Who is Paul discussing in 2 Thessalonians 2?

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Earburner

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If Paul had believed that all ethnic Israel would be saved, he would have been beyond ecstatic.

But he wasn't, and we've seen the distinctions that he draws between the Israel that will be saved and the Israel that will not be saved.

The difference being between faithfulness and obedience, and unfaithfulness and disobedience.

A microcosm of the entirety of humanity.
I sincerely believe that when Christians position themselves into this severe dichotomy for understanding, of how it is that "not all of Israel is Israel" and yet we also read that "all of Israel shall be saved", it is all due to the fact that neither of the christian positions are understanding who the symbolic 144,000 of the nation of Israel truly are.

The 144k has nothing to do with the NC. but rather everything to do with the OC. It is from "under the altar" of the OC. that the 144,000 originate from. Mal. 3:16-18; Rev. 6:9-11.
The 144k of OC Israel were each "sealed" with the Holy Spirit of Promise [white robe] upon the day when Christ was "glorified" in His resurrection.
John 7:39 (But this spake he of the Spirit, which they that believe on him should receive: for the Holy Ghost was not yet [permanently] given [to anyone]; because that Jesus was not yet glorified [resurrected].)

In other words, the symbolic number of the 144,000 are from ALL of the tribes of OC. Israel of faith, who lived and died in faith "under the altar" of OC. Israel.

Now, during this present Age of God's Grace, those of Israel who are Born again through faith in Jesus, AFTER His resurrection, they are now OF THE Great Multitude, along with the Gentiles who have also believed.

So yes, in that construct, I believe that all mature Christains who are Born again, do understand that both those of Israel and those of the Gentile nations, who have accepted the Lord Jesus as their Savior are indeed the fulfilment of the words: "and so shall all of Israel be saved"
Rom. 11
25 For I would not, brethren, that ye should be ignorant of this mystery, lest ye should be wise in your own conceits; that blindness in part is happened to Israel, until the fulness of the Gentiles be come in.
26 And so all Israel shall be saved [meaning both Jew and Gentile now have equal opportunity to enter into God's plan of Salvation]: as it is written, There shall come out of Sion the Deliverer, and shall turn away ungodliness from Jacob:

And for that, WE ALL DO KNOW that the Deliverer Jesus HAS COME!
 
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CTK

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I sincerely believe that when Christians position themselves into this severe dichotomy for understanding, of how it is that "not all of Israel is Israel" and yet we also read that "all of Israel shall be saved", it is all due to the fact that neither of the christian positions are understanding who the symbolic 144,000 of the nation of Israel truly are.

The 144k has nothing to do with the NC. but rather everything to do with the OC. It is from "under the altar" of the OC. that the 144,000 originate from. Mal. 3:16-18; Rev. 6:9-11.
The 144k of OC Israel were each "sealed" with the Holy Spirit of Promise [white robe] upon the day when Christ was "glorified" in His resurrection.
John 7:39 (But this spake he of the Spirit, which they that believe on him should receive: for the Holy Ghost was not yet [permanently] given [to anyone]; because that Jesus was not yet glorified [resurrected].)

In other words, the symbolic number of the 144,000 are from ALL of the tribes of OC. Israel of faith, who lived and died in faith "under the altar" of OC. Israel.

Now, during this present Age if God's Grace, those of Israel who are Born again through faith in Jesus, AFTER His resurrection, they are now OF THE Great Multitude, along with the Gentiles who have also believed.

I am not sure I see Revelation making the connections you are making. Please consider -

Revelation 6 does not identify the souls under the altar as the 144,000. They are described as people who were slain for the word of God and their testimony. Revelation 7 then introduces 144,000 servants who are sealed before judgment is released upon the earth.

Likewise, the white robes given to the martyrs are not identified as the seal of the Holy Spirit. Revelation normally uses white garments to represent righteousness, purity, victory, or vindication, while the 144,000 are specifically sealed upon their foreheads.

John 7:39 teaches that the Holy Spirit was given after Jesus was glorified, but it does not say that faithful Israelites who had already died were then posthumously sealed and numbered as the 144,000.

The timing in Revelation 7 seems especially important. The 144,000 are sealed before the winds are released and are called “the servants of our God.” That sounds like preparation for a coming work or trial, rather than simply identifying Old Covenant believers who had already died.

So I am not sure the text itself establishes that:

the souls under the altar are the 144,000,​
their white robes are the Holy Spirit’s seal,​
or the 144,000 consist exclusively of faithful Israelites who died before the cross.​