There are two main reasons why I do not believe that the phrase Water and Spirit can refer to baptism. Firstly, if baptism is intended by this phrase then that ordinance is absolutely necessary for salvation. ‘Unless one is born of water and the Spirit, he cannot enter the kingdom of God’.
In John 3 Jesus speaks of one birth that contains two elements; water and Spirit. The role of water is water baptism as can be seen a few verses later, John 3:22-23. The role of the Spirit is His word that He authored. The word saves (James 1:21) in that it instructs men on how to be saved (water baptism). Those that obey those instructions gain the promise of salvation are said to have been "born again..by the word of God" 1 Peter 1:23; "begotten through the gospel" 1 Corinthians 4:15; begat with the word James 1:18. The Bible being its own best commentary, we can see these two elements in other 'born again' verses:
John 3:5------------------
Spirit+++++++++++++
water>>>>>>>>>>>>
in the kingdom
1 Corinthians 12:13------
SPirit+++++++++++
baptized>>>>>>>>>>>>
in the body
Titus 3:5----------------
Holy Ghost++++++++
laver of water>>>>>>>>>
saved
Ephesians 5:26-----------
the word++++++++
laver of water>>>>>>>>>
cleansed
Since there is just one way to be born again/
saved/cleansed/enter the kingdom/body, no alternatives, then all these verses must be expressing the exact same idea meaning "
water" is equivalent to "
baptized" which is equivalent to '
laver of water"
Water baptism has been commanded by God and for that reason alone makes it a necessity. One must do the will of the Father to enter the kingdom Matthew 7:21.
Matthew 7:21----------doeth the will of My Father>>>>>>>>>>>>>enter into the kingdom
John 3:5---------------born of water and Spirit>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>enter the kingdom of God
Again, there is just one way to be saved/enter the kingdom, no alternatives, therefore being water baptized (born of water and Spirit) is equivalent to doing the will of God in submitting to God's command to be water baptized.
Pharisees as Nicodemus had not been born again having rejected the baptism of John Luke 7:30 cf John 3:22-23 cf Mark 1:4. Therefore if one had not been baptized/born again, then that was his own fault and culpability for rejecting being baptized. Yet if John 3:5 refers to baptism with the Holy Spirit as some claim, then Nicodemus and others cannot be held accountable for not being born again for being baptized with the HS was out of their control. Since Jesus Christ is the One Who baptizes with the Holy Spirit (Matthew 3:11) it would be Jesus' culpability for not having baptized Nicodemus and others with the Holy Spirit.