Let me tell you my thinking on this... Yes, I get it that malls are reopening, but the retail stores I have been following are not in malls (Walmart, TJ Maxx, Big Lots, Dollar General).
With the exception of TJ Maxx,the other stores never closed and they boomed. TJX did well for a while once they opened too. I did well with all these stocks except Big Lots (sold too late because of sentimental reasons... I work for them). Last quarter was solid, but since then sales are down. Since you taught me about Forward PE and PE... BIG's forward PE is almost triple the current. I'm keeping my eye on them in the future, but I think it was the right move to get out for now.
As for malls... I don't share your enthusiasm. Malls unfortunately have been dying. Anchor stores like Sears and JC Penny are disappearing. Where I am, mall traffic has been declining for 10 years, and most of the folks there are youngsters (who look more to cause trouble and hook up with their friends than shop).
Finally, you can't ignore the stimulus checks. Folks didn't use them to pay bills or invest; they spent them at retail stores and on home improvement (Thus, Lowes and Home Depot did well). I doubt we will get another, but then again, who knows what President Biden will do?
So thats my reasoning... Let me know what your counterpoints are if you have time (I remain a humble student here!!!)
Well I live in an apartment and I understand clearly why the house market is booming: its because a monthly mortgage payment is cheaper than renting by a while lot! renting... I have a great deal on my rent, but otherwise rent can be $1200-1500 a month. A monthy mortgage payment is about half that with good credit. Duh!
I almost bought a house... We were about 30 points shy on our credit score (which dropped 25 points after their credit check)
You are out there more than I... able to see better than me.
I know about malls...and I agree with you about going mall shopping in general. Kohl's is hit or miss around here... you might catch them full or empty. (Free standing store). I was thinking more about the strip malls than the type that you are talking about.
The problem I seen in stores lately is a huge lack of labor and a lack of products on the shelf. That has to be a problem with sales generation. The dollars per sq foot is going to be down...sure their labor costs are going to be well inside of margins...but finding clothes my size that fit was extremely problematic...and I was just looking for jeans and shirts...and I'm just an average size. (36X30)
So you might be right...it might be that some of those stocks are going to be pump and dump...
Thank you for the heads up... working together about the things we see are always beneficial.
So whatcha thinking about boats? Besides the fact that they are a hole in the water you pour money into...we got BC and HZO...
Brunswick is a major boat manufacturer. Marinemax is a retailer dealing in both new and used boats. I'm thinking that both are done for the season...(buy on rumor and sell on fact) For retail specialty both have done well but HZO missed performing on it's last cup with handle. But I dumped out on the handle...but I was thinking about picking them up again... dunno.
Then there's the whole housing construction market... supply chain interruptions are crippling it currently. Demand is staying too high and they can't complete them fast enough yet. I'm still long on CCS as a Contractor/Retailer...I think that they will continue to be strong "IF" they can give some good, strong, forward guidance at their next ER. Profits are expected to be beyond expectations...and expectations are already high. (I bought them back in the mid to low 60's) so I'm solid with them with earnings at this point...just hanging out for dividends and more capital gains...
Personally, I wouldn't buy a house right now for anything unless it's a fully staffed retirement home I rent out...give it a couple of years and then buy. Apartments are going to remain inexpensive for a while. (And I do pay over 1500/mo because Nashville TN has a housing shortage and has had one for the past few years.)
So your situation is actually better...yes I know that you want a house...but at these prices you aren't going to make any profit for a while. The bottom will fall out in a few years...wages will have increased and affordability will rule again.
Supply chains are the problem. Interruptions are the killer. Same thing with automobiles...
Anyone who can overcome those issues is the winner.
Sure a load of chips came for the car makers but how about the foam for the seats? (Also a problem)
And processed foods....these are things like hot dogs and cut up chickens...as well as chicken fingers etc...those manufacturers are having a huge labor issue. Whole meats that have minimal labor are much cheaper these days. Telling me that labor is a larger problem than ever before. That's going to be true in EVERY industry.
Meaning that automation is going to be more affordable than labor. But automation requires high skilled labor...for design, making, install and maintenance. Again in short supply.