Who is Paul discussing in 2 Thessalonians 2?

[covenantee]

Before I continue answering your questions, could you please state your own position clearly?

Do you believe that ethnic Israel ceased to be God’s covenant people after rejecting Christ, so that God now has no distinct future purpose for the Jewish people?

And how do you understand Paul’s statement that unbelieving Israel remains “beloved for the sake of the fathers,” and that “the gifts and calling of God are irrevocable” (Romans 11:28–29)?

Israel from its birth was comprised of both Jews and Gentiles. God's covenant people were the Jews and Gentiles faithful and obedient to Him and His Covenant, within the nation.

Genesis 17:12
And he that is eight days old shall be circumcised among you, every man child in your generations, he that is born in the house, or bought with money of any stranger, which is not of thy seed.

Exodus 12:48
And when a stranger shall sojourn with thee, and will keep the passover to the Lord, let all his males be circumcised, and then let him come near and keep it; and he shall be as one that is born in the land: for no uncircumcised person shall eat thereof.

Exodus 12:49
One law shall be to him that is homeborn, and unto the stranger that sojourneth among you.

Leviticus 19:34
But the stranger that dwelleth with you shall be unto you as one born among you, and thou shalt love him as thyself; for ye were strangers in the land of Egypt: I am the Lord your God.

Leviticus 24:22
Ye shall have one manner of law, as well for the stranger, as for one of your own country: for I am the Lord your God.


Those faithful and obedient within the nation, God blessed.

Those unfaithful and disobedient, He slew. Ethnicity was and is irrelevant.

Numbers 25
9 And those that died in the plague were twenty and four thousand.

There has never been any substitute, ethnicity or otherwise, to this day, for faith and obedience.

 

[CTK]

Israel from its birth was comprised of both Jews and Gentiles. God's covenant people were the Jews and Gentiles faithful and obedient to Him and His Covenant, within the nation.

Genesis 17:12
And he that is eight days old shall be circumcised among you, every man child in your generations, he that is born in the house, or bought with money of any stranger, which is not of thy seed.

Exodus 12:48
And when a stranger shall sojourn with thee, and will keep the passover to the Lord, let all his males be circumcised, and then let him come near and keep it; and he shall be as one that is born in the land: for no uncircumcised person shall eat thereof.

Exodus 12:49
One law shall be to him that is homeborn, and unto the stranger that sojourneth among you.

Leviticus 19:34
But the stranger that dwelleth with you shall be unto you as one born among you, and thou shalt love him as thyself; for ye were strangers in the land of Egypt: I am the Lord your God.

Leviticus 24:22
Ye shall have one manner of law, as well for the stranger, as for one of your own country: for I am the Lord your God.


Those faithful and obedient within the nation, God blessed.

Those unfaithful and disobedient, He slew. Ethnicity was and is irrelevant.

Numbers 25
9 And those that died in the plague were twenty and four thousand.

There has never been any substitute, ethnicity or otherwise, to this day, for faith and obedience.

I agree with part of what you are saying. Faith and obedience were always necessary for anyone to enjoy God’s covenant blessings, and Gentiles were permitted to join Israel’s covenant community. But the verses you quoted do not show that ethnicity was irrelevant. They show that a stranger could be incorporated into Israel. The stranger had to be circumcised, keep the Passover, and live under the law God gave to Israel. Israel was not being absorbed into a mixed nation with no ethnic identity; the stranger was being received into the covenant life of Israel.

I think we need to distinguish between three things:

Who belonged ethnically to Israel,​

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who participated in Israel’s covenant community,​

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and who was personally faithful to God.​

An ethnic Israelite could be disobedient and judged, yet still remain an Israelite. A faithful Gentile could join Israel, yet that did not erase Israel’s historical identity as the people descended from Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob. So I agree that ancestry never guaranteed salvation. But that is different from saying ancestry and national identity were irrelevant to God’s historical purposes. Paul holds both truths together. Unbelieving Israelites are not saved merely because of ancestry, yet he still says they are “beloved for the sake of the fathers” and that “the gifts and calling of God are irrevocable” (Romans 11:28–29).

So perhaps the central question is this:

Do you believe Israel’s unfaithfulness erased God’s historical promises to the nation, or only excluded unfaithful individuals from the blessings of those promises?

From your comments, it appears that you believe God’s covenant people have always been defined only by faith and obedience, not by ethnic descent. In that view, faithful Gentiles were included among God’s people, while unfaithful Jews were excluded, meaning ethnic Israel no longer retains any distinct covenant identity or future purpose simply because of its descent from Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob.