The Watchtower failed 1914 prophecy:
Russell's
Studies in the Scriptures series had explicitly identified October 1914 as the "full end of the times of the Gentiles" and consequently the "farthest limit" of human rulership.
[15] It would bring the beginning of Christ's millennial reign
[1] and all his followers expected the immediate "translation of the saints" to rule with the revealed Christ that year. Following the earth's tribulation and unrest, the Jews would return to God's favor, the "nominal Church" would have fallen, the final battle between Christ and
Satan would have ended, the kingdoms of the world would be overthrown, and Christ would have gathered his saints into heaven, where they would reign with him, and when the millennium would begin.
[1]The belief was unequivocal, based on his study of the Bible and the
Great Pyramid, and satisfied only upon the establishment of an earthly paradise; Russell remarked that by altering the prophecy even one year would destroy the perfect symmetry of its biblical chronology.
[16] In the second book of his Studies in the Scriptures series he described it as "an established truth that the final end of the kingdoms of this world, and the full establishment of the Kingdom of God, will be accomplished at the end of A.D. 1914".
[17] The result, he wrote, was that "all present governments will be overthrown and dissolved",
[17] along with the destruction of "what God calls Babylon, and what men call Christendom".
[18]In an 1894 Watch Tower, responding to readers who questioned whether—because of recent political upheavals—the world could last until 1914, he wrote:
As 1914 approached, excitement mounted over the expected "change" of anointed Christians.
[5] Early that year some Bible Students, convinced the end of the world had arrived, began distributing their material belongings, abandoning their jobs and eagerly anticipating the future.
[20] In May 1914—five months from the expected end—Russell warned followers against succumbing to doubt:
But by September, Russell was preparing
Watch Tower readers for the possibility that "Armageddon may begin next spring, yet it is purely speculation to attempt to say just when." Yet the evidence, he wrote, still pointed "to the year just before us—particularly the early months".
[22]
When again nothing took place, predictions regressed to their earlier short-term orientation. The Watch Tower wrote: "It may be that many of the Lord's people were expecting more than they should have looked for to occur with the opening of the Jewish year 1915, which began with September 21. The human mind seems to have a natural tendency, and one with which we should have sympathy, to expect matters to culminate more rapidly, fulfillments to come more suddenly, than they ever do come ... Studying God's Word, we have measured the 2520 years, the Seven symbolic Times, from that year 606 B.C. and have found that it reached down to October, 1914, as nearly as we were able to reckon. We did not say positively that this would be the year. We merely left every one to look at the facts of history and reckon for himself."
[23]
He took that opportunity to remind readers of some cautionary pronouncements he had made several years earlier. In 1912 he had left open the possibility that, if nothing happened in October 1914, it could still happen in October 1915. He also pointed out that the period of transition could run "a good many years".
[16]
In a lengthy article of consolation, Russell wrote that it was a testing time for Christ's disciples and that some Bible Students had unreal expectations. He said it was also possible that God's Kingdom on earth would be established gradually:
[13][16]
Yet on October 2, 1914, he entered the staff dining room at the Watch Tower Society headquarters and declared that the Gentile times had ended and that "their kings have had their day."
[1] It signaled that God had withdrawn his benevolent disposition towards the Christian nations.
[23] The statement implied that the legitimacy of earthly governments had been downgraded in the eyes of God, which sociologist Joseph Zygmunt suggested may have contributed to the subsequent adoption of bolder tactics in condemning the global political system.
[5]
Russell viewed the outbreak of
World War I as the beginning of Armageddon, which would soon descend into worldwide revolution
[24] and in 1916, shortly before his death, he reaffirmed his conviction that the end was close and the harvest of saints was ongoing:
In posthumous editions of his Studies in the Scriptures, entire sections were rewritten to accommodate the failure of the anticipated events, with 1914 now identified as "the beginning of the end of Gentile times". The outbreak of World War I was taken to be its confirmation. Sociologist James Beckford claimed that Russell's "sometimes ingenious" ex post factorationalizations of events in 1914 contributed to the survival of the Bible Student movement.[13] Under doctrinal changes introduced by his successor, Joseph Franklin Rutherford, it was later decided that the Millennium would come within the generation of those who saw the events of 1914. The years of 1799 and 1874, until then significant dates in Russell's millennial chronology, were also abandoned.[16]
Yet Chrissides said there was no clear failure of the predictions surrounding 1914. "Although there was clear disappointment at the non-occurrence of certain empirically observable events, a number of the events to which Russell alludes are incapable of disconfirmation. One cannot verify the beginning of Christ's sovereign rule, the cleansing of the sanctuary, and the admission to heaven of those who have experienced the 'high calling'. Even events like the ending of the Gentile times do not have obvious empirical indicators."
[1]
