Traders and Investors

[FHII]

Here is one way to use a P/E ratio with the other public numbers of a publicly traded company. The P/E ratio is low for this company and to be honest and full disclosure I own shares of stock of this company he is discussing. (But I don't think that its a losing trade by any stretch of the imagination...nor do I think that all the money from all the members of this forum combined can affect the share price of this stock)

Thanks... I will definity have to look at at a few more times.

When I really tried to understand the ratio, the best I could come up with is this: if the P/E ratio is 15, then they are spending $15 to make $1. That's not the same as your simple explanation that seems to say it'll take 15 years to match all the stock that is on the market. Or is it? Or do I understand it wrong?

Thanks.... I gotta lit to learn!

 

[Josho]

This is something that burns many investors...
Learning when to take profits.

When a stock begins to look weak after a runup...do you know what that looks like?
Do you have a targeted price for exit?
What do you do if the stock has risen a lot and seems to go down a little but still has another 5% to climb to hit your targeted price?
What does diversifying your portfolio really mean?

I personally do sometimes some dumb things...like hang on for too long and forget to take profits...expecting another rise even when the stock I have owned is going down.
Profits are only realized if you sell the stock. When you are holding that cash...that's when you truly made money. Otherwise you are still gambling/waiting for profits or losses.

And that is something that is hard for people to understand at times...they are happy when the stock is going up and asking "How high this stock can go"...that's when you need to remind yourself of taking profits...you can buy back in again in a few days if you want to. (probably for a cheaper price) Usually if a stock has run up 20% or more (of the normal stocks that I play) it is time to take the money and run...but leaving 5-20% of my initial investment in place just to see if it is going to continue to rise is fine...(Hogs get slaughtered and no one has a ongoing runup in price...all stocks have peaks and valleys) And when it doesn't work out...take the last of the money...Usually if a stock falls by 2-3% its time to take the money off the table. Down 5% and you are working actively against yourself. Come back when the stock finally figures out that it still needs to run up. 8% drop (while invested) and you never touch that stock again...but obviously something is wrong with what you were thinking and you need to cut your losses.

IF it goes flat on you...rising and falling but essentially going nowhere...that is actually fine. Usually that is a platform building for a huge rise...and a pretty good spot to add more money to what you have invested.

Today the ETN "JO" had a pretty good rise...coffee finally started to react to all the price support issues. (Columbian unrest, Drought, Low US inventories, opening coffee shops, Low Vietnam production, and low dollar) And for a while you would think that it was never going to go up...but the truth is that there isn't going to be enough coffee this year to go around. Unlike a temporary shortage or inflation...this one is the genuine article. This isn't caused by unreasonable demand...as is the case with rough lumber. This one isn't caused by someone just not wanting to supply...as is the case with oil. This is a bonafide shortage of a common commodity. So...since coffee is usually cheapest at this time of year...this is when most supply houses make purchases for delivery. But...it isn't down...its up. And not going to go down because of Brazil's poor coffee harvest coming because of the drought...sure they are going to get rain for the next week...but it's too late for the coffee trees. They done flowered and fruited. The drought made all the beans extra small or fall off. The trees were damaged for the season. Sure the warehouses down there stocked up for the slow biannual season for coffee...but the shortfall is too much for the warehouses to cover for. So...they like money too...so they stocked up before it got expensive and are ready to begin to sell their gold...eventually. Come Fall and winter...coffee is going to hit another All Time High. So...When it hits the neighborhood of a high a few years ago...around December or January I will release my hold on coffee. Merry Christmas!

Ah yeah, the copper mining shares seems to have gone flat on me at the moment, it rose, then fell back to the price I bought it for and has been running flat, it never hit a target price and I could have took out and traded for other stocks for a few cents profit after commissions, or $5 and a few cents profit if I traded for an ETF... But yeah, I didn't see it as worth it, considering how slow ETFs can be.

On the other hand, my gold exploration/mining shares are a bit more stable, they were having wild swings from 0.001 to 0.0015 to 0.002 and back down, but last few days it has been just swinging back and forth between 0.0015 and 0.002 closing off days at 0.002 for the last few. It may be stabilizing a bit.

 

[Josho]

Ah yeah, the copper mining shares seems to have gone flat on me at the moment, it rose, then fell back to the price I bought it for and has been running flat, it never hit a target price and I could have took out and traded for other stocks for a few cents profit after commissions, or $5 and a few cents profit if I traded for an ETF... But yeah, I didn't see it as worth it, considering how slow ETFs can be.

On the other hand, my gold exploration/mining shares are a bit more stable, they were having wild swings from 0.001 to 0.0015 to 0.002 and back down, but last few days it has been just swinging back and forth between 0.0015 and 0.002 closing off days at 0.002 for the last few. It may be stabilizing a bit.

Wow no one has traded those copper mining shares today so far, it's been over 3 hours since the market opened.

 

[JohnDB]

Thanks... I will definity have to look at at a few more times.

When I really tried to understand the ratio, the best I could come up with is this: if the P/E ratio is 15, then they are spending $15 to make $1. That's not the same as your simple explanation that seems to say it'll take 15 years to match all the stock that is on the market. Or is it? Or do I understand it wrong?

Thanks.... I gotta lit to learn!

Price of a share of stock divided by the annual earnings per share.

A stock that is $10 and has earnings per share of $2 has a P/E ratio of 5.

Earnings are reported quarterly usually...so you usually get a quarterly earnings report of 0.50 per share....but it's the same as above.

 

[Josho]

Ah yeah, the copper mining shares seems to have gone flat on me at the moment, it rose, then fell back to the price I bought it for and has been running flat, it never hit a target price and I could have took out and traded for other stocks for a few cents profit after commissions, or $5 and a few cents profit if I traded for an ETF... But yeah, I didn't see it as worth it, considering how slow ETFs can be.

On the other hand, my gold exploration/mining shares are a bit more stable, they were having wild swings from 0.001 to 0.0015 to 0.002 and back down, but last few days it has been just swinging back and forth between 0.0015 and 0.002 closing off days at 0.002 for the last few. It may be stabilizing a bit.

I am just going to be patient with the copper, the gold company that I have shares in, aren't at full scale production yet, they just got some new machinery, they plan to do their first gold pour with their new Gekko gold processing plant in August this year... I have been trying to sell of at 0.002, but there is a massive back log of people trying to sell off at that price, there's also a back log of sellers building up at 0.003. I could always cancel the sell order and wait until August, but I could also buy back before then too, if I manage to sell at 0.002.

 

[JohnDB]

I am just going to be patient with the copper, the gold company that I have shares in, aren't at full scale production yet, they just got some new machinery, they plan to do their first gold pour with their new Gekko gold processing plant in August this year... I have been trying to sell of at 0.002, but there is a massive back log of people trying to sell off at that price, there's also a back log of sellers building up at 0.003. I could always cancel the sell order and wait until August, but I could also buy back before then too, if I manage to sell at 0.002.

Generally speaking, if there's a problem with the liquidity of a stock...I usually don't trade it. Usually I have to go with market orders instead of limit orders on those stocks to get my money back out.

If there's a large gap between the bid and the ask during regular business hours...that's telling you that there's issues with liquidity. Also the lack of volume...

 

[Josho]

On the other hand, my gold exploration/mining shares are a bit more stable, they were having wild swings from 0.001 to 0.0015 to 0.002 and back down, but last few days it has been just swinging back and forth between 0.0015 and 0.002 closing off days at 0.002 for the last few. It may be stabilizing a bit.

Spoke too soon, it closed at 0.001 yesterday

 

[Josho]

@JohnDB copper mining shares are back up 4.55% from where I bought it from today....

It seemed like buyers and sellers were having a standoff yesterday, and then some seller gave into the buyers at 0.044 yesterday, which is what I bought it for, but not many shares sold yesterday, it opened at 0.046 today and has been running steady at that since the opening.

 

[Josho]

Palladium ETF gone up another 2.33% so far, it's pretty high at the moment though....

 

[FHII]

Giving CCS a shot... Thanks for explaining PE ratio, John DB. I think I am getting out of retail to a large degree. With Covid and the stimulus checks dying out, it looks bleak until August when back-to-school season starts and Christmas usually mid October. However, I am suspecting it doesn't count until the quarterly reports say they count.

Haven't sold yet... I am waiting for the early morning report to see what the forecast is.

Lowes and Home Depot haven't been doing well lately. They are hanging in there but the boom seems to be gone. I suspect folks are done with their home improvements and are looking to get away and be entertained. Thus, I am keeping my eye on things related to travel and entertainment.

Yet interestingly, I saw a news report talking about how demand for homes has jumped across the nation.

 

[JohnDB]

@JohnDB copper mining shares are back up 4.55% from where I bought it from today....

It seemed like buyers and sellers were having a standoff yesterday, and then some seller gave into the buyers at 0.044 yesterday, which is what I bought it for, but not many shares sold yesterday, it opened at 0.046 today and has been running steady at that since the opening.

That's awesome! Just remember to take profits when you can get them....

As far as futures go...I've been playing coffee futures. It's every bit as complicated as mining/metals futures except for the added element of weather plus forex trading.

Here in the USA we have an ETN that plays coffee futures with treasury notes as the base...so that's why it's an ETN.
The ETN is found under "JO".
Today is my Jackpot!
Nailed it hard. And I've been making money off of it for the past week. I'm going to let it ride for a while longer... probably until the Fall.
Futures are a good way to make money when they hit...or commodity based stocks. Commodity based stocks (like mining companies or lumberyard stocks or contractors like CCS) are a good way to play off the commodities you see going to have high demand and increasing returns. They tend to mute the base commodities they represent but they are much safer and solid than the volatile commodities themselves.

Commodities themselves are very volatile...they can have wild swings either direction and calm, decisive hands are necessary.
Coffee is my hero at the moment. It's going up to a 4 year high at least this year...and I'm riding this puppy. Speaking of which I need to stock up for the winter soon....it's going to get really expensive this year.

 

[JohnDB]

Giving CCS a shot... Thanks for explaining PE ratio, John DB. I think I am getting out of retail to a large degree. With Covid and the stimulus checks dying out, it looks bleak until August when back-to-school season starts and Christmas usually mid October. However, I am suspecting it doesn't count until the quarterly reports say they count.

Haven't sold yet... I am waiting for the early morning report to see what the forecast is.

Lowes and Home Depot haven't been doing well lately. They are hanging in there but the boom seems to be gone. I suspect folks are done with their home improvements and are looking to get away and be entertained. Thus, I am keeping my eye on things related to travel and entertainment.

Yet interestingly, I saw a news report talking about how demand for homes has jumped across the nation.

Actually retail stocks are just now taking off....malls are reopening and mask mandates are falling away. I was thinking about jumping in.
I bought into CCS back when the price was in the low 60's. And you can see what the price is now. It also pays a dividend so you can buy it and forget about it. It's going to do well but it's next earnings report won't be until July... and you can expect a nice jump in CCS around that time.

There's two PE ratios...
One is the current PE and then there's the forward PE ratio.

Some companies can look at the orders for their products, know how much product they can make or will produce and give forward guidance on revenue and profits. Microchips and OSB makers can do this. So I look at what the company says vx what the analysts say.
Analyst's are somewhat stupid...they got the rules of grammar right but really don't know much about every industry they cover or what the surrounding world is demanding around them. (I listen to the Earnings Report podcasts) Each company is usually unique in what and how they have a niche for the money they make. I listen to them asking the dumbest of questions about the company and absolutely miss asking questions about the bombs or elephants the CFO or CEO just dropped.

Now if you will recall the video...notice that he is using the current P/E ratio...not the Forward P/E ratio for the valuation of the stock.
But notice what he said in a comment about the number? That it was really low...
Right now with demand being so high a Fair Value P/E ratio for CCS should be in the 30's. Meaning that the stock should be about 3 times the price it currently is or is aiming for. That's what I'm banking on.

Now the housing market is strong and going to stay that way for a while yet. And when the numbers continue to be strong going into the Fall and Winter months...that stock will explode like you wouldn't believe.
Currently most analysts live in apartments...they don't understand why people want houses...they have never lived in one...they hate mowing the lawn or fixing a sink. So they think that this little bump in housing is over already....ROFL. so they have reflected this sentiment in their reports.

But when the truth comes out...they won't get fired. They can be 100% wrong and keep their jobs. These guys influence hundreds of billions of dollars and screw up massively half of the time. So...be careful with things like price targets and analyst's predictions unless you see a current fully detailed report explaining the what and why and then make a determination for yourself.

And if I was you... avoid the Cruise Ships...they are upside down. Nobody wants to go on a cruise ship. (Too many people too close and trapped together) many are going to go bankrupt soon.

 

[FHII]

Actually retail stocks are just now taking off....malls are reopening and mask mandates are falling away

Let me tell you my thinking on this... Yes, I get it that malls are reopening, but the retail stores I have been following are not in malls (Walmart, TJ Maxx, Big Lots, Dollar General).

With the exception of TJ Maxx,the other stores never closed and they boomed. TJX did well for a while once they opened too. I did well with all these stocks except Big Lots (sold too late because of sentimental reasons... I work for them). Last quarter was solid, but since then sales are down. Since you taught me about Forward PE and PE... BIG's forward PE is almost triple the current. I'm keeping my eye on them in the future, but I think it was the right move to get out for now.

As for malls... I don't share your enthusiasm. Malls unfortunately have been dying. Anchor stores like Sears and JC Penny are disappearing. Where I am, mall traffic has been declining for 10 years, and most of the folks there are youngsters (who look more to cause trouble and hook up with their friends than shop).
Finally, you can't ignore the stimulus checks. Folks didn't use them to pay bills or invest; they spent them at retail stores and on home improvement (Thus, Lowes and Home Depot did well). I doubt we will get another, but then again, who knows what President Biden will do?
So thats my reasoning... Let me know what your counterpoints are if you have time (I remain a humble student here!!!)

Currently most analysts live in apartments...they don't understand why people want houses...they have never lived in one...they hate mowing the lawn or fixing a sink. So they think that this little bump in housing is over already....ROFL. so they have reflected this sentiment in their reports.

Well I live in an apartment and I understand clearly why the house market is booming: its because a monthly mortgage payment is cheaper than renting by a while lot! renting... I have a great deal on my rent, but otherwise rent can be $1200-1500 a month. A monthy mortgage payment is about half that with good credit. Duh!

I almost bought a house... We were about 30 points shy on our credit score (which dropped 25 points after their credit check)

 

[JohnDB]

Let me tell you my thinking on this... Yes, I get it that malls are reopening, but the retail stores I have been following are not in malls (Walmart, TJ Maxx, Big Lots, Dollar General).

With the exception of TJ Maxx,the other stores never closed and they boomed. TJX did well for a while once they opened too. I did well with all these stocks except Big Lots (sold too late because of sentimental reasons... I work for them). Last quarter was solid, but since then sales are down. Since you taught me about Forward PE and PE... BIG's forward PE is almost triple the current. I'm keeping my eye on them in the future, but I think it was the right move to get out for now.

As for malls... I don't share your enthusiasm. Malls unfortunately have been dying. Anchor stores like Sears and JC Penny are disappearing. Where I am, mall traffic has been declining for 10 years, and most of the folks there are youngsters (who look more to cause trouble and hook up with their friends than shop).
Finally, you can't ignore the stimulus checks. Folks didn't use them to pay bills or invest; they spent them at retail stores and on home improvement (Thus, Lowes and Home Depot did well). I doubt we will get another, but then again, who knows what President Biden will do?
So thats my reasoning... Let me know what your counterpoints are if you have time (I remain a humble student here!!!)


Well I live in an apartment and I understand clearly why the house market is booming: its because a monthly mortgage payment is cheaper than renting by a while lot! renting... I have a great deal on my rent, but otherwise rent can be $1200-1500 a month. A monthy mortgage payment is about half that with good credit. Duh!

I almost bought a house... We were about 30 points shy on our credit score (which dropped 25 points after their credit check)

You are out there more than I... able to see better than me.
I know about malls...and I agree with you about going mall shopping in general. Kohl's is hit or miss around here... you might catch them full or empty. (Free standing store). I was thinking more about the strip malls than the type that you are talking about.
The problem I seen in stores lately is a huge lack of labor and a lack of products on the shelf. That has to be a problem with sales generation. The dollars per sq foot is going to be down...sure their labor costs are going to be well inside of margins...but finding clothes my size that fit was extremely problematic...and I was just looking for jeans and shirts...and I'm just an average size. (36X30)
So you might be right...it might be that some of those stocks are going to be pump and dump...
Thank you for the heads up... working together about the things we see are always beneficial.
So whatcha thinking about boats? Besides the fact that they are a hole in the water you pour money into...we got BC and HZO...
Brunswick is a major boat manufacturer. Marinemax is a retailer dealing in both new and used boats. I'm thinking that both are done for the season...(buy on rumor and sell on fact) For retail specialty both have done well but HZO missed performing on it's last cup with handle. But I dumped out on the handle...but I was thinking about picking them up again... dunno.

Then there's the whole housing construction market... supply chain interruptions are crippling it currently. Demand is staying too high and they can't complete them fast enough yet. I'm still long on CCS as a Contractor/Retailer...I think that they will continue to be strong "IF" they can give some good, strong, forward guidance at their next ER. Profits are expected to be beyond expectations...and expectations are already high. (I bought them back in the mid to low 60's) so I'm solid with them with earnings at this point...just hanging out for dividends and more capital gains...
Personally, I wouldn't buy a house right now for anything unless it's a fully staffed retirement home I rent out...give it a couple of years and then buy. Apartments are going to remain inexpensive for a while. (And I do pay over 1500/mo because Nashville TN has a housing shortage and has had one for the past few years.)
So your situation is actually better...yes I know that you want a house...but at these prices you aren't going to make any profit for a while. The bottom will fall out in a few years...wages will have increased and affordability will rule again.

Supply chains are the problem. Interruptions are the killer. Same thing with automobiles...
Anyone who can overcome those issues is the winner.
Sure a load of chips came for the car makers but how about the foam for the seats? (Also a problem)
And processed foods....these are things like hot dogs and cut up chickens...as well as chicken fingers etc...those manufacturers are having a huge labor issue. Whole meats that have minimal labor are much cheaper these days. Telling me that labor is a larger problem than ever before. That's going to be true in EVERY industry.
Meaning that automation is going to be more affordable than labor. But automation requires high skilled labor...for design, making, install and maintenance. Again in short supply.

 

[JohnDB]

And don't forget about coffee....
There's real issues with it this year. Spring/summer is generally a low price time of year for it...but prices are already at a 4year high. I'm heavily invested into JO which is an ETN (similar to an ETF but it's sole function is coffee futures using bonds)
I lose around ⅓% between actual growth and JO's price but sometimes the bond market kicks in as well and I gain more than the commodity... either way it's reflecting coffee futures fairly closely. (Which is it's function)

Coffee inventories are at an all time high except in America which has depleted it's inventories. (Shipping container issues again) Also Columbian coffee is not making it to market due to political unrest.
Docks are roadblocked and ship captains are refusing to carry it out anyway. Vietnam is also not producing well this year...and now you have the three largest producers of coffee all having severe issues with getting coffee to market or producing. Get ready to take out a mortgage for the beverage.

It's going to get that bad...no one is shorting the coffee futures...they don't dare...and yes, it's that bad.

 

[Josho]

@JohnDB copper mining shares are back up 4.55% from where I bought it from today....

It seemed like buyers and sellers were having a standoff yesterday, and then some seller gave into the buyers at 0.044 yesterday, which is what I bought it for, but not many shares sold yesterday, it opened at 0.046 today and has been running steady at that since the opening.

It closed at 0.048 on Friday, opened today at 0.047, and back up to 0.048, I am hoping it cracks into 5c territory.

 

[FHII]

So whatcha thinking about boats?

Really haven't looked into it from the investment side of things. My dad was into boating and owned one on a couple of occasions. He was financially well off and could afford one. Probably 80% of Americans can't. And probably only 10% of the 20% who can afford them want one or will want to keep one.

It sounds like a fun hobby, and it is. But it is also a lot of work. The boat is expensive, but so are supplies, maintenance and slip fees. In the end... You gotta be really into it. I gotta feeling that the majority of first time buyers never buy a second.

Maybe if someone provided a cheap alternative to boating the the middle class could afford and maintain, you would have something, but that sounds like a rental or time share thing.

Personally, I wouldn't buy a house right now for anything unless it's a fully staffed retirement home I rent out...give it a couple of years and then buy. Apartments are going to remain inexpensive for a while. (And I do pay over 1500/mo because Nashville TN has a housing shortage and has had one for the past few years.)
So your situation is actually better...

I am a bit different in that I want a house to live in first and as an investment, second. Rentals are too expensive so I don't agree with you that they are inexpensive. Of course, high demand drives the price up. Just my opinion, but rent shouldn't be higher than the cost of a monthly mortgage payment. If you are paying more rent than you would pay for a descent home, you either have a low credit score (thats me) or you really hate doing maintenance. The only other thing could be you just don't want to be tied down.

 

[JohnDB]

Really haven't looked into it from the investment side of things. My dad was into boating and owned one on a couple of occasions. He was financially well off and could afford one. Probably 80% of Americans can't. And probably only 10% of the 20% who can afford them want one or will want to keep one.

It sounds like a fun hobby, and it is. But it is also a lot of work. The boat is expensive, but so are supplies, maintenance and slip fees. In the end... You gotta be really into it. I gotta feeling that the majority of first time buyers never buy a second.

Maybe if someone provided a cheap alternative to boating the the middle class could afford and maintain, you would have something, but that sounds like a rental or time share thing.


I am a bit different in that I want a house to live in first and as an investment, second. Rentals are too expensive so I don't agree with you that they are inexpensive. Of course, high demand drives the price up. Just my opinion, but rent shouldn't be higher than the cost of a monthly mortgage payment. If you are paying more rent than you would pay for a descent home, you either have a low credit score (thats me) or you really hate doing maintenance. The only other thing could be you just don't want to be tied down.

See, the thing is that if you choose well and buy at the right time...you get every penny of every mortgage payment you make back in your hands when you sell it to move again. Plus your down payment...

That's a lot of money to most people... eventually when you one day retire you live in a mortgage free house.
Plus you get a nice place to live in the meantime.

Now an apartment is much cheaper to live in than a house.
I used to have a house...and that was my experience. Between the maintenance and other bills associated with a house it usually costs around 1% of the price of the house every month. Your monthly mortgage payment on a 30Yr fixed is going to be smaller than that...but then...the other costs are going to be higher on a home.

Renting a house is going to be priced the same as if you were buying it. That's the way my real estate friends do it. Some of those houses they rent have been paid for for thirty years or more. He does ok...but the maintenance on them (which the renters never do well with) is a lot higher. Usually a lot of plumbing and electric and trim work... sometimes drywall too. (Leaking Water heaters ignored are a real pain)

The main reason I don't want a house now is I'm not sure for how much longer I will live where I am living. My wife has much more life to her career than mine. I'm able to work anywhere they have electricity and my legs... well they don't have much of a lifespan left to them. (She also is much younger than me)
I'm shocked that I just signed another lease. Wasn't expecting that we would be here this long. But it doesn't cost too much to break one of those either.

I looked at a house I used to own 15 years ago online. I paid 140,000 for it... today it sells for 400,000. That's the result of picking well. I enjoyed the house when I owned it and when I sold it I got every penny I paid in mortgage payment back. You need to do the same. If I was to buy it again I'd use the same calculations. (But I don't and won't)

There's better neighborhoods to buy into here than that one.

Boating industry has been doing well. A lot of people like to buy boats for things like salmon fishing and tuna fishing and charters as a small business. Then there's also waterskiing...Wicked Tuna show has made it really popular. People with more dollars than sense buy them for sporting and vacations...

And where I agree with you about them being a lot of work and money....that hasn't stopped many people from buying them and taking them out on the water as a getaway vacation. Question for me is if the trend for strong sales is going to continue.

 

[JohnDB]

It closed at 0.048 on Friday, opened today at 0.047, and back up to 0.048, I am hoping it cracks into 5c territory.

If it does...then you are in good shape for a 25% return... you are up... and usually after around a 20-25% run up I'm ready to begin taking profits. It takes a lot of good signals for me to hang out much after that. (Like stronger accumulation signals than when I bought into it)

I used to be somewhat shy about trading commodities or commodity related stocks. There's a lot of reasons for it but mostly because of the sheer volume of research needed...and back when I first traded that information was a lot harder to come by.

But where the workload hasn't changed the information is much more readily available than ever before.

I'm keeping a very close eye on coffee futures...it had a huge run up on Friday in light trading. I'm wondering what Tuesday is going to bring...it might be that I take profits then and watch it crash or it will skyrocket up even more. There's been some profit taking but the prices rose anyway. Also the high prices on light trading is a sign of overextended prices. But the candle has no wick to speak of either...that's a bullish sign.

So I'm going to watch it carefully... very carefully.

 

[Josho]

If it does...then you are in good shape for a 25% return... you are up... and usually after around a 20-25% run up I'm ready to begin taking profits. It takes a lot of good signals for me to hang out much after that. (Like stronger accumulation signals than when I bought into it)

I used to be somewhat shy about trading commodities or commodity related stocks. There's a lot of reasons for it but mostly because of the sheer volume of research needed...and back when I first traded that information was a lot harder to come by.

But where the workload hasn't changed the information is much more readily available than ever before.

I'm keeping a very close eye on coffee futures...it had a huge run up on Friday in light trading. I'm wondering what Tuesday is going to bring...it might be that I take profits then and watch it crash or it will skyrocket up even more. There's been some profit taking but the prices rose anyway. Also the high prices on light trading is a sign of overextended prices. But the candle has no wick to speak of either...that's a bullish sign.

So I'm going to watch it carefully... very carefully.

I could have made more on the Silver shares, that closed at 33c today, so I could have had a 30% profit if I hung on, but then again timing doesn't always work out to make other trades work with that. I now like to have something in mind before I reach the point of selling and buying other shares, and I would give myself a few options, just in case some are too much all of a sudden, diving or a good buyers price.

My copper shares closed at 0.049 today, it's nearly in 5c land.

And I just saw the Tax Office here in Australia is going to crack down on Crypto traders this upcoming tax time, not sure if they are going to do the same in USA. It does not sound fun getting tax audited though.