Traders and Investors

[JohnDB]

Well the VIX is flat and Dow is up...so probably going to be a decent day on Monday if the volume goes up from the dead trading day on Friday. I got a few plays to check out Monday morning...

See if I can't make a little money.

 

[JohnDB]

Well...
It's looking like a good Monday...

The VIX is way down...Futures are up.

And even Silver had a nice price increase overnight along with platinum. Which means that industries are buying them. Which is a good thing...the economies are preparing to open up and getting materials and parts ready for returning workers to help fill orders. The order for 150 Boeing aircraft last week is a harbinger of things to come.

A welcome sign but in reality what really needs to be seen is vaccination records. Huge gains will be the proof of good things. And I'm watching it.

Then...I'm looking at boats and boat manufacturers. Might be a good idea. Dunno until I do all the research as to which fishing and cruise ship manufacturing company is doing well. Charter fishing boats and pleasure boats are going to have a nice ride in demand...who is making them and doing well is something that might make money.

 

[JohnDB]

Well... tonight the VIX is up but all other futures and indices are flat.

Everyone is holding their breath to find out what the Fed Chairman is going to do tomorrow with rates. Inflation is the problem and worry.
So everyone is keeping their powder dry and their arrows notched to deal with the news as it comes out.
Will they raise rates to stem inflation?

The somewhat expected answer is "no"
But I really don't put any faith in that fortune telling. I believe my charts way more than what the Fed Chairman is going to do and the guidance he will offer.

And in truth the only thing I'm holding is some microsoft stock. It's a bell weather anyway and primed for busting up sky high in the near future. Kinda expecting it to hit 300 before the year is out. And a 30% gain on a blue chip stock isn't exactly bad. I know of mutual funds that don't do as well.

But that won't stop me from dumping it if it has a huge run up after a stock split. (Another rumor that is circulating about)

Stock splits regularly give 3-6% immediate returns. And with this stock currently missing a chunk of valuation...it would help the price. But they just issued new bonds @3% and won't renew the older issued bonds at lower rates. They will allow them to be redeemed. Kinda interesting...means that they will be paying down debt. Further increasing share value and it showed today in the market. (I wasn't upset about that in the least)

Maybe the Fed Chairman will have good news for us all tomorrow. We shall see.

Half Santa and half Satan himself. You really don't know until it's over.

 

[JohnDB]

Oh...
Something important for people to understand...

SEC.gov | SEC Obtains Emergency Asset Freeze, Charges California Trader with Posting False Stock Tweets.

Stock tips from social media.

Totally goes against the rules I use for trading. Mostly because of the old axiom about "Pigs getting fed slop and hogs get slaughtered."
There are places to go for where to begin to look for companies to invest in. Social media outlets are not it.
And even though the respectable outlets that usually have sound advice try to drum up excitement to buy a particular stock...that's all there is about that...a starting point. One of the names put into a funnel.

I then look at the chart. See if it is actionable. I then look at the fundamentals of the company. PE ratios (forward and trailing), PEG, short interest, cash flows, sales, and performance of earnings. I look for new products for their business model...all kinds of things that will affect sales. I ask who are their customers and largest customers and who is increasing purchases. Client base is how wide? Then I check multiple analyst's thoughts on the company in relation to the sector. Then lastly I look to social media outlets to ensure that this company is off the radar of social media.

Then I set my target points...my entry prices and rough targets for exit.

Of course all this dry reading is boring...of course this is not fun. But this is called due diligence. This is why I make good trades and make money at it.

Yesterday alone I went through analyzing 60 different companies and found four that I might buy today. Might not...it completely depends on what happens.

Out of reputable sources I hear over 100 different stocks. (Multiple sources)
From that I got 60 stocks to look at.

From the 60 I got four that I might act on. Others that might be actionable in the future.

And today I might buy one or two.

And now you know why "pigs get fed slop".
Thats hours and hours of boring research for one or two trades that might work out...just for someone else to ask for a free ride?

Puhhhlleeeeze.

 

[JohnDB]

One of the things that brings success is the research into a stock.

Look at it's chart. Know exactly how a stock behaves over earnings or over other news.
Know how it's going to behave before it does it.

Now invariably I will buy a stock and it will get cheaper within a few minutes...and it's always depressing. I've lost money instantly...

But because I know what I've done...I also know that it's going to rise. If not today then tomorrow. And I will make money. I know when a stock (by looking at it's chart) when it's going up and when it's in for a long slide down.
And that takes looking at a chart for days sometimes... know the history of its behavior...why does it move the way it moves? If I buy somewhere around here what's the likely outcome?
Know it's daily breathing and it's major moves. It's always going to have a particular look going up...and a particular look just before it tanks.

Nobody has ever made perfect trades...it doesn't happen ever. But at the end of the day if you end up on the plus side... you are successful. End of story. We always want more...I know that I do. And it's not the money...it's just the success of doing it well that drives me... always looking to improve performance. Even with my culinary talents I want to always be better than before....and I am a four star chef. Doesn't mean that I think that I am perfect in the kitchen. I always see the tiny flaws in every dish. The diners are moaning in delight at every bite but I can't accept their praise because I see the small flaws in the dish. The exact same thing applies to trading...I see the few pennies I could have gotten the stock cheaper. *Sigh*

And at the end of the day...I am successful because of all the time and energy into research and knowing what to do and when.

Yes, this is a bit like fortune telling... trying to predict the future. But it's also educated guessing... natural conscequenses of a particular situation. And where I am right more often than not...I readily admit that it's just a guess...on any given day something can happen and you lose your money. It's a risk. A surfer in the ocean will tell you that he just rides the waves. He only can make very small ones that aren't good for riding. He is at the mercy of the ocean. But because he knows the timing and the signs he can ride far and fast on the waves coming.

Money is just a tool...but it can be a game. A fun one if you let it. And just because you aren't the number one winner doesn't mean that you didn't do well. Warren Buffett is that number one winner...but I really don't like him. Sure he's successful in money. But he has a lot of flaws as a person. Ones I'm not willing to sell my soul for in exchange of a few dollars.

But I still like winning.

 

[JohnDB]

Well this morning doesn't look brighter...the VIX is down but not enough for me. The futures look mildly up as treasury yields gave up a couple of points...but too little too late. I'm expecting more falling prices today. It happened at the beginning of this month...more is coming as again more Government caused intrusion into the markets have harmed investors. (That's all retirees and working people who hold IRAs)

I highly recommend not going long on any tech stocks. I'm seeing all the signs of a huge bear market. Lots of huge PE ratios, free short term money, spiking Treasury Bond prices, and skittish investors.

The only thing up is shorting ETFs and financials. And with sluggish housing starts... probably not going to be so for long with lumber hitting the highs as it has lately.
And I'm really upset with myself as I missed WSM and another yesterday....had them both in my funnel but overlooked them.

Oh well... can't win them all. But I'd like to win more.

 

[JohnDB]

Well this morning the VIX is up slightly as well as 10&30 year bonds...they were up higher last night but fell back off their highs.

Futures are mixed or flat...the NIK is down but most of EU is flat. Dow and Nasdaq are flat or slightly down.

This is the Day after a quadruple Witching day...stats show that 9/10 times it's down after such an event. So keep your powder dry and crash helmet handy...

But... also be ready by the end of day to pick up your favorites for a slow march back up.

JUST REMEMBER THIS IS FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES AND THAT I AM NOT LICENSED TO TELL ANYONE ANYTHING. THESE ARE JUST THE OPINIONS OF ONE GUY WHO HAS BEEN ON VACATION FOR 30 YEARS.

Chances are only a few will rise...but most will fall. And everyone is anxious to find a winner. And if you are holding one like WSM was last week... you are a winner. But because it had great news everyone glommed on and took that thing to the moon. If I was holding it I'd take profits at this point... because that thing is likely to come down a bit...just like a few other specialty retailers.

Inflation rumors abound...and Jimmy Carter did a number on America the last time we had it. Double Digit inflation is nasty business and Biden doesn't seem to care about it...just like Carter. Yes, during periods of inflation, interest rates go through the roof but not as much as equities or can interest rates keep value with the pace of inflation.

If you get 12% return on a bond... you likely will get at least 15-20 on equities. Same with adjusted commodities.

So...just saying that stocks do better than bond rates during inflation periods. Margins get tight and profits fall for a split second but then everything catches up immediately and margins return. Because everyone expects rising prices during inflation.

And in my state...they just opened up the vaccination roles for well over half the state. I imagine they are doing the same thing everywhere.

But again...things don't really improve until the rest of the world gets vaxxed. And that's a ways off yet. France just went into a new quarantine last week because they were experiencing a huge surge. It's not over yet...over half a million have died...more than that have had permanent damage and are now disabled. (One committed suicide over the disability he got from Covid)

So...we patiently wait. We watch...and make plans for a better day.

 

[JohnDB]

Well... today was another rough day... Market started up...grew higher and then promptly tanked.
China related stocks are especially vulnerable and volatile lately. If a company depends upon PRC materials or sales in PRC then I would avoid it.
I'm not racist, there's a trade war currently going on. Taiwanese companies are doing ok...granted they are in a water crisis...but they are doing all they can to fix it and one monsoon will fix their problems. They are in full tilt in hiring anyone and everyone for labor.
Hong Kong is also doing OK... Beijing is the problem. And Hong Kong's sentiment towards Beijing is not positive either at the moment.
Shanghai is going along for the moment but they have their grumbles too.

Just saying that playing with Chinese stocks like playing in a casino. A complete gamble no matter what metrics you are seeing.

 

[amigo de christo]

Get those investments in JESUS CHRIST . heavenly treasure . Oh let the LORD be praised .
HE is our treasure and riches . PRAISE the GLORIOUS KING .

 

[JohnDB]

Get those investments in JESUS CHRIST . heavenly treasure . Oh let the LORD be praised .
HE is our treasure and riches . PRAISE the GLORIOUS KING .

Currently there's a push for "sustainable company" investing...

IDC about it...I already had a moral code for what companies I invest in and those I refuse to. I haven't put one dime into marijuana, guns, or gambling companies and don't plan on it in the future.

There's plenty of places to go without doing so even though these have been highly touted and people have made money in them. But even more have been burned by them.
I refuse.
Because I fear/love The King more than I like money.

 

[FHII]

I trade on Stash. It allows folks to get into the market with as little as $5. They have programs where you can earn free stock. With that, even though I am down about 2%, my portfolio has grown beyond what I have invested.

There are some downsides to stash, but for me its great and I am happy with it as a start.

 

[JohnDB]

I trade on Stash. It allows folks to get into the market with as little as $5. They have programs where you can earn free stock. With that, even though I am down about 2%, my portfolio has grown beyond what I have invested.

There are some downsides to stash, but for me its great and I am happy with it as a start.

Anybody who started trading since the election ended has made great gains. The market's latest downturn in October was fairly severe...but the one centered on March 5 was bad too. Problem is that I'm not really sure that the Market has recovered from that last dip like everyone claims it has.

I've focused on American companies that don't have much to do with China except as competition.

Caterpillar, Home Depot, and fertilizer/farming stocks have been doing well. Not glamorous for sure...but this isn't about glamour.
Caterpillar for the Government infrastructure investments (also durable, quality products) and Home Depot for summertime handymen. Fertilizer/farming because groceries are going up...a lot.

 

[JohnDB]

Today after close...

Now traders and Investors look at charts for particular formations in the charts...it's all part of the fortune telling that we do.
And there's usually good reasons to look at these formations because it pays off so very often. But also these formations have to be in conjunction with the right amount of volume and right company technicals. Or it means nothing.

One of these formations is the inverse "head and shoulders". And I don't want to get too deep into it except to say that there are those who believe that the bear is finished because of the inverse head and shoulders of the Nasdaq.

And so I looked at a bunch of companies that are pretty good indicators of following the Nasdaq. The charts look lousy. They all look ready to tank. So I'm out completely. I wasn't doing too great anyway.

I've seen an occasional V in market days for the indexes. But a "W"? What's next? An "M"?

Everyone is getting corkscrewed out of any position they try to hold for more than a few hours. You can't short or long any stock. Even the hedge funds are losing patience and money in this market.
(Thank you Mr. President)

And I'm out of the market clean. There's no way to tell what is going to happen next.

And at times like this...the best way to win is to not play at all. Wait till the tornado passes and then you got a better chance of figuring out which way the wind is going to blow.
Even today the market was going down but the hedge funds were too. The longs were going up.

It's very very frustrating.

We look for extremes and trend disruptives...it's how we profit from a bipolar reaction that the market always has. But lately it's been schizophrenic. Imaginary ups and downs. P/E ratio, cash flows, sales, and P/B mean nothing anymore.

And be very very careful with the SPACs. There's going to be a rule change concerning them. When you make a company public and have an IPO the rules for truth and honesty are such that you are transparent. Within a SPAC you can be blatantly lied to. Accounting practices can be nothing more than good intentions and well wishes instead of accepted practices. And the principals of the SPAC can walk off with huge chunks of undisclosed cash payments. Leaving the investors holding empty bags.

So...can you tell i don't like them? Wall Street is getting wind of the shakedowns as well and SPACs aren't getting treated like royalty anymore. There's going to be an "investigation" and allegations of fraud soon enough...then they will find an outrageous behaving scapegoat and make an example of him. Meanwhile others will be hiding off in tropical paradises.
Its coming... just wait and see.

 

[JohnDB]

Well...
I kinda thought that the VIX would be up tonight...and it is and the Dow is down.

But we will see what tomorrow brings.

Again...be very careful about entering this market for anything other than day trades.

The only thing up in a sustained manner is lumber and lean hogs.

 

[JohnDB]

Something is screwy with the market...

It's not making any sense... even for the craziness it usually has.

Ok...we had a margin call on a hedge fund and several banks are going to have to eat those losses. That happened and was watching that play out.
Then Biden tells us everything is just fine except for that bit of inflation...which promptly makes bonds spike and stocks tank....

Except for the Dow Jones Industrial average...it's at an all time high. But the Russell 2,000 is down...., like a LOT.

And where I can appreciate how the tech heavy Nasdaq can be down when the Dow is up... Nasdaq is fairly flat...just a tiny bit down.
Same with the S&P.

The Russell is a more broad indicator...it points to small cap stocks. Meaning that the smaller businesses aren't doing so well. The groundswell of support for the big caps is not there...it's all smoke and mirrors.

Tomorrow Biden is supposed to explain his infrastructure investment give away to his favorite cronies. Meaning that Caterpillar stock will do well. So will a few others.

But that Russell 2,000 index...that's troubling... meaning that there's a TON of weakness in the gains made today.

I know most of the stocks I was day trading today just ran out of gas. Everything was playing out just fine and then someone pulled the plug. (I think that it was Biden's speech on inflation that isn't here and 10 yr Bonds reacting to imaginary inflation)

It's a bit crazy out there...I'm going to have to be quicker on the trigger for when Biden talks...

 

[JohnDB]

Here's a good article covering the subject of the Russell 2000.

Russell 2000 Continues To Feel The Pressure | investing.com.

This just don't look right. Every recovery and advance in the Markets I can remember was led by small and micro-cap businesses...

Now they are lagging and big businesses are leading? Something is very wrong here.

 

[JohnDB]

Well the Russell fixed some of its issues today. And the market came back because of it.
So today I tweaked my strategy a bit. I'm going for some several day long positions...
One or two will be short term but I'm hoping for a few to be longer term holds that keep generating profits.
I tuned out a lot of the noise today. (We get tons of people telling us what stocks to buy)

And I get easily distracted...and that distraction made me miss out on a three day 25-30% runup of US Steel...

And that's because I have to process a ton of information on an ongoing basis...and I got distracted and forgot what I was doing. And when I got back to it today I seen my chart all marked up for entry and exits...and the stock performed exactly as I predicted. I had missed every penny of it.
*Sigh*

But... tomorrow is the last day of trading this week. Might take some profits...might let others cook a bit more.
Biden's plan? Who cares! They claimed that the market reacted to it...I couldn't see it.
There was a huge reaction from the Russell 2000 and Micron's earnings report than from his speech. That news played... also the spike in bonds played...but Biden revealing his plans? Not even a blip.

The hedge funds and SPACs are undergoing some huge scrutiny right now...and they need to. Wells Fargo is one of the few who came out unscathed from the bankruptcy this week. They proudly announced that they had no exposure to the bankruptcy... meaning that even if money is free they still want collateral for a loan. They have been tight for over 50 years...ain't changed a bit.

And I also have noticed...
Lately everyone is tuning out the valuations given by the "experts". I'm used to them being off by five to ten percent...but usually the market reacts to them. Haven't seen them get ignored before. But right now... everyone is ignoring them.

Several types of valuations. Many are computer generated based on moving averages, sector movement, and earnings reports. A few actually involve people making judgements...but the people usually have a vested interest in lying. And it's difficult to tell the difference between a glamour stock, meme stock, and just going up because it's a good company.
Which is why I turned off the noise, focused on my notes...and looked at charts and made evaluations based on that today...it looks like a winner so far. Hopefully it will work...Lord knows I've had trouble lately making money. And I was up today. Hopefully will be again tomorrow. I have to recover losses...(it's been a rough month)
But since my losses are really light, (I'm skiddish...but it's saved me this month) I should be able to recover quickly. Unlike others who have lost profits and half of their principle. (And their morals).

Still don't do marijuana, guns, or gambling...not a big fan of beer or tobacco either... even when it's Chinese tobacco markets. But that last one really tempted me big time.

 

[JohnDB]

Hey,
Another good day for the market. The Nasdaq had another positive day with a new high for the S&P and solid gains for the Nasdaq. (Which looks like a picture perfect entry point for a Wycoff Spring)

Next big test is the Jobs report tomorrow but I and the markets are off for Good Friday.

So no trading until Monday.

But there were some nice gains made today from glamour stocks that had good earnings. Micron was a leading story today as it's on the S&P.
The thing I don't understand is why there's some reluctance to picking up this stock. The corp guidance was for the positive news yesterday and all the analyst's are giving the stock a much higher valuation than it's currently trading at (as well as many others). But it seems to be falling on deaf ears.

The forward P/E ratio is so low for it's sector that it's a value play in a chip stock. Is Western Digital jealous or something? It's P/E ratio is fairly high and yet they seen fit to comment on the chip shortage that Micron is selling into. (Yes, Western Digital also makes the same chips)
The chip shortage that WD said is coming to an end soon is not going to end for two years. That's how long it takes to build out a chip factory. (Complicated and lots of complex equipment to install and wire in.... software vs hardware fights between engineers and electricians to sort out)

Several companies are busy expanding. Intel and TSM and Invidia and Micron and Western Digital all have expansion plans. And several others. Invidia really likes it because they hold the patents on most of the chips out there. So expansion by competitors doesn't hurt their feelings.

But back to the subject...is it because Micron is headquartered in Idaho and not Silicon Valley? Is it because they don't like the new figurehead? Or have the analyst's told too many lies? Pumping stocks just in time for a huge price drop... for a variety of self interests.
Or maybe it's because most analyst's charts are worthless in a struggling market...and they can't admit that they have no clue what to invest in except for ones that they personally have an interest in. (Even if it's not direct ownership... trading options is not owning stock)

 

[JohnDB]

Well the jobs report came out Friday...it was double the expected. Deliveries for electric cars was high as well.

So the VIX is below 20 atm.
The Dow and Russell are up... especially the Russell. It's up more than any future commodity is. Inflation is also going up but... Platinum is forming a nice W spring...hummmm...might need to jump in on that for a bit.

Otherwise I got a lot of money in the market... about half in.

So I ought to begin taking profits by Tuesday night. (I day trade...long term traders will continue on buying in through Wednesday's likely bad news.
At which point I'll join back in after the bad news through Friday's bad news...which is expected to flatten the growth.

I buy on the dips...but only good companies with good outlooks.
FOMOs give me money. Sell into strength and buy into weakness.
FOMOs buy strength and sell into weakness. Exactly the opposite of what makes a lot of money.

Buying a down stock that gets no news and riding it while it becomes a glamour stock heralded by all the analysts...that's how you make good money. 20% or better in a few days.

Pigs get fed slop and hogs get slaughtered.

So no advice from me on a particular stock. Besides...I'm an amateur and not a licensed professional.
But that doesn't mean that I'm a failure either. I don't get paid to write...and if these analysts were so good at picking stocks...would they spend all their time writing about stocks or would they just trade them?

 

[JohnDB]

Another good day for the market with what some people call a "follow on" day with good gains. S&P broke above it's 50 day moving average line...and the Russell broke out and then shrunk back.

I made some money...not a lot. Only had to cut one loser today but the others are all performing... howbeit ever slowly. Except for one sporting goods store...it's doing well. It's up 10% today...it was up almost 16% but shrank back too.

Chip stocks are definitely breaking out again. And most cyclicals seem to be lagging (but not all) quarantine ending stocks are a mixed bag at the moment. Airlines did well but others not so much. I think that it's time to look to the Fall as summer stocks begin to slow. I could be wrong...but this means tutors for those who didn't do so well in school this past year.

Also energy as fall and winter demands might pick up. Diamond Back energy gave up almost all of its gains today that it made Thursday...and Iran said that it would produce which kept prices down today.

Meaning that people are super skiddish.
Good jobs report...but we need more good stuff. Service sector is also doing well.

Dunno what it's going to take.