View attachment 71855
For the past 20 years, Russian media has been pushing a narrative that Israel is on the brink of collapse, with millions of Jews supposedly set to flee back to Russia, and this would somehow benefit the Russian Federation. This narrative often intertwines with another: that the war in Ukraine was orchestrated by Jews to clear territory for future Israeli settlers. The statistics, however, tell a different story.
Share of repatriates in Israel in 2025 (1991–2025, repatriates only):
CIS (total): 81% (1,519,000).
Russia: 38% (707,600).
Ukraine: 26% (481,650).
Other CIS countries: 18% (329,750).
Western Europe: 9% (170,500).
USA: 6% (110,000).
Other regions: 4% (70,500).
Reality paints a clear picture: people continue to emigrate from CIS countries to Israel, not the other way around. Recent data confirms this trend. After the Ukraine conflict began in 2014, repatriation from the CIS spiked:
In 2015, Ukraine provided 7,200 repatriates (30% of the total), Russia 4,700 (20%), and the CIS overall accounted for about 60% of all repatriates.
In 2022, following the full-scale war, Russia and Ukraine together made up 80% of repatriates: 28,000 from Russia (40%) and 28,000 from Ukraine (40%).
By comparison, repatriation from other regions remains minimal: In 2015, Western Europe contributed 1,200 people (5%, mostly from France), and the USA 500 (2%).
In 2022, the USA provided 3,000 (4%), and Western Europe 3,500 (5%).
These figures clearly show that the CIS, particularly Russia and Ukraine, remains the primary source of repatriates to Israel. In contrast, motivation to "become Jewish" and repatriate from Western Europe or the USA remains low.
These numbers are calculated based on data from Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), which states that as of late 2024, Israel’s population is 10.027 million, of which 7.707 million (76.9%) are non-Arabs (primarily Jews and other non-Arab groups), and 2.1 million (21%) are Arabs or Palestinians. Thus, repatriates and their descendants are part of the non-Arab population (7.707 million).
These 1.7 million people trace their roots to the CIS, from where they or their ancestors once emigrated. But here’s the question: if these repatriates were to “return home,” how many would actually go back to Russia or Ukraine? Likely very few. For instance, Israeli-Ukrainians are unlikely to choose Ukraine as a destination given its current situation. They’d more likely opt for stable economies with established diasporas, like the USA, Canada, or EU countries, where significant Ukrainian communities already exist.
Even if, hypothetically, all 1.3 million Ukrainian repatriates and their descendants returned to Ukraine, it wouldn’t be enough to offset the country’s demographic losses. At the USSR’s collapse, Ukraine’s population was around 52 million; by 2025, estimates suggest it has dwindled to 30–35 million due to migration, low birth rates, and war-related losses. Even 1.5 million repatriates would be a drop in the bucket for Ukraine’s demographic recovery. To address such losses, Ukraine would need to rely on other sources, like migration from Africa or Asia, but Israel alone can’t fill that gap.
Now, let’s consider two opposing scenarios often discussed regarding Israel’s future:
1.
Russian propaganda claims Israel will soon be “destroyed,” with repatriates flooding back to Russia. Yet, the data debunks this: instead of returning to Russia or Ukraine, the flow of repatriates from these countries to Israel continues to grow.
2. The “
Greater Israel” scenario, popular among American and Israeli Zionists and some Christian groups like Christian Zionists, envisions Israel’s expansion and the building of the Third Temple in Jerusalem. But where would the population for this “Greater Israel” come from?
For the “Greater Israel” scenario to work, conditions would need to drive a new wave of repatriation from the CIS. And what do we see? Since 2014, and especially after 2022, instability in Russia and Ukraine has already sparked a “second demographic wave.” For example, in 2022, 56,000 repatriates arrived from Russia and Ukraine—80% of the year’s total. This shows a direct correlation between crises in the CIS and surges in repatriation to Israel.
The primary source of repatriates is the CIS, with Russia and Ukraine accounting for up to 80% of Israel’s new citizens in crisis years. This confirms that the “Greater Israel” scenario has a real demographic foundation, fueled by instability in the CIS rather than the mythical notion of a “return” to Russia. If this trend continues, CIS countries—especially Russia and Ukraine—will remain key sources for the growth of Israel’s Jewish population, while the idea of a mass return of repatriates to the CIS looks utterly unrealistic.
