construction/housing mortgage report...but the reality is going to be something else...next week (because I didn't want to stay in for the whole drop) I will buy back in...it has trend lines it follows...and will hold it for a couple of months for it's earnings report in August. Same thing with LPX and INMD.

When you look at Finviz.com those lines on the charts are there for a reason...they are showing trends and formations of charting that really pay off when you know them.

LPX is now showing a wedge formation. One that will pay off when the earnings come out. (Because it's a profitable company) That wedge is sometimes referred to as a Bull Flag or pennant. Meaning that when it gets to a point it's going to take off for a rise. It might do it earlier but I don't think that it will.

All this stuff I'm telling you is part of an education that was once taught in Colleges as an additional class after economics. They quit doing so...new SEC rules and liabilities etc have crushed it. Of course some kids are screwballs and sue over everything. They learned it from their parents. But this is what makes most people self sufficient from their earnings into retirement. And it's just as important as home economics as part of personal finance that they do teach. (How to balance a checkbook and pay bills)

IPOs have a very particular chart look and performance...look at ASO and CRCT...their charts both have a similar shape and performance after their IPO. Look at great entry and exits. See the drops and rises from the formations? See how much they look alike in the first 3 months? Good IPOs usually look just like those. (But I wouldn't touch either one now)

Relax...study up a bit more and try again.

 

[Josho]

@JohnDB the copper shares went back down after I said that, what happened is a trading halt happened, and they then did a capital raise, with the company selling x amount of shares at the same price I bought it for, ouch... That sent it from 0.051 down to 0.044, except it even finished Friday a bit lower at 0.043, the waiting game begins again.

All is a bit crazy, before the capital raise, a few were offering to buy shares for 0.052 and 0.053, which was above the 0.051 last buy price during the trading halt.. before the capital raise happened.

 

[FHII]

Any stock...no matter what. If you buy in and it goes down over 2% you dump it...
That's called the 2% rule.

Thanks... Got it. I lost 4.32%. So I put in the sell. Fortunately I only had about $19 invested so I lost less then a dollar. It'll go on my watch list for now.

 

[JohnDB]

Thanks... Got it. I lost 4.32%. So I put in the sell. Fortunately I only had about $19 invested so I lost less then a dollar. It'll go on my watch list for now.

It's probably only going to go down another one percent or two now.
See the long wick on the candle...it's on the bottom. New trend line since last earnings. It might hit 75 again but...chances and indications are that it's going to meander back up to 81 now. It's a highly profitable company that has been abused by news not of its own making... perfect time for entry.

Now is the time to buy. Again... don't buy high and sell low...that's not how we do this.
You are letting fear drive you instead of reasonable logic and following trends and indicators. Even when I tell you something about a stock you need to understand that the final choice is yours. (Your money is on the line) and you need to understand the logic behind the purchase so you know the expected profits and risks.

Don't be like the WSB guys who "buy and hodl" just because someone said to...and some (very few) make money. The rest lose money and blame everything and everyone including themselves for when it doesn't work out for them.

CCS (like other construction/housing stocks) is a somewhat cyclical stock...and they do great in the winter to spring. Now we are in the summer to Fall season...past it's high point. BUT...that's the sneaky part of this.
Housing is done by half huge contractors like CCS and over half by small independent contractors. But supply chain interruptions have created a shortage of houses. (Also a lack of labor) That's one reason lumber is so expensive. But since the warmer weather started smaller mills have been making lumber too...and selling it for $$$$. But that brings lumber prices down.
Large contractors have contract pricing coast to coast for materials...they have supply chain interruptions too but not anything like smaller contractors do. So smaller contractors haven't been able to get anything done. Large contractors have. And when the truth comes out in August...this stock (and other select ones in this sector) will explode up. And that's when you sell.
You will get a 25-50% return. (Maybe more due to momentum)

Then around February you buy in again...and come after earnings in April of next year you sell again. (See how this works?)

 

[JohnDB]

Briefly had a peak twice at 0.052 today, now currently sitting at 0.051 that's up 15%+ from where I bought copper shares at.

Update - back down to 0.05, I might hang onto this for a bit longer, because the signs are looking promising with penny stocks in copper mining, I have watched another company, who were just under 10c early last month, they are now up to 0.168c, they did peak above 19c though last week, so I don't think the ceiling has been hit yet and is still a way to go with the miners I am invested in.

I just had a quick look at the companies I am following, if I sold now, it's not the best time to buy other stuff, except for maybe a newly listed Lithium miner on the asx, but still very early days for them, I think they were only listed last month, so not much history.

IPOs and capital fundraisers are very very short term plays. Two days is usually my limit. A lot go to three...but them guys got more guts than brains IMHO. One is usually good enough for me.
IPO s have a very particular chart formation... and you have to understand that institutional investors and hedgers are driving the prices...we are just riding the waves they make.

KKR holds most of ASO (sporting goods store that had an IPO) the stock went through the IPO phase and everyone made money except for the ones who just bought and held afterwards.
Then KKR dumped another 10mil shares of its 60% stake in the company because it's stock price was great from an earnings release. And the share price tanked because of it. But only for a while...one month later and the price is right back and a bit higher. Meaning that KKR is likely going to dump some more shares and in the near future.

Mining stocks...one thing that I know is that these guys need land and equipment on a regular basis...they tear stuff up in extreme environments. So a capital fundraiser is saying that they think they have found gold/copper and needs equipment that got destroyed.
But chances are that they won't need any for a while after this. Unless you happen to have an inside track on this company and know better. But if they don't start making some good profits and expectations for more... time to mark down a loss.

I don't know a lot about mining stocks...a sector outside of my wheelhouse.

Coffee futures though are. Do a search for coffee futures...not a coffee brand name...brand names are going to lose money on high prices not make them because the consumers won't pay volatile market prices.
Bloomburg should have an ETN or ETF available in OZ for you. JO is an international ETN...playing coffee in ICE (UK) and CBOE (USA) and I think that there's one in OZ too for coffee. Vietnam and Africa coffees are traded there. Vietnam is the largest producer of Robusta coffee (a type of coffee used for blended coffees) Vietnamese production is down over 11% this year. Brazil is going to be down 24% or more. And if the weather doesn't relent it's going to be a lot worse.

There is a large inventory of green coffee that will hold for a bit...but it's shrinking rapidly on increased sales and demand.

The weather is putting green coffee cherries at risk.

 

[FHII]

As it turns out, I owned a small amount of Wendy's stock before it became the lastest meme stock! Yea... I made some good gains on day one with it and now 2 days after its still higher than it was but not as much.

I pretty much knew what was going on with this... So did I sell? No. Wouldn't have done any good with my platform (Stash). It would be at least mid way through the next business day before the sale was initiated.

That's ok. Eventually I will get a better service where I can make trades that go through at the right time. But the thing is that while Wendy's wasn't making huge gains before, they were doing good. I bought in when it was below $19/share and before it exploded upward it was already above $23. Thats since March.

Almost sold today... I don't want such a volitile stock. However, I figure if I had that confidence before REDDIT folks got a hold of it, why would that change? I don't think its going to sink below what I bought it for, and I see good things for a steady growth (though a slow one). Since I am not into day trading, I am sticking with it and may invest more (just gotta be careful with timing).

Interesting thing... I continue to read, listen and study. I am coming to believe that most financial experts really have very little idea what will happen. They are kind of like weathermen on the news. They can see fronts and patterns but can't give you a 100% accurate forecast.

Thoughts and comments appreciated.

 

[JohnDB]

As it turns out, I owned a small amount of Wendy's stock before it became the lastest meme stock! Yea... I made some good gains on day one with it and now 2 days after its still higher than it was but not as much.

I pretty much knew what was going on with this... So did I sell? No. Wouldn't have done any good with my platform (Stash). It would be at least mid way through the next business day before the sale was initiated.

That's ok. Eventually I will get a better service where I can make trades that go through at the right time. But the thing is that while Wendy's wasn't making huge gains before, they were doing good. I bought in when it was below $19/share and before it exploded upward it was already above $23. Thats since March.

Almost sold today... I don't want such a volitile stock. However, I figure if I had that confidence before REDDIT folks got a hold of it, why would that change? I don't think its going to sink below what I bought it for, and I see good things for a steady growth (though a slow one). Since I am not into day trading, I am sticking with it and may invest more (just gotta be careful with timing).

Interesting thing... I continue to read, listen and study. I am coming to believe that most financial experts really have very little idea what will happen. They are kind of like weathermen on the news. They can see fronts and patterns but can't give you a 100% accurate forecast.

Thoughts and comments appreciated.

That's awesome dude!
I played with MVIS the other day and AMC...just during the day when it was spiking up and only with $100 each time...I made like a couple bucks or lost a couple and walked away.

I took a beating yesterday as it was. I'm heavily invested in housing construction and the whole sector has dumped because of all the empty shells of houses that they can't complete. Not even with windows or doors...they can't get them either. No Tyvek wrap either.
Whole new neighborhoods this way. Not just a few houses...50+ per new subdivision.

So good thing you sold CCS as it has dropped over 25% in the past several days. I got caught with LPX yesterday during it's 5% drop. (I was on a day trip to Huntsville)

So I'm going to watch it today to see if anything changes. But the whole sector had gone bad for a bit...so I'm dumping out.

 

[Jay Ross]

That's awesome dude!
I played with MVIS the other day and AMC...just during the day when it was spiking up and only with $100 each time...I made like a couple bucks or lost a couple and walked away.

I took a beating yesterday as it was. I'm heavily invested in housing construction and the whole sector has dumped because of all the empty shells of houses that they can't complete. Not even with windows or doors...they can't get them either. No Tyvek wrap either.
Whole new neighborhoods this way. Not just a few houses...50+ per new subdivision.

So good thing you sold CCS as it has dropped over 25% in the past several days. I got caught with LPX yesterday during it's 5% drop. (I was on a day trip to Huntsville)

So I'm going to watch it today to see if anything changes. But the whole sector had gone bad for a bit...so I'm dumping out.

All housing construction is saddled with the major past manufacturing companies having exported their businesses overseas to China and China now playing hard ball with the supply of those same goods to the market place.

In Australia, the housing sector is going gang busters because the manufacturing/extrusion of windows frames etc are still being extruded in Australia, with the extrusion plants never being busier than during the pandemic. Companies that imported extruded Al sections from China with a footpath guarantee of quality after first paying for the goods before they were loaded onto ships to be exported because of the cheaper cost, have returned to the Australian market place for AL extruded sections.

The "Do not put your eggs in one basket," wisdom is now coming back to haunt many business today.

 

[JohnDB]

All housing construction is saddled with the major past manufacturing companies having exported their businesses overseas to China and China now playing hard ball with the supply of those same goods to the market place.

In Australia, the housing sector is going gang busters because the manufacturing/extrusion of windows frames etc are still being extruded in Australia, with the extrusion plants never being busier than during the pandemic. Companies that imported extruded Al sections from China with a footpath guarantee of quality after first paying for the goods before they were loaded onto ships to be exported because of the cheaper cost, have returned to the Australian market place for AL extruded sections.

The "Do not put your eggs in one basket," wisdom is now coming back to haunt many business today.

Well...I know that the seals are cut out of a single sheet...
The frames I know nothing about.

But all I know is that there's a ton of houses just shelled and dormant. But we can make window frames if that's the issue. We can make them out of hard rubber silicone and vinyl if need be. Quick as a wink. Double pane for houses and triple for real insulating abilities of fridges and freezers.

But...there's probably more going on...wiring is usually made in china. And china hasn't been buying much in the way of copper...not enough for an increase in production like what is necessary to supply demand.
And the copper market is sky high right now. (For ore and recyclers) which usually means that air handlers are also expensive and having issues.

Copper wire, air conditioning, plumbing and etc...looking for them and it's not happening.

Plastics, for us, come from Canada...most of their crude oil makes quick and easy plastics and rubber. (Refinery time is more precious than the oil they refine) Mexico and South America makes gasoline. Texas makes Diesel. Middle Eastern oil makes motor oil.

Aussies use propane so much because it's more plentiful than gasoline...but from what I have heard many automobiles can use either. Petrol for long trips but propane for puttering around town.
At either rate it makes sense...lots of LNG in the area. So much that they can turn it into stretch film that is so common here to wrap pallets of goods being shipped and meat in the grocery store.

But currently with oil..the high prices are a problem with supply. We need more wells and production. We can either be at OPEC's mercy or continue to drill and find more. There's plenty out there...but it needs to be found. Also the existing wells need to be used. And local rigs employed...USA lost two and Canada gained two...more oils exists off the African coast and South America coast...but they need to be drilled, spudded and pumped.
Then...OPEC meetings won't control the world. Influence is all. Iran lost most of theirs to a lack of maintenance and resulting fire...they are out for a while...at least a year or more. (Nuclear program was really expensive) Iraq is still problematic. Russia still can't get theirs to market. Which leaves Saudis, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Mexico and I'm forgetting someone. (Northern Africa isn't producing like they were)

But there is plenty around...just gotta get it.

 

[FHII]

JohnDB has spoken quite a bit about how shipping lanes have been disrupted and how its effecting the market. I don't think its going to get better base on this article. Might be a tough holiday season at the end of the year....

A coronavirus outbreak in southern China creating a huge backlog at Guangdong ports could spoil your holiday shopping this year - CNN

 

[JohnDB]

JohnDB has spoken quite a bit about how shipping lanes have been disrupted and how its effecting the market. I don't think its going to get better base on this article. Might be a tough holiday season at the end of the year....

A coronavirus outbreak in southern China creating a huge backlog at Guangdong ports could spoil your holiday shopping this year - CNN

What products are available to purchase at Christmas are finalized by August. October ends the marketing of these things. (Advertising and promotion sales dates are finalized)

Between the shipping container shortages and coronavirus outbreaks in various areas...it's not looking good for having much junk under the tree this year. Especially the favorite new electronic items.

Cocoa is cheap (Ghana bumper crop)... chocolate is getting to be really expensive. Finding any is also going to be problematic. (Like last year...not enough factory workers)

Coffee will still be reeling from All Time Highs as the shortages from Vietnam and Brazil and Columbia will be realized fully.

And where there will likely be a good selection of trees this year... having a home to place it in might be more difficult than you think... even apartments are going to get expensive.

The cleanup of the pandemic is not over yet.

 

[Josho]

@JohnDB it doesn't look good on the stock market at the moment...

 

[JohnDB]

Just give it a moment...it's looking much better today...it's going to bounce.

Stock prices that fall too far... bounce up.

Economies are going back to normal. They won't be exactly the same as pre-pandemic but they are coming back. European travel is resuming. (A huge start back to normalcy)

They aren't coming back as fast as the market keeps pricing them...but they are coming back. That super hot runup in the winter and executive leadership change is really messing with the markets... China's autocratic leadership is also not helping either. It's been the battle of the credit lines and the publicity.

So...watch for it this morning... premarket is way up. The dollar is really high this morning. (So commodities and commodity related stocks are cheap) and money is pouring into growth stocks instead of defensive value stocks today and likely will for a bit.

This is a good thing...but get ready to jump out back into value and commodities when the pullback comes.

 

[JohnDB]

And today is a good day to be holding/buying GBP and selling Dollars...

Coffee is dropping nicely... waiting for it to get into the 130's before I pick it up again. Then wait for Christmas...and it will give us a nice present around then.

 

[FHII]

I got burned! I figured the market would continue to slide and sold a good portion before the bell. I didn't sell all of any stock I like, but cut them down significantly. Problem is... I picked the wrong ones!

About 15% of my portfolio is in NDVA. Over the last month they've been killing it, and I made good money. They flirted with $780 but have quickly fallen to $722. Its a tech stock, and I'm not big on them at this time, but man! It seduced me and I did good for a while! This particular stock goes through some wild swings, so it probably will come back soon. But still... I got greedy.

I have a theory about one stock in that it bounces between a high of $72 and a low of $58. Its Big Lots, by the way, and I've seen it happen 3 times this year already. Ultra low PE by the way... It got down below $64 and I'm waiting with a little bit of cash for it to drop some more (which currently, it isn't).

I am wondering if I got the nerves needed to this... I think I need to be more patient.