The state of Georgia got moved from "leaning to Trump" in my chart over to "leaning to Biden" yesterday when two new polls came out. It is still extremely close and could go either way; but the average of polls at RCP is now 0.4% in favor of Biden. Trump had been ahead for a long time, then Biden was ahead for a while, then Trump was ahead again, and now Biden's ahead again.
Current predicted number of electoral votes: Biden 375, Trump 163.
There are 7 states Trump could campaign in where Biden's lead isn't that big; but the sad truth for the Trump campaign is those add up only to 96 electoral votes. If you assume Trump could win those all, he'd have 259 votes to Biden's 279.
I checked the closing times of the polls in all the states. The election looks so lop-sided to me, it should be clear by 10 PM election night who won. We know how California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii will go before they even vote. There's 78 electoral votes right there, so if Biden has 192 votes earlier, before the west coast results are in, we'll know he won.
If you're looking for excitement by watching results roll in on TV, you may be disappointed. Trump should be ahead for the first hour or so when the first results come in, but those are states known to go Republican.
If there's excitement on election night, it will be on the streets; but I don't expect much there either. A few crazy people may try to cause trouble. I think it could come from both sides; but the FBI and Homeland Security are on the job, consulting with local and state law enforcement. The arrest of the people to kidnap the governor of Michigan and to attack the police there got nipped in the bud; and it's made the right-wingers more reluctant to take extreme action. Trump can call for his supporters to "monitor" the elections -- they could wind up arrested.
I heard some people BLM thought maybe they need to get involved -- I don't think that will amount to much either. BLM has already tarnished its image with a lot of people. Their failure to make sure all their protests were peaceful cost them some support. They know that. If they get involved in the election, it would make them even more unpopular -- not to mention that law enforcement, even in some liberal areas, is also getting weary of endless demonstrations.
I could be wrong about the level of nastiness on the streets this election; but I don't think it will be as bad as some people fear. Have you ever noticed how people often get scared -- then very little happens -- and they find something else to be scared about? Trump and the media both try to get people scared.